0:00:0 Range 70.0nm

2x Mirages flying at Low altitude crusing at 516kts pick up 2x F-15's flying CAP (Medium altitude) at a range of 70.0 nm on their radar. Radar LOS is 135nm and detection is automatic due to intermeadiate turns. The F-15's radar does not have a chance to detect the smaller Mirage until the range is 25.0nm.

 

0:04:0 Range 30.0nm

4 minutes later the range has decreased to 30.0nm and the Mirages drop further to Very Low altitude (approx 30 meters) and are literally skimming the ground (wanting to avoid being picked up at all by the F-15's). Each engagement turn a roll must be made against the "crash" table on page 3-8. The chance of a crash is 5% for each and in each 30 second turn the planes travel 2.15nm.

 

0:05:0 Range 26.0nm

Both Mirages have passed 2 crash rolls each. The mirages are about to break the 25nm range barrier, which means the F-15's now have a chance to detect the intruders.

 

0:05:0 Range 24.0nm

Both Mirages pass crash rolls.

F-15's have a 60% chance of detecting the Mirage. There are a few big points coming up here.

 

A) Each F-15 has a 60% chance of detecting each Mirage. So thats 4 rolls, and any under 60% results in a detection. Its worth assigning rolls by specific aircraft against specific opponants so that if 2 succesful detections occur you know if they were both against the same aircraft (so one is picked up while the other isnt) or if the rolls are against different craft then both are picked up.

 

The Mirages dropped to Very low altitude to try and delay being detected. But working it through now i found the lower range didnt impact on the F-15's chances! Radar detection range is based on aircraft size and the radar LOS table. Plane size's didnt change, and the altitudes in play meant the radar range is less than the radar LOS so it never came into play. I also discovered the Mirages can only fly at very low altitude if visability is 25% + (3.3.4.2).

 

The result of the detection rolls had each F-15 detecting one Mirage each, and each F-15 detecting a different Mirage. I wonder if the F-15s know they have detected 1 each of the 2 planes? Or if they think they have picked up the same target? (anybody?).

0:05:5

1st Move = Mirages climb a level to Low altitude (no use taking a crash risk if there is no benefit). Range 23.0nm

Detect = F-15A picking up both Mirages (i guess they know they have 2 opponants now). F-15B still hasnt picked up Mirage A but has Mirage B on radar. The Mirages do not know if they have been detected yet because RWR only pick up attack radars (4.3).

2nd move = Range closes to 22.0nm

 

Fast forward

0:11:0 Range 11.0nm

1st move = 10.0nm (which brings the F-15 just within range of its sidewinder)

1st fire = (6.3.3.2) Missile combat. F-15A fires at MirageA with an allaspect missile.

Detection = due to the firing of a missile, the Mirages know the game (or at least surprise is up).

2nd Move = Range 9.0nm for the planes. Missile moves off at 1434kts and closes to 4.0nm (!)

 

0:11:5

1st move = missile impact (to be calculated soon) Plane range is 8.0nm.

1st fire = missile impact to be calculated.

ATA of missile is 6.5 verse 4.0 = +2.5 before modifiers or 55% chance of a hit.

Modifiers will include +1 to defender due to hight mods, +1.5 to defender due to ECM. After modifiers the result is 0 or 30% chance of a hit. Roll is ... a hit (and kill).

 

At this point i wanted to try the dog fight rules so i moved the game forward so that the 3 remaining planes are within 5.0nm and at the same altitude and dog fighting ensures. The Mirage could choose to flee, but since its ATA of 4.5 is higher than the F-15s ATA of 4.0 he decides to take both of them on (courageous decision, minister!).

 

Attack position formula (6.3.3.3.1)

F-15A (6+4-4.5)*10% = 55% to be in an "attacking" position.

F-15B (6+4-4.5)*10% = 55%

Mirage (6+4.5-4.0)*.1= 65%

 

Die rolls are 13, 53, 14. So each aircraft is in a position to attack or fire ATA missile. Who goes first?

 

6.3.3..3.2 says the HIGHEST successful position roll goes first (huh?). In this case F-15B has the highest roll so he gets to go first, then the Mirage and finally F-15A. This doesnt make sense to me. The attack position formula and die roll simulates how quickly/easily a plane can manouver into a firing position. In my mind F-15B only just scraped in his roll (needed less than 55 and rolled a 53) so i though he would be the last to fire. The mirage rolled way under what he needed so i thought he would fire first. Anyone want to weigh in on this one?

 

Time out. More to follow ...

The result of the detection rolls had each F-15 detecting one Mirage each, and each F-15 detecting a different Mirage. I wonder if the F-15s know they have detected 1 each of the 2 planes? Or if they think they have picked up the same target? (anybody?).

 

Nice writeup

 

I would say the bearing separation on the Mirages as seen from the F-15s will dictate if they realize there are two targets. If the bearing to both Mirages is within 1-2 degrees then I doubt the radar scope is going to give any indication of multiple contacts. What I don't know is if ESM/RWR would give any indication of two Mirage radars seeking out targets rather than just one (my hunch is RWR is your better tool in this case for noting two contacts vice one if they are in close formation).

6.3.3..3.2 says the HIGHEST successful position roll goes first (huh?). In this case F-15B has the highest roll so he gets to go first, then the Mirage and finally F-15A. This doesnt make sense to me. The attack position formula and die roll simulates how quickly/easily a plane can manouver into a firing position. In my mind F-15B only just scraped in his roll (needed less than 55 and rolled a 53) so i though he would be the last to fire. The mirage rolled way under what he needed so i thought he would fire first. Anyone want to weigh in on this one?

 

I've thought about this some more and maybe i can see some reasoning in it. HIGHEST roll goes first would mean the plane with the higher chance of success can afford to roll a number higher than the lower % craft and still be successful. So i feel better about this rule now (somewhere out there i'm sure L Bond is feeling better knowing i agree with him!)

 

The Mirages dropping altitude to very low might have worked if the F-15s didnt have LD/SD radars which can see up to two altitudes lower. I think many aircraft radars can only "look up" but i will look into this more. So by being low or lower the Mirages had hte right tactics.

 

Results of dogfight may be up in a day or two.

The highest rolling F-15 gets to fire on the Mirage first. A sidewinder is fired. 6.5ata less 1.5 for 3rd generation counter measures, no decoys are carried. This leaves an attack of 4.0 or 70% to hit (yikes!). The Mirage paying the price for not carrying decoys. The to kill die roll is .... 37 - he shots he scores!!! The Mirage is shot down and its game over.

 

To continue with the example to see how the Mirage would have faired.

Mirage fires a Magic2 air to air missile. It is 3rd generation all-aspect capable. The ata of 5.5 is recued by 1.5 for the F-15s 3rd generation ECM and another 1.5 for decoys, leaving 2.5 or 55% of downing the F-15. The die roll is .... 57, a miss! Without the decoys on the F-15 (which the MIrage lacked) this would have been a kill for the Mirage.

 

The second F-15 still has the opportunity to fire assuming all misses up to now and the chance to hit is the same as the first F-15, 70%. Die roll is ... 8.

 

Two things stood out during the dogfight portion of this AAR.

1) having ECM and decoys can significantly improve an aircrafts survivability.

2) the ata atk # of an ATA missile is important. This probably isn't news to anybody. As is the generational battle between ECM and missiles.

 

In this example the Mirage had the higher ata of the fighters (4.5 verse 4.0) which gave it the best chance of being in a position to shoot and also the best chance of firing first. However when missiles were fired, the F-15 had the better chance of hitting (due to better missile technology and better defensive countermeasures).

Depends on the country and variant of Mirage 2000, but they have always been fitted with decoys.

The highest rolling F-15 gets to fire on the Mirage first. A sidewinder is fired. 6.5ata less 1.5 for 3rd generation counter measures, no decoys are carried. This leaves an attack of 4.0 or 70% to hit (yikes!) ...

 

Mirage fires a Magic2 air to air missile. It is 3rd generation all-aspect capable. The ata of 5.5 is recued by 1.5 for the F-15s 3rd generation ECM ...

 

Should the ECM modifier be applied against passive heat seeking missiles like Sidewinder and Magic 2? (Or does the modifier assume and include something like an IR jammer or missile approach warner into the equation?)

KC,

 

Are you using 4.1 or the new Trilogy Air Rules?

4.1.

KC,

 

Looking at this through the 4.1 rules, provided that they are each detected, within range and within optimal missiles parameters (same level), the F-15C firing an AIM-9M (Gen3, ATA=6.5) sidewinder at a Mirage 2000 (Man Rating 4.5, 3rd Gen D) would calculate: Sidewinder ATA 6.5 - 6 (4.5 Mirage Man Rating + 1.5 3rd Gen Decoys) = +0.5 or Air to Air Combat pH = 35%.

 

Conversely, the Mirage 2000 firing a Magic2 (Gen3, ATA=5.5) at an F-15C (Man Rating 4, 3rd Gen J&D) would calculate: Magic2 ATA 5.5 - 7 (Man Rating 4 + 1.5 3rd Gen Jammers and +1.5 3rd Gen Decoys) = -1.5 or Air to Air Combat pH = 15%.

 

It appears that the Sidewinder AIM-9M's superior ATA and the F-15C's extra ECM prove decisive.

 

It's been a while for me so if anyone notices any errors, please chime in.

 

Thanks,

 

Pete

I'd have to check the H4.1 rules, but the F-15C jammer is a radar jammer. Against the IRH Magic 2, it can only use decoys (flares).

 

If it was a say a Super 530D (SARH), the F-15 could use the radar jammer and decoys (chaff). And most Mirage 2000 are fitted with a radar jammer.

 

Some of the entries have fitted with IR jammer (2nd Gen vs IRH), this would be the ALQ-144 and the like.

I'd have to check the H4.1 rules, but the F-15C jammer is a radar jammer. Against the IRH Magic 2, it can only use decoys (flares).

 

If it was a say a Super 530D (SARH), the F-15 could use the radar jammer and decoys (chaff). And most Mirage 2000 are fitted with a radar jammer.

 

Some of the entries have fitted with IR jammer (2nd Gen vs IRH), this would be the ALQ-144 and the like.

 

Hi Peter,

 

I agree that decoys primarily should effect infrared guided missiles while jammers should effect radar guided. I was not able to locate where in the 4.1 rules that states when one, the other or both countermeasures should be calculated. I was probably staring right at it, but could not see it. Any rule reference?

 

Thanks as always,

 

Pete

I'd have to check the H4.1 rules, but the F-15C jammer is a radar jammer. Against the IRH Magic 2, it can only use decoys (flares). If it was a say a Super 530D (SARH), the F-15 could use the radar jammer and decoys (chaff). And most Mirage 2000 are fitted with a radar jammer. Some of the entries have fitted with IR jammer (2nd Gen vs IRH), this would be the ALQ-144 and the like.

 

Yes, this is what I was getting at with my question about the ECM modifiers being applied against IR guided AAMs.

Conversely, the Mirage 2000 firing a Magic2 (Gen3, ATA=5.5) at an F-15C (Man Rating 4, 3rd Gen J&D) would calculate: Magic2 ATA 5.5 - 7 (Man Rating 4 + 1.5 3rd Gen Jammers and +1.5 3rd Gen Decoys) = -1.5 or Air to Air Combat pH = 15%.

 

Well an "ad-hoc council of war" (me and Brad on IRC and PG) has agreed that the F-15C, being fired at by an IRH missile, should not benefit from the additional 1.5 for its 3rd Generation Jammers. The differential should be 0.0 or 30%. A much fairer fight now, but who likes fair fights.

Hi Peter,

 

I agree that decoys primarily should effect infrared guided missiles while jammers should effect radar guided. I was not able to locate where in the 4.1 rules that states when one, the other or both countermeasures should be calculated. I was probably staring right at it, but could not see it. Any rule reference?

 

Thanks as always,

 

Pete

 

 

Kinda 6.7.1, but its not real clear.

 

6.2.4 (yeah I know!), page 6-4, paragraph before Example 1.

 

SITREP 30 clarifies this with 'Q&A: EW Rules Clarification in H4'.

hehe, yeah 6.2.4, despite the heading of Resolving Antiship Missile Attacks, best answers the question: "For IR homing weapons, use the decoy column only." I think that it should be more of a Harpoon General Combat type of statement, there it is.

 

6.7.1 ...yeah...sort of.

 

I'll dig out Sitrep 30 from my stash.

 

As always,

 

Thank you