June 9, 200917 yr Author Silent Hunter Clearly the chance to get into firing position was the big issue (90% v 50%) for this engagement. But when the A7's fired they had a higher chance to hit but ... of the 3xA7s in position to fire (good rolling errrrr, flying) 1 rolled a 90 and missed (unlucky) and another was shot down before he could fire (arguably, unlucky), and the 3rd A7 did hit (expected). So of the 3 position to fires they only "converted" 1. And Game Over. I liked the write up. Good to see someone else using the "old" rules. PG_H4 makes a good point i would have missed. If hte A7's drop their bombs they might survive but the game is lost since the bombing aspect cant take place. CV32 ... i've missed something ... did you guys go head-to-head recently???
June 10, 200917 yr Author Flight Leader 4 Migs bounce your 2 Phantoms, what do you do? (anyone else remember the game “Flight Leader” from 1986 which had this quote on the box cover?). 2 x F-4F Phantom II’s go up against 4 x Mig 21F Fishbed J’s. Intro: After looking at the Radar capabilities here, its hard to believe the Migs could surprise the F-4’s. F-4 radar detects small targets out to 26.0nm while the Fishbeds only detect out to 7.0nm. But, I think these models clashed over Vietnam, so maybe the Fishbeds were talked onto the F-4’s from ground control. To gain position F-4 (2+3.5-3.5*.1)=20% Mig 21 (4+3.5-3.5*.1)=40% To score a hit F-4 3.5-3.5 = 0 = 30% Mig 21 2.5-3.5 +1 (decoys) = 0 = 30% So it looks like the Migs are going to be in a better position to get a shot off, and both aircraft have the same chance to hit. I decided to add pilot experience to the contest. USA is experienced and Nth Vietnam are novice. The effect is the F-4 gains 20% to gain position (now matches Migs 40%). The situation then is both aircraft have 40% chance to gain position and then 30% chance to hit. As we’ve seen from other dog fight AAR’s, firing first and hitting can be a great advantage because the downed plane doesn’t get the right of reply! In this case, despite the evenness on an aircraft by aircraft basis, its 4 Migs against 2 Phantoms. The Action F-4A matches up with Mig3 (random roll) F-4B matches up with Mig2 (random roll). Mig1 = F-4A (random roll) Mig2 = F-4A (random roll) Mig3 = F-4B (player decided) Mig4 = F-4B (player decided) Round 1 Die rolls to gain position 23 F-4A gains position 60 F-4B no position 96 Mig1 no position 41 Mig2 no position 74 Mig3 no position 38 Mig4 gains position Mig 4 fires first, then F-4A. Mig4 fires 2 AtA missiles, each with 30% chance of hitting (64, 79) but both miss. F-4A fires 2 AtA missles each with 30% chance of hitting (26, 68) and kills Mig3. F-4A randomly matches up with Mig2 (random roll) in the next round when trying to gain position. Round 2 F-4A = 18 gains position on Mig2 F-4B = 21 and gains position on Mig2 also (and fires before F-4A) Mig1 = 75 for no position Mig2 = 61 for no position Mig3 = downed last round Mig4 = 96 for no position. F-4B fires 2 missiles (39, 81) misses with both. F-4A fires its last 2 missiles at the same Mig and (93 and 99) it misses both also. F-4A is down to using guns next round. 69 F-4A no position 45 F-4B no position 16 Mig1 gains position on F-4A 100 Mig2 no position 96 Mig4 no position Mig1 fires 2 missiles (23, 57) and kills F-4A. 3rd round F-4A = downed in round 2 F-4B = 40 and gains position on Mig2 Mig1 = 100 for no position Mig2 = 41 for no position Mig3 = downed in round 1 mig4 = 77 for no position. F-4B is the only fighter to get into position and fires a single missile, saving one for next round. It (98) misses! 4th Round F-4A = downed in round 2 F-4B = 52 for no position Mig1 = 88 for no position Mig2 = 98for no position Mig3 = downed in round 1 Mig4 = 68 for no position. No aircraft get position 5th Round F-4A = downed in round 2 F-4B = 26 and gains position and will fire first on Mig2 Mig1 = 79 for no position Mig2 = 66 no position Mig3 = downed in round 1 Mig4 = 02 gains position on the last F-4 but will fire second. F-4 fires its last missile and (08) hits. Mig4 fires (59) and misses. So we are left with a one F-4B going up against Migs 3 and 4. 6th Round F-4B 8 gains position on Mig3 Mig3 58 no position Mig4 59 no position. F-4B has no missiles left so attacks with guns. Do I use the F-4 Gun atk: 4 for this? For example 4 - 3.5 = 0.5 = 35% of a hit? I will assume for now that is the case and (45) guns miss. Wow, 7th Round. Aircraft in a dog fight are automatically in afterburn (if they have it) due to 6.3.3.3. Without doing the math I decided all aircraft had had enough and returned home. End result was 1 x F-4 shot down, and 2 x Migs. Hard to determine a winner here. More Migs were shot down (2-1), but 50% of both sides forces were lost. I’m feeling like the draw is a minor victory for the F-4s, since at the start I thought the game was even except for the 4-2 Mig advantage. So I expected the Migs to win. They didn’t, so minor win for the Phantoms.
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