There is the issue of perception during game play (because of the effect of die rolls, principally.)
And then there is the DB reality:
Rafale (all versions), ATA/DATA values are 55/30 (the same as Eurofighter, for example.)
By comparison, the F-14B/D is 45/25.
As for Mica (all versions), its hit probability (pH) is 75.
By comparison, the AIM-54C Phoenix is 55.
Send an early fourth generation fighter up against a late 4.5 generation fighter, get bad die rolls, and viola ... these kind of results.