Mgellis

Okay, I have just posted #6, so I'm halfway to my goal. It's time for OTHER people to start posting HUD-4 scenarios, too...

File Name: Pledge 6: The Matsu Incident 2015 File Submitter: Mgellis File Submitted: 08 Sep 2012 File Category: Scenarios A routine patrol for the Taiwanese Navy. Or, at least, it should have been... Image: The U.S. Navy guided missile destroyer USS Kidd (DDG-993) crossing Thimble Shoals in Chesapeake Bay; Released to Public ID: DNSC880921; Author: PH2 K. Bates, USN. The Kidd was eventually sold to Taiwan, where she serves as the Tso Ying (DDG-1803). Click here to download this file

File Name: Deep Blue Sea.pal File Submitter: Mgellis File Submitted: 07 Sep 2012 File Category: Tools/Docs An alternate pallate. It eliminates the depth markers for the water, making a clearer contrast between land and sea, and changes the background to a dark blue. (Revised 9/11/12) Click here to download this file

Just curious if there was any news about AGSI. Their website, http://www.computerharpoon.com/, simply says "We are having problems with our site ..." but it has been saying that for weeks. Does anyone know anything? Thanks. Mark

In 1980, leftist guerillas began a long and bloody campaign in Peru. As a scenario possibility...what if the Soviet Union had been pro-active in their support of the guerilllas, sending supplies, "military advsiors," etc., starting around 1981? First, how would they have done this? A full-scale invasion seems extremely unlikely. A blockade of Peruvian ports also seems unlikely, but the Soviets could probably have done this--a large visible task force and a squadron or two of submarines. Any thoughts on how plausible this is? The most likely to me seems a moderate form of support--effectively a task force that included supply ships, some way to move supplies in and out, and escorts. A couple of amphibious vessels and/or cargo ships with helicopters, a few escorts, a command vessel able to handle communications, etc., and a few submarines. How plausible is this? Any suggestions for vessels or submarines that are likely to have been part of this task force? A related question...the Soviets had a large number of smaller patrol craft (Grisha, etc.). These were, as I understand it, mostly used as patrol and coastal ASW vessels. Would the Soviets have deployed some of these as a force multiplier in this kind of mission, along with larger ("true warship") escorts? Assuming the Soviet Union employed this kind of task force, and was believed to be assisting the leftist rebels, what would happen? Would Peru take action? What would they do...assuming things like going to the UN had already failed. Would the United States help Peru? I can envision Peruvian and American forces on station, waiting for a carrier battle group to show up, but then, before the carrier and American airpower can arrive, something sparks a battle between them and the Soviet task force... Thoughts? Observations? Suggestions? Mark

Okay, that good to know...Egypt and Turkey will follow their own agendas (as all nations do) but are unlikely to work together. In fact, is is possible that one would try to prevent the other, just on the basis of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"--for example, Turkey attacks Syria and Egypt is one of the first to defend Syria, a fellow Arab country, from outside aggression (even if they were thinking of invading, too)? I suppose the real question is...on a scale of 1 to 10, how likely is it that Turkey and Egypt will become increasingly aggressive, either against the West or against other Arab nations in the region that are seen as rivals, threats, etc.? (And, in the case of Turkey, perhaps against other Black Sea nations, too.) A related question...how well does Egypt get along with Iran? How likely is a military alliance between these two nations? On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely is it they might ally against and attack or invade Saudi Arabia or one or more of othe other Gulf states like Oman? So, revised scenarios... 1) Turkey invades Cyprus...goes to war with Greece and perhaps the rest of the EU. 2) Egypt attacks or invades Libya 3) Egypt and Iran attack or invade Saudi Arabia or other Gulf States 4) Egypt (with or without Iran) attacks Israel 5) Turkey attacks and/or invades Syria 6) Turkey attacks Israel <-- I'm not sure this one is very likely...even if Turkey becomes radicalized, what would they gain from attacking Israel...of course, you could ask the same thing about Iran so I suppose it is not totally implausible... 7) Turkey attacks Bulgaria and/or other Black Sea nations 8) Egypt closes the Suez Canal to European shipping...EU responds with military force How likely are these scenarios? What others seem likely?

A couple of quick questions... First, on a scale of 1 to 10 (with 10 being "This will happen" and 1 being "Not in a million years"), how likely is it that we might see an Iran-style Islamic revolution in Turkey and Egypt by, say, 2016? Second, assuming these revolutions happened, on a scale of 1 to 10, how likely are the following events (either as isolated events or as a cluster of related, perhaps coordinated events)... A) Egypt does not close the Suez Canal, but does raise fees and starts making many costly and time-consuming inspections of ships from countries it does not like--in effect, they are waging economic war against the E.U., Israel, etc. Egypt attacks and/or invades (and tries to occupy) Libya C) Turkey invades and occupies Cyprus, establishing a Turkish Cypriot Republic (whose ports and airfields are suddenly full of Turkish ships and aircraft). D) Egypt and Turkey make a joint attack on Israel E) Egypt and Turkey make a joint attack on Syria (and possibly Lebanon and/or Jordan), seeking to become the joint de facto rulers of the region F) Following C, D, and/or E, assuming there was a hostile response from the E.U., the alliance of Turkey and Egypt responds by attacking targets in Greece, Italy, and possibly the south of France, primarily intending to sink their navies, wreck their air forces, etc. so they cannot attack them in the future (as opposed to trying to actually invade Greece, Italy, etc., which seems truly unlikely) Third, are there any other events that you think are likely to happen if Egypt and Turkey experienced an Islamic revolution? What did I miss? Thanks. Mark

I just wanted to say thanks, not only for the kind words, but for the quality of the AAR. This is exactly what I think an AAR should be: a clear and detailed blow-by-blow account of what happened when someone tried to complete the mission, along with an assessment of how challenging it was.

File Name: Pledge 5: Sao Tome 2018 File Submitter: Mgellis File Submitted: 02 Sep 2012 File Category: Scenarios In 2017, Nigeria invades the tiny island country of Sao Tome and Principe. China blocks any U.N. resolutions against its ally Nigeria. Early in 2018, the European Union decides to take action and sends EUROMARFOR to liberate Sao Tome and Principe. Note: Image of the Portuguese frigate NRP Corte Real; U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communications Specialist 1st Class James C. Davis (Released). Click here to download this file

Sorry, I did look...I must have missed it somehow. Mark

Thanks, Gunny, and sorry I missed it. (I wonder if I misspelled "Ouragan" in the original posting...I checked again and I still could not find it...)

Lockheed A-12 Black Eagle (Hypothetical) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_A-12 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YF-12 "The Lockheed A-12 was a reconnaissance aircraft built for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) by Lockheed's famed Skunk Works, based on the designs of Clarence "Kelly" Johnson. The A-12 was produced from 1962 to 1964, and was in operation from 1963 until 1968. The single-seat design, which first flew in April 1962, was the precursor to both the twin-seat U.S. Air Force YF-12 prototype interceptor and the famous SR-71 Blackbird reconnaissance aircraft. The aircraft's final mission was flown in May 1968, and the program and aircraft retired in June of that year. Officially secret for over forty years, the CIA began declassifying A-12 program details for release in 2007" --Wikipedia Another "what if" aircraft...can you imagine an interceptor version of the SR-71? Even if they only built a couple of squadrons, it could be a game changer because of its speed and range. (I have no idea whether or not it would have been a good dogfighter, but it would certainly have been able to run away if it got into trouble!) ANW HUD 4 v1.1 b10

Let L-410 Turbolet http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let_L-410 "The Let L-410 Turbolet is a twin-engined short-range transport aircraft, manufactured by the Czech aircraft manufacturer LET, mostly used for passenger transport. Since 1969 more than 1100 airframes have been produced." --Wikipedia Another widely used light transport that might be worth including someday. ANW HUD 4 v1.1 b10

Lockheed JetStar http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_JetStar "The Lockheed JetStar (company designations L-329 and L-1329; designated C-140 in USAF service) is a business jet produced from the early 1960s through the 1970s. The JetStar was the first dedicated business jet to enter service. It was also one of the largest aircraft in the class for many years, seating ten plus two crew. " --Wikipedia Another light transport that is not essential right now, but it was widely used, and is still used by some countries, I think, so I figure it might be added. ANW HUD 4 v1.1 b10

Lockheed TriStar (RAF) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_TriStar_%28RAF%29 The Tri-Star is in the database, but the Tanker loadout seems to be missing. Should the loadout be added to the existing platform or should a new tanker version be added? ANW HUD-4 v1.1 b10

Vickers VC10 (K3) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vickers_VC10 The VC-10 is in the HUD-4, but the tanker loadout seems to be missing. Should it be added to the existing platform, or should a new tanker version be added? ANW HUD 4 v1.1 b10

Fairchild C-123 Provider http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairchild_C-123_Provider "The C-123 Provider is an American military transport aircraft designed by Chase Aircraft and subsequently built by Fairchild Aircraft for the United States Air Force. In addition to its USAF service, which included later service with the Air Force Reserve and Air National Guard, it also went on to serve most notably with the United States Coast Guard and various air forces in South East Asia. During the Vietnam War, the aircraft was used to spray Agent Orange." --Wikipedia ANW HUD 4 v1.1 b10

Shenyang J-5 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenyang_J-5 "The Shenyang J-5 (Chinese: 歼击机-5; pinyin: Jianjiji-5; literally "Fighter-5"), originally designated Dongfeng-101 - (East Wind-101), and also Type 56 before being designated J-5 in 1964, is a Chinese-built single-seat jet interceptor and fighter aircraft derived from the Soviet Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-17. The J-5 was exported as the F-5. The aircraft's NATO reporting name is "Fresco"" --Wikipedia The F-5 is in the HUD-4 database...is the J-5 different enough to need its own entry? ANW HUD 4 v1.1 b10

Boeing KC-767 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_KC-767 "The Boeing KC-767 is a military aerial refueling and strategic transport aircraft developed from the Boeing 767-200ER. The tanker received the designation KC-767A in 2002, after being selected by the US Air Force initially to replace older KC-135Es. In December 2003, the contract was frozen and later canceled due to corruption allegations." --Wikipedia Only a few built, but Japan flies them. I thought I had posted this one but I checked and I did not find it so I guess I forgot. ANW HUD 4 v1.1 b10

Boeing 787 Dreamliner http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_787_Dreamliner "The Boeing 787 Dreamliner is a long-range, mid-size wide-body, twin-engine jet airliner developed by Boeing Commercial Airplanes. It seats 210 to 290 passengers, depending on the variant. Boeing states that it is the company's most fuel-efficient airliner and the world's first major airliner to use composite materials for most of its construction" --Wikipedia Again, hardly essential, but there are 800+ firm orders for this aircraft...it is probably going to be one of the standard transports for the next 30 or 40 years. ANW HUD 4 v1.1 b10

Boeing 777 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_777 "The Boeing 777 is a long-range wide-body twin-engine jet airliner manufactured by Boeing Commercial Airplanes. It is the world's largest twinjet and has a capacity of over 300 passengers, with a range of 5,235 to 9,380 nautical miles (9,695 to 17,370 km), depending on model. " --Wikipedia Hardly essential, but it is such a widely used platform (more than 1,000 built so far) that it makes sense to add it someday. ANW HUD 4 v1.1 b10

Dassault Ouragan http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dassault_Ouragan "The Dassault M.D.450 Ouragan (French: Hurricane) was the first French-designed jet fighter-bomber to enter production, playing a key role in resurgence of the French aviation industry after World War II. The Ouragan was operated by France, Israel, India and El Salvador. While in Israeli service it participated in both the Suez Crisis, Six-Day War and the attack to U.S. ship Liberty." --Wikipedia I could have sworn I posted this one, but I searched and did not find it, so I guess I just forgot. ANW HUD 4 v1.1 b10