The problem is that the RoK must make some sort of response or they look a) weak in the eyes of the NKs [very very bad] and for national morale.

 

The economic path that is being taken today is really the only option short of a war [which I really think is a NK bluff given the disparity in technology]. I suspect that we'll see some bolder moves by NK forces for the next little while. ISTR hearing about how NK soldiers were making faces and gestures after their 'nuclear test'. I also think that a UN solution is no solution either.

 

There is no doubt based on the published pictures that it was some sort of external explosion. I wonder about the corrosion on the recovered remains of the NK 'torpedo' too. That being said there is only two possibilities IMHO, that of a torpedo [either an older Soviet model or a knock off of a Chinese one] or a mine. Of the latter, a moored [drifting?] influence mine is probably the most likely option given the type of damage.

 

On the plus side, many navies are going to look hard at their ASW capabilities after this.

 

It's going to be an interesting few days nevertheless.

 

Later

D

I wonder about the corrosion on the recovered remains of the NK 'torpedo' too.

 

Depending on the Quality of the used material and the waterquality there might be heavy corrosion.

 

Look at the pics of the Cheoan side, it shows lots of rust....

 

BTW a normal quality rollerbearing as used in most 2 stroke engines will show signs of corosion after some hours after a recoverd engine left the water!

The corrosion apparent on the alleged torpedo do not give me any concern.

 

I do not expect the internal metal components would have been painted (and would therefore have been subject to the rapid action of surface rust), and an explosion would have exposed and gouged any metal anyway.

 

Also, as Rene pointed out, the recovered portions of the Cheonan showed quite a bit of rust where her hull was scraped and banged about on the ocean floor.

 

Finally, the alleged torpedo has been sitting on the bottom for longer than the warship.

 

Some folks were raising questions about whether any large pieces of the torpedo would have been remained after the explosion, but as I understand it, much of the blast and shockwave would have been directed outward and upward. What was left were the heavier, more solid pieces.

Do people really think that when torpedo explodes it just completely ceases to exist? Of course there would be chunks of shrapnel of which some would be large enough to recover. Torpex residue would be a clue too, as the explosive always leaves some type of evidence...simple forensics.

I was commenting on the excessive [white] corrosion that I saw, specifically on the propellers.

 

I suppose the next question is....why shoot at the ROK?

 

Later

D

From DefenseNews

 

China Refuses To Sanction N. Korea Over Cheonan

By JUN KWANWOO, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

Published: 30 May 2010 12:26

 

SEOGWIPO, South Korea - China resisted pressure on May 30 from South Korea and Japan to censure North Korea publicly for the sinking of a warship, calling only for regional tensions over the incident to be defused.

 

Host President Lee Myung-Bak and Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama teamed up at the two-day summit to nudge China's Premier Wen Jiabao to declare Pyongyang responsible for the March sinking of the South Korean corvette.

 

But Wen gave no sign that China is ready to back U.N. Security Council action against its ally over the sinking, which cost 46 lives.

 

"The urgent task now is to defuse the impact of the Cheonan incident, change the tense situation and avoid clashes," Wen told a joint news conference on the southern resort island of Jeju.

 

"China will actively communicate with relevant parties and lead the situation to help promote peace and stability in the region, which fits our common and long-term interests best."

 

South Korea announced reprisals including a trade cut-off after international investigators reported May 20 that a North Korean submarine fired a heavy torpedo to sink the Cheonan.

 

The North denies involvement and has responded to the reprisals with threats of war, fueling regional tensions.

 

In Pyongyang on May 30, some 100,000 North Koreans held a rally accusing Seoul of heightening cross-border tensions over the sinking, according to the North's state broadcasting network monitored by Yonhap news agency.

 

The rally was led by slogans denouncing President Lee as a traitor, it said.

 

Wen, whose country is the North's economic lifeline, has been cautious since arriving in South Korea on May 28.

 

At a meeting with Lee that day he said Beijing would, before determining its position, review the results of the international investigation into the Cheonan's sinking but would not protect whoever was responsible.

 

Lee said in Jeju that he expected "wise co-operation" from neighboring countries in handling the disaster.

 

According to his senior spokesman Lee Dong-Kwan, Lee also told the summit: "We are not afraid of war, but we do not want war either. We have no intention to go to war."

 

Hatoyama, whose government on May 28 announced new sanctions against the North, said the three leaders agreed that "this is a serious issue related to peace and stability in Northeast Asia".

 

South Korea, at least in public, appeared fairly satisfied with the outcome of the Jeju summit.

 

"The inclusion of those remarks on the Cheonan in the joint press announcement in itself has significance," Lee's spokesman said.

 

But Paik Haksoon, of the Sejong Institute think-tank, said Wen's comments "indicate that China is still questioning the authenticity and authority of the investigation."

 

"There would be no point in taking this issue to the U.N. Security Council without securing support from China in advance," Paik said.

 

Numerous countries have condemned the North for the sinking, one of the worst military attacks on the South since the 1950-53 war.

 

The North says Seoul faked evidence to incite tensions and boost its support before local elections this week.

 

South Korea, the United States and Japan need the support of veto-wielding member China to sanction - or, at least, to censure - the North at the Security Council.

 

The South's reprisals include preparations to resume cross-border loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts. The North has threatened to shell the loudspeakers if the broadcasts go ahead.

 

The North has cut all ties with the South, scrapped pacts aimed at averting accidental flare-ups along their disputed sea border and vowed to attack any intruding ships.

 

It has threatened to shut down a jointly run industrial park at Kaesong, the last reconciliation project still operating.

 

The South plans to send a letter to the chairman of the UN Security Council this week, an unidentified official told Yonhap news agency.

 

Japan's Hatoyama had promised to fully support Seoul when the case is referred to the council, his spokesman told AFP.

 

Hatoyama had also stated clearly that the resumption of six-party nuclear talks is unthinkable until the North offers a clear apology for attacking the Cheonan, South Korean officials said.

I was commenting on the excessive [white] corrosion that I saw, specifically on the propellers.

 

Zinc oxide? Would the propellers be galvanized?

I was commenting on the excessive [white] corrosion that I saw, specifically on the propellers.

 

Zinc oxide? Would the propellers be galvanized?

 

Or they are made of AlMg .....

 

THis alloy also tends to something looking like white corrosion of Zinc!

 

galvanisation of the props with zinc (used for sacrifical anodes) would speed up the corrosion process, so it makes no sense.

 

And the blades look rather thick => typical for AL-Props compared to stainless steel or nibral...

Or they are made of AlMg ..... THis alloy also tends to something looking like white corrosion of Zinc! galvanisation of the props with zinc (used for sacrifical anodes) would speed up the corrosion process, so it makes no sense. And the blades look rather thick => typical for AL-Props compared to stainless steel or nibral...

 

Thanks, Rene, that makes sense. Its good to have folks around who are knowledgeable about marine engines and propellers!