Yes, all the yesterday unconceivable fears are confirmed today

But my main fear is ever Morocco ...

Excellent spot, Enrique. I've linked this in the Armchair General discussion and here.

Excellent spot, Enrique. I've linked this in the Armchair General discussion and here.

 

Good done, thanks

Ghaddafy has ordered the destruction of oil facilities in Libya. If this is the case, I suspect that he thinks he's going down, and exercising a scorched earth option. There is doubt though whether these orders are even being carried out. As in being overridden by tribal leaders thumbing their noses at Ghaddafy (or showing the soles of their feet at him, a major Arab insult). If that is indeed the case, he has lost control more than he has realized. I am predicting that he will soon be meeting the same end as Ceaucescu.

At last a first hand recount about what's going in Libya and how the info are transmited:

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8...rss-mostpopular

More real news, but I doubt Ghadaffi is vanqished http://us.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL...20110223?ca=rdt

For me, is Aljazeera and the Islamist who are staging the unrest in the Muslim countries, keeping a very low profile for not scare the Western countries, as evidence is the absence of other actors (I only know US, UE and Israel are not staging the unrest. And my Moroccan friends/contacts says clearly the organizers are the Islamist).

I think when most time is passing, most probabilities Gadaffi keeps in power.

Aljazeera is pressing for the overthrowing of Gadaffi and forcing the news reports to say so, but clearly not a lot of real news today:

Plane carrying Ayse Gaddafi attempts to land but is forced to turn back after being denied permission.

Relatives fleeing?

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2...125540203.html#

 

Al Jazeera informing about the Libya crisis in a blog ... from Qatar:

Al Jazeera has read a copy of the doctoral dissertation of Saif Gaddafi, Muammar Gaddafi's son. The dissertation, on "The Role of Civil Society in the Democratisation of Global Governance Institutions" was submitted to the London School of Economics in 2007.

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/africa/2011/02/...g-libya-feb-23#

 

But, I insist, they are not real news, and without changes in the Libyan internal status-quo Gaddafi will keep in power, massacres or not massacres aside, the important issue (not for the victims and his relatives, of course) is the outcome the next few hours. Mubaraks resign to prevent a bloodbath in Egypt, but we known the inhuman nature of Gaddafi is from another nature ...

 

Meanwhile, in Yemen ....

Yemen MPs resign over violence.

Seven parliamentarians quit ruling party to protest against what they say is government violence against demonstrators.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleea...112793183.html#

Al Jazeera informing about the Libya crisis in a blog ... from Qatar:

 

The BBC are running a similar blog - from London. I don't get your argument.

 

It's very difficult to get reporters into Libya; Gaddafi banned them for a start.

Yes Silent Hunter, as in every dictatorship, in Libya the news and the reporters are mainly banned.

But in this moment I think we are spectators of a media war.

The news are very scarce, and for me, if they are not a clear victory of the opossition in the next 48 hours (my intuitive limit is the next friday afternoon), Gadaffi will keep in charge (and when he dies, his sons ....).

About the media wars:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/world/mi...t-m24libya.html

 

My idea is some media, as Al Jazeera, are doctoring news for support the opossition and the world opinion against Gadaffi, but they are not "real" news, I fear it's only a induced collective delusion, and the opossition to Gadaffi it's not improving his factual position for overthrow Gadaffi by the force (no doubts, for me Gadaffi is a narcissistic mad man, a proved terrorist, and the worst type of dictator, no doubting in kill openly his own people. But history tells us, as in the Tiananmen Square case, a dictatorship can prevail for years after shot openly against his own people in the streets).

More:

Two crew of a Sukhoi-22 ground attack jet ejected and allowed their plane to crash after refusing orders to bomb Benghazi, the eastern city where the revolution started.

(The Harpoon touch )

 

And sadly supporting my previous viewpoint, I fear:

Mohammed Ali Abdullah, deputy leader of the National Front for the Salvation of Libya, a leading exile group, said he was concerned that the parts of the army that had defected had shown no sign of willingness themselves to take the revolution on.

"We aren't seeing the army's different brigades trying to reinforce themselves to take on the Khamis Brigade and the mercenaries," he said.

"There has been a lot of disappointment with the role of the army that has defected - it has defected and then sat down to watch."

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/...ard-fight.html#

Generally, foreign reporters don't get banned from authoritarian regimes; they may well have minders, but they're rarely banned altogether - it just looks bad. The BBC regularly film nature programmes in the People's Republic of China and John Simpson (a veteran BBC war reporter) was in Tahrir Square. There are only a few places a globally respected organisation like the Beeb gets banned from; places such as Iran (The popular motoring show Top Gear did a Christmas special where the three presenters drove from Iraq to Israel. They wanted to go through Iran, but were refused access) and Burma.

 

I doubt this gets resolved one way or the others in the next 48 hours; I'm calling this a civil war already.

I doubt this gets resolved one way or the others in the next 48 hours; I'm calling this a civil war already.

 

For a Civil War we need two armed sides and with fighting spirit. I fear the African mercenaries had more of both than the Libyan people.

But it's only a very subjetive view.

Today was another day of impasse, perhaps tomorrow we will see some real news and progressions of one or other side ...

At last some real news and changes, and assestment of the revolutionary forces:

http://www.npr.org/2011/02/24/134034855/In...enghazi?ps=cprs

Col. Tarek Saad Hussein says the aim is to take Tripoli. But the obstacle right now is the city of Sirte, Gadhafi's hometown about halfway from Benghazi to the capital. It's heavily reinforced, he says.

Sirte is half-way between Tripoli and Benghazi. Could be Tripoli a city too far ?

The British government has been taking a kicking in the press for its handling of the evacuation of British workers in the country. Also, the Culture Secretary broke the common rule of not commenting on Special Forces operations...

The British government has been taking a kicking in the press for its handling of the evacuation of British workers in the country. Also, the Culture Secretary broke the common rule of not commenting on Special Forces operations...

 

They certainly are taking a kicking, looks like its finally getting into gear now, hopefully they can get the oil workers evacuated as well.