Libya No Fly Zone

[CV32]

The resolution actually permits "any necessary means" to protect civilians, so Coalition forces could attack ground forces as well.

 

Yes, I'm aware of that, from the air at least. But ...

 

... eventually those aircraft will go away. And the Libyans are back to shooting at each other, or whatever other weapon they can get their hands on.

[Silent Hunter UK]

The resolution actually permits "any necessary means" to protect civilians, so Coalition forces could attack ground forces as well.

 

Yes, I'm aware of that, from the air at least. But ...

 

... eventually those aircraft will go away. And the Libyans are back to shooting at each other, or whatever other weapon they can get their hands on.

 

Ah, sorry, my mistake. At that point, we hopefully will have a political solution on the ground.

[CV32]

Text of the UN Security Council Resolution 1973 can be viewed here, courtesy of Information Dissemination.

[VCDH]

I have some musings for the long term.....

 

1. Boots on the ground, as attractive as they are to me, aren't really an option. The rebels have already told the West that.

 

2. While their intentions are good, and something we agree with, [Gadaffi either captured or turning up dead isn't all that bad right?], the rebels are nothing more than an armed rabble.

 

3. Gadaffi's armed forces [of which I have little data on] are highly trained, typical of 'loyal' units in many middle eastern nations. Rabble can't stand up to that, and were losing ground.

 

4. A quick look at Google earth will show just how bad a position the rebels are in. Fighting has been reported around Ajdabiya which is a road hub, the capture of which [if it hasn't fallen already] gives Gadaffi forces the ability to flank rebel positions around Benghazi and proceed to Tobruk via the down of Adam [which has an air base]. The capture of Tobruk and control of the Ajdabiya-Adam road would effectively surround rebel forces in Benghazi. I'm no ground warfare expert but if I can figure that out then you can be certain that a lot of other people have too.....

 

It's interesting to note that rebel forces were holding their own until loyalist air power came into play. After that, it all went down hill for rebel forces. Removing Gadaffi's air power from the equation at the very least delays the defeat of rebel forces in Eastern Libya. It's well known that many nations have special forces in the region [Egypt, Denmark, and the UK for certain. Canada has forces 'in the region', and it's a pretty safe bet that the US has forces in country]. Egypt has acknowledged that it's helping to train rebel forces in resisting loyalist troops and it's a major function of special forces to act in that capacity [as a force multiplier].

 

There are a lot of Marines on those Kearsage and Ponce that can probably do that as well.

 

So what the West is doing is buying time for the rebels to regroup, train, and perhaps become something more than an armed rabble that specializes in shooting what limited ammunition they have into the air for the benefit of television cameras. The recently announced Libyan 'ceace fire' [i'll believe it when I see it] really means nothing because it's better to live today and fight tomorrow, especially against the coming NATO attacks. The open ended nature of the UN resolution gives the West some leeway but that will vary depending on how united the players are. Given the nature of the UN, I am not optimistic of any united front staying together for long. The test will come with loyalist forces conduct their next major attack on rebel positions, probably some time in the future, once the pattern of NATO operations is set.

 

The good news here is that the sheer distance of the Ajdabiya-Adam road [375 km or so] allows rebel forces to harrass loyalist forces attempting to move along the road. I don't know if loyalist forces have the manpower or logistics to hold the road however.

 

Later

D

[Silent Hunter UK]

Al-Jazeera reports several loud explosions outside Tripoli.

 

One possibility for those are stand-off missile strikes...

[HUD3]

Has anyone at the UN read the charter that governs the organisation?

 

Chapter I Article 2, clause 7 of this chapter re-emphasises the fact that only the UN Security Council has the power to force any country to do anything by stating that "Nothing contained in the present Charter shall authorise the United Nations to intervene in matters which are essentially within the domestic jurisdiction of any state or shall require the Members to submit such matters to settlement under the present Charter; but this principle shall not prejudice the application of enforcement measures under Chapter VII." (Only the Security Council can institute Chapter VII enforcement measures.)

 

 

Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter sets out the UN Security Council's powers to maintain peace. It allows the Council to "determine the existence of any threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression" and to take military and non-military action to "restore international peace and security".

 

The Chinese are right, this a domestic dispute within Libya. There is no need to, "restore international peace and security".

 

Most of us live in somewhat functioning democracies. If you awoke tomorrow to armed "rebels" on the street outside your house, would you condemn the army/police for restoring order? We know NOTHING about these "rebels" except for one thing. They really need air support!! Why are we in the, "west" so simple minded that we will rush to aid a "group" we know next to nothing about, especially their plan for the future of their country. How would people feel if we intervened, helped the rebels win and Gaddafi was replaced with a religious based ruling elite? That's called back to square one or square -1.

 

If people want to kill each other in their own country, that's their business. In Australia at least, we're smart enough to never have given "civil" war even a second's consideration. Canada falls into our category, most of the rest of the forum's members can't claim that one. I say we stay out and ignore the mess that isn't ours. I'm reminded of a sign we had in a laboratory I worked in many years ago. "Clean up after yourself, your Mother doesn't work here."

 

Cheers

 

Darren

[HUD3]

Anyone unaware might like to check this article in wikipedia out. It's the, "How to fight in Libya Handbook" courtesy of the 2nd AIF's 6th Division...

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Compass

 

That's how you do it.

 

Cheers

 

Darren

[CV32]

Anyone unaware might like to check this article in wikipedia out. It's the, "How to fight in Libya Handbook" courtesy of the 2nd AIF's 6th Division...

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Compass

 

That's how you do it.

Cheers

Darren

 

Yeah, but where we gonna get the Matildas and the Tommies to drive em?

[Silent Hunter UK]

Has anyone at the UN read the charter that governs the organisation?

 

Chapter I Article 2, clause 7 of this chapter re-emphasises the fact that only the UN Security Council has the power to force any country to do anything by stating that "Nothing contained in the present Charter shall authorise the United Nations to intervene in matters which are essentially within the domestic jurisdiction of any state or shall require the Members to submit such matters to settlement under the present Charter; but this principle shall not prejudice the application of enforcement measures under Chapter VII." (Only the Security Council can institute Chapter VII enforcement measures.)

 

 

Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter sets out the UN Security Council's powers to maintain peace. It allows the Council to "determine the existence of any threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression" and to take military and non-military action to "restore international peace and security".

 

The Chinese are right, this a domestic dispute within Libya. There is no need to, "restore international peace and security".

 

Considering we've got refugees swarming over the borders and oil prices hitting $114, I would say "international peace and security" is being jeopardised.

[CV32]

Considering we've got refugees swarming over the borders and oil prices hitting $114, I would say "international peace and security" is being jeopardised.

 

The clause could be interpreted any number of ways, and usually is, for one reason or another.

 

One wonders, for example, why the same standards aren't applied to what is happening in places like the Ivory Coast.

[HUD3]

Considering we've got refugees swarming over the borders and oil prices hitting $114, I would say "international peace and security" is being jeopardised.

 

Libya produces approximately 2% of the planet's oil production. The oil price increase might just be described as gouging.

 

Welcome to my world with the refugees, enjoy them as they deconstruct your society and culture. It's a lot of fun to watch...

 

Cheers

[Desertfox]

Bases in Italy are available. Flying from Sicily will make the distance for land-based planes much better. Seems like most of NATO has fallen in line to either participate or at least not to object.

First round may be with cruise missiles but it will take more than that to do enough. SEAD missions to take out radars would seem to be next order of business.

The 'cease-fire' announced by Gadhafi would seem to be as much fiction as most of his statements.

 

If Western planes fly over artillery units on the roads heading for Benghazi, and get shot at, is that enough justification to bomb the artillery??

 

The Libyan army, outside of a few 'elite' brigades, is considered to be poorly trained and equipped. Unfortunately that would probably be most of the forces available to the rebels. There's supposed to be several army units in E. Libya that are not taking orders from Gadhafi, but not helping the rebels either. Maybe they can be motivated, but it could be they will just drop their weapons and melt away.

I have a feeling it will come to drawing "a line in the sand" on the road to Benghazi. And stating that the Libyan army can go no farther or in the name of protecting civilians they will be targets.

[chrism_scotland]

Pro Gaddafi forces have entered Benghazi, UK, French and US airpower needs to get over Libya within hours of theres going to be a massacre.

[Silent Hunter UK]

Bases in Italy are available. Flying from Sicily will make the distance for land-based planes much better. Seems like most of NATO has fallen in line to either participate or at least not to object.

First round may be with cruise missiles but it will take more than that to do enough. SEAD missions to take out radars would seem to be next order of business.

The 'cease-fire' announced by Gadhafi would seem to be as much fiction as most of his statements.

 

If Western planes fly over artillery units on the roads heading for Benghazi, and get shot at, is that enough justification to bomb the artillery??

Yes, I would say so.

 

BBC have some dramatic footage of what looks like a MiG-23 being shot down over Benghazi; the pilot ejected before impact. It appears it may have been a rebel aircraft.

[CV32]

BBC have some dramatic footage of what looks like a MiG-23 being shot down over Benghazi; the pilot ejected before impact. It appears it may have been a rebel aircraft.

 

Definitely a MiG-23. I didn't see a smoke trail from the ground, but it was quite distant.