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I see I'm not the only with a perception of real and unreal news ....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/03/h...-_n_830890.html

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Wednesday that Al Jazeera is gaining more prominence in the U.S. because it offers "real news" -- something she said American media were falling far short of doing.
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Reports that Gadaffi forces are driving Rebels out of Brega and that they are close to Misrata, he could have re-taken control of most of the country before the UK/NATO/UN/whoever does anything about this.

God help the people in Benghazi if Gadaffi loyalists manage to get within striking distance.

BBC: BBC: Libyan troops driving rebels from Brega

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Yes, the situation is nearing my forecast of the past 23 February:

The news are very scarce, and for me, if they are not a clear victory of the opossition in the next 48 hours (my intuitive limit is the next friday afternoon), Gadaffi will keep in charge (and when he dies, his sons ....).

 

I was in Madrid the last friday in an anti-terrorism simposium,

http://iugm.es/fileadmin/user_upload/docs/.../diptico_01.pdf

and I saw the supposed experts are very disoriented and surprised about what is actually happening in the Arab World. Almost none public comment about the topic by the speechers, perhaps by fear of erroneous perceptions and later academic discredit. For me, as nobody in the simposium apparently was bold to reveal in public what his contacts known about who is staging the revolts (and I think that's because the Western and Israeli contacts known nothing), are clearly the Islamist forces working more or less in the dark ...

Only an speecher remembered Libya is from two years ago one of the most islamiced countries in the World (the habitual erroneous perception is the Gadaffi regime is now laicist and socialist, as was previoulsy), after some Gadaffi's recent islamist reforms, trying to keep his Government in charge of Libya, with apparence of righteous islamism.

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Latest BBC and Sky reports on the TV are that China, Russia and 5 other nations are expected to abstain from the vote and that the British and French Air Forces with logistical support from Arab Allies would launch the first strikes, vote scheduled for 22:00 GMT (an hour and 20 mins from now)

 

Also reports that Gaddafi has broadcast a radio message to residents of Benghazi saying that an attack will come tonight and there will be no mercy, if the resolution is passed I would expect to see British and French planes in the sky very quickly or I fear Benghazi is going to be a massacre.

 

Also an interesting note from earlier that the Libyan regime has apparently said that no civilian or military ships or aircraft would be safe in the Mediterranean if military action was launched, bit of a chilling thought that Gaddafi could start targeting civilian airliners...

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Latest BBC and Sky reports on the TV are that China, Russia and 5 other nations are expected to abstain from the vote and that the British and French Air Forces with logistical support from Arab Allies would launch the first strikes, vote scheduled for 22:00 GMT (an hour and 20 mins from now)

 

Also reports that Gaddafi has broadcast a radio message to residents of Benghazi saying that an attack will come tonight and there will be no mercy, if the resolution is passed I would expect to see British and French planes in the sky very quickly or I fear Benghazi is going to be a massacre.

 

Also an interesting note from earlier that the Libyan regime has apparently said that no civilian or military ships or aircraft would be safe in the Mediterranean if military action was launched, bit of a chilling thought that Gaddafi could start targeting civilian airliners...

 

Actually, they're saying 5 total, including Russia and China; you need 9 votes to pass a UNSC resolution with no votes against from the permanent five.

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Latest BBC and Sky reports on the TV are that China, Russia and 5 other nations are expected to abstain from the vote and that the British and French Air Forces with logistical support from Arab Allies would launch the first strikes, vote scheduled for 22:00 GMT (an hour and 20 mins from now)

 

Also reports that Gaddafi has broadcast a radio message to residents of Benghazi saying that an attack will come tonight and there will be no mercy, if the resolution is passed I would expect to see British and French planes in the sky very quickly or I fear Benghazi is going to be a massacre.

 

Also an interesting note from earlier that the Libyan regime has apparently said that no civilian or military ships or aircraft would be safe in the Mediterranean if military action was launched, bit of a chilling thought that Gaddafi could start targeting civilian airliners...

 

Actually, they're saying 5 total, including Russia and China; you need 9 votes to pass a UNSC resolution with no votes against from the permanent five.

 

Ah I must have mis-read!

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I suspect we'll see Enterprise pass through the Canal in a day or so. She'll need the sea room. I also expect we'll see Charles de Gualle depending on her operational status. Anyone know where the Italian carriers are?

 

Later

D

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UN Resolution #1973 has passed by 10 votes to 0, with 5 abstentions.

Is it too little, too late? No-fly may need participation of Egypt to be effective. They have around 200 F-16s with US-trained pilots and airbases close by. France and UK have few planes that can make the flight across the Med. And even fewer that they will make available. Italy has already [allegedly] refused use of facilities in their country. US is being vague (perhaps rightly so) about whether a carrier group is in the area. IF called upon US carrier pilots could decimate Libyan air power within 24 hours.

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This will be a very long week-end in Libya.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=212699

Rebel National Council head Mustafa Abdel Jalil told Al Jazeera television air strikes were essential to stop Gaddafi.

 

"We stand on firm ground. We will not be intimidated by these lies and claims... We will not settle for anything but liberation from this regime."

 

I see the future Libya splited in two countries, Libya and Cyrenaica, UN sponsored ...

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Is it too little, too late? No-fly may need participation of Egypt to be effective. They have around 200 F-16s with US-trained pilots and airbases close by. France and UK have few planes that can make the flight across the Med. And even fewer that they will make available.

 

In addition to Egypt, there's also several bases in Greece and an RAF facility in Cyprus. Not to mention enough bases in Italy to do the job.

 

Italy has already [allegedly] refused use of facilities in their country.

 

I think it's a bit early for that yet. I'd say that many nations in the region are probably crafting their responses to the No Fly Zone. I'd also like to know the just what the treaty between NATO and Italy says with regards the use of NATO bases in Italy. Bettino Craxi is quite dead and I don't think we'll see Berlusconi [sp?] call up Gadaffi and warn him that the first cycle is on it's way. Italy gets about 25% of it's oil from Libya so I can't say it's very cheap from there at the moment. In fact, oil isn't very cheap anywhere.....

 

US is being vague (perhaps rightly so) about whether a carrier group is in the area. IF called upon US carrier pilots could decimate Libyan air power within 24 hours.

 

Enterprise is in the Northern Red Sea. She is about 1000nm from Tripoli so if she's going to be involved she has to transit the canal.

Vinson is on Camel Station and isn't going anywhere due to commitments in Afghanistan and the situation in Bahrain.

Kearsage is in company with Ponce and is south of Cyprus. I'm assuming there's at least one DDG with her. Last I heard Stout was in the area.

Charles de Gualle's location is unknown but she recently [about 3 weeks ago] finished exercies in the Indian Ocean. So she could be in the area.

No idea where the Italian carriers are.

 

That's it for flight decks. The remaining US carriers are helping in Japan [Reagan and Essex], undergoing PIA [Eisenhower, due out in April], DPIA [Nimitz] or RCOH [Roosevelt, she's down for the duration, late 2012], are way out of position or are tied up in CONUS.

 

It's going to take more than one carrier to do the job if Italy doesn't allow the parties involved access to their turf.

 

Later

D

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