Desertfox Posted March 17, 2011 Report Share Posted March 17, 2011 As reported on the News, Security Council passes the No-Fly zone resolution 10-0 with 5 abstentions (Russia and China were 2 of the abstentions). So now what ??? Claims have been made of Arab support. Is Egypt likely to provide fighter-bomber support such as F16s? Or use of airbases? How much can France and UK bring if they can't use bases in Italy or Egypt? Can or will Saudis help if they can fly from closer airports? US should not be going alone to fly the cover (personal opinion here). I realize these are political questions as much as military..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desertfox Posted March 18, 2011 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2011 I'll throw out a starting position - and a question. IF the parties that want to enforce the no-fly zone act quickly, objective would be to protect the East Libya area centered around Benghazi. And to degrade the Libyan air forces. If they don't act quickly, may be nothing left to protect. Question. Forces available to Libya. Do they have anything newer than Mig-23s? Or any high-quality SAM systems? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyE Posted March 18, 2011 Report Share Posted March 18, 2011 Question. Forces available to Libya. Do they have anything newer than Mig-23s? Or any high-quality SAM systems? Probably a fairly decent OOB estimate http://www.inss.org.il/upload/%28FILE%291275907784.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CV32 Posted March 18, 2011 Report Share Posted March 18, 2011 Question. Forces available to Libya. Do they have anything newer than Mig-23s? Or any high-quality SAM systems? Much of their air force is either inoperational or in storage. I suspect a fairly small number of fixed wing aircraft and helicopters (and pilots) are performing the bulk of the air strikes reported in the news. HG member HUD3 posted a rundown here. Sean O'Connor over at the IMINT & Analysis blog did an overview of the Libyan SAM network back in May 2010. You can find that here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desertfox Posted March 18, 2011 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2011 Much of their air force is either nonoperational or in storage. I suspect a fairly small number of fixed wing aircraft and helicopters (and pilots) are performing the bulk of the air strikes reported in the news. HG member HUD3 posted a rundown here. Sean O'Connor over at the IMINT & Analysis blog did an overview of the Libyan SAM network back in May 2010. You can find that here. Thanks for the links to the rundown. Yes I suspect the active aircraft and helos are on the low side. And the number of pilots willing to attack their own people may be low too. The news reports seem to suggest airstrikes of one to a few airplanes. In the open desert against forces that may number only in the hundreds, it may still be effective. I was wondering if anybody was trying to slip the rebels some shoulder-fired SAMS (unofficially of course) just to make it a bit more expensive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAK Posted March 18, 2011 Report Share Posted March 18, 2011 Enforcing the no-fly zone will mean having on the ground some forward observer elements, establishing some links with opposition. So it would be a first step in a direct land intervention. As to opposition - its armed forces are non-existent, these are only improvised rag-tag groups, without c3, hq hierarchy, with only few heavy equipment. Reducing capabilites of the Ghaddafi airforce and giving to the oppositon some sort of CAS won't make much difference. The only thing that could be achieved this way is a stalemate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VCDH Posted March 18, 2011 Report Share Posted March 18, 2011 Overnight developments on the Libyan issue: Egypt will not intervene militarily. [Reuters] Canada to send a detachment of six CF-18 aircraft to assist in the No Fly Zone, possibly to be based in Italy [Globe and Mail] French gov't spokesperson indicates that military action to come 'within hours' [AFP] Noway to be involved in a manner yet to be determined. [Al Jazeera] Sweden will not be involved for now [Radio Sweden] Denmark will be sending F-16s to assist in the No Fly Zone [DPA] Libyan military airfields is on the target list under the No Fly Zone. Italy has opened it's bases for operations against Libya. Air strikes will be launched from French and Italian air bases within hours [Al Arabiya] Air strikes against Libya involving US, French, UK and Canadian aircraft have completed planning and will begin operations in 'a few hours' from Corsica and Sicily. [RIA Novosti] Germany skeptical of military intervention. Poland to provide non-military support only. Russian participation an option. [AFP] Libyan airspace closed [Al Arabiya] RAF due to send Tornado aircraft armed with 'precision weapons' from RAF Marham and RAF Lossiemouth [AFP] Netherlands to join any military operation against Libya. Contribution to take whatever form the international community requests. [Nos News] Later D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silent Hunter UK Posted March 18, 2011 Report Share Posted March 18, 2011 Latest developments from the UK, where David Cameron has made a statement: * Tornadoes, Typhoons, tankers and surveillance aircraft to be used. * A vote on the motion on this matter on Monday, but forces may well be involved before then. * The opposition Labour Party will support this; this vote will go through easily with only limited opposition from some backbenchers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyE Posted March 18, 2011 Report Share Posted March 18, 2011 I think the fat kid got off the far end of the teeter-totter and the slippery slope is now in effect Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VCDH Posted March 18, 2011 Report Share Posted March 18, 2011 heh....It's interesting to note that the Libyans just called a ceace-fire but they are still sending "anti-terror" units into Benghazi. Just because there's no planes flying doesn't mean there's no ground operations underway..... Fighting continues in As-Zuwaytinah which lies between Ajdabiya and Benghazi. A correspondent reported the sound of constant bombing, with Libyan planes seen over the town. There are also unconfirmed reports that the Libyan navy has taken up aggressive positions just off the coast of the town.[bBC] Fire support I guess....they have alot of 76mm guns. Later D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silent Hunter UK Posted March 18, 2011 Report Share Posted March 18, 2011 heh....It's interesting to note that the Libyans just called a ceace-fire but they are still sending "anti-terror" units into Benghazi. Just because there's no planes flying doesn't mean there's no ground operations underway..... Fighting continues in As-Zuwaytinah which lies between Ajdabiya and Benghazi. A correspondent reported the sound of constant bombing, with Libyan planes seen over the town. There are also unconfirmed reports that the Libyan navy has taken up aggressive positions just off the coast of the town.[bBC] Fire support I guess....they have alot of 76mm guns. Later D It looks like an attempt to buy time from where I'm sitting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CV32 Posted March 18, 2011 Report Share Posted March 18, 2011 Just because there's no planes flying doesn't mean there's no ground operations underway..... This is the critical flaw in any 'no fly zone', imho. Even without air, there are other ways to exert painful pressure on a rebel force. And, even if airpower is brought to bear against pro Qaddafi forces, eventually those aircraft will go away. And the Libyans are back to shooting at each other, or whatever other weapon they can get their hands on. My cynical two cents. In the interim, I will offer 'good luck' and prayers to the CF-18 flyboys as they head off. Who wouldn't want to go to the Mediterranean in the middle of a Canadian March? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VCDH Posted March 18, 2011 Report Share Posted March 18, 2011 It looks like an attempt to buy time from where I'm sitting. Agreed. Despite what we've been seeing in the news it's gonna take at least a day for aircraft to set up shop in Italy. The rumors that planning has been completed probably indicates contingencies that already existed. I haven't heard of any command structure set up yet but this could be a NATO op. Later D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silent Hunter UK Posted March 18, 2011 Report Share Posted March 18, 2011 Just because there's no planes flying doesn't mean there's no ground operations underway..... This is the critical flaw in any 'no fly zone', imho. The resolution actually permits "any necessary means" to protect civilians, so Coalition forces could attack ground forces as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HUD3 Posted March 18, 2011 Report Share Posted March 18, 2011 Libya has declared a cease fire, supposedly due to it being a member of the UN and having to abide by its decisions! Full report here: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03...?section=justin Cheers Darren Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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