Is it too little, too late? No-fly may need participation of Egypt to be effective. They have around 200 F-16s with US-trained pilots and airbases close by. France and UK have few planes that can make the flight across the Med. And even fewer that they will make available.

 

In addition to Egypt, there's also several bases in Greece and an RAF facility in Cyprus. Not to mention enough bases in Italy to do the job.

 

Italy has already [allegedly] refused use of facilities in their country.

 

I think it's a bit early for that yet. I'd say that many nations in the region are probably crafting their responses to the No Fly Zone. I'd also like to know the just what the treaty between NATO and Italy says with regards the use of NATO bases in Italy. Bettino Craxi is quite dead and I don't think we'll see Berlusconi [sp?] call up Gadaffi and warn him that the first cycle is on it's way. Italy gets about 25% of it's oil from Libya so I can't say it's very cheap from there at the moment. In fact, oil isn't very cheap anywhere.....

 

US is being vague (perhaps rightly so) about whether a carrier group is in the area. IF called upon US carrier pilots could decimate Libyan air power within 24 hours.

 

Enterprise is in the Northern Red Sea. She is about 1000nm from Tripoli so if she's going to be involved she has to transit the canal.

Vinson is on Camel Station and isn't going anywhere due to commitments in Afghanistan and the situation in Bahrain.

Kearsage is in company with Ponce and is south of Cyprus. I'm assuming there's at least one DDG with her. Last I heard Stout was in the area.

Charles de Gualle's location is unknown but she recently [about 3 weeks ago] finished exercies in the Indian Ocean. So she could be in the area.

No idea where the Italian carriers are.

 

That's it for flight decks. The remaining US carriers are helping in Japan [Reagan and Essex], undergoing PIA [Eisenhower, due out in April], DPIA [Nimitz] or RCOH [Roosevelt, she's down for the duration, late 2012], are way out of position or are tied up in CONUS.

 

It's going to take more than one carrier to do the job if Italy doesn't allow the parties involved access to their turf.

 

Later

D

 

There were reports earlier in the week that Italy would refuse the use of its bases to enforce the no-fly zone, so I doubt we'll see Italian Carriers in action, its beginning to make David Cameron look a bit silly, HMS Ark Royal was decommissioned last week, I bet that Ark Royal with 9 or 10 Harriers could have been really useful in enforcing this no fly.

Italy has authorised the use of its bases; the RAF will also be operating out of Akrotiri in Cyprus. David Cameron has announced that Tornadoes and Typhoons will be used; those can't use Ark Royal anyway.

 

CdG recently returned from a deployment in the Indian Ocean; I think it's still in port.

Italy has authorised the use of its bases; the RAF will also be operating out of Akrotiri in Cyprus. David Cameron has announced that Tornadoes and Typhoons will be used; those can't use Ark Royal anyway.

 

CdG recently returned from a deployment in the Indian Ocean; I think it's still in port.

 

Just an update

Italian Defence Ministry announced Italy made 8 planes available for the coalition, 4 SEAD Tornadoes and 4 fighters (not specified, but maybe F-16).

 

Francesco

Also, CdG has now left to support operations.

As was forecasted, apparently now is more clear the link between protesters and islamic extremists:

from http://www.debka.com/article/20811/

(And yes, I known Debka can be a questionable source, but not in every case http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debka.com)

Senior Libyan rebel “officers” sold Hizballah and Hamas thousands of chemical shells from the stocks of mustard and nerve gas that fell into rebel hands when they overran Muammar Qaddafi’s military facilities in and around Benghazi

Tehran threw its support behind the anti-Qaddafi rebels because of this unique opportunity to get hold of the Libyan ruler’s stock of poison gas after it fell into opposition hands and arm Hizballah and Hamas with unconventional weapons without Iran being implicated in the transaction.

The first authoritative American source to refer to a Hizballah presence in Benghazi was the commander of US NATO forces Adm. James Stavridis. When he addressed a US Senate committee on Tuesday, March 29, he spoke of “telltale signs of the presence of Islamic insurgents led by Al-Qaeda and Hizballah” on the rebel side of the Libyan war. He did not disclose what they were doing there

Against this opinion, this article in Foreign Policy:

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011...as_rebels_wrong

Update at my forecast of 23 February 2011:

Now on 9 April 2011 we can see more clearly Gadaffi (or his sons, I remember also some sons of Saddam Hussein were killed in combat for sake of Iraq post-war stability) will keep the power in Libya, perhaps with Libya divided in Tripolitania+Fezzan, ruled by Gadaffi, and Cyrenaica, ruled by the insurgents, but only with the previous support and ulterior stabilization by UN ground forces.