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Venezuela sub scenario


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I'm about to play my first scenario this weekend using thePlotter - Canadian ASW frigates vs Soviet SS in the North Sea.
How did it go. We eagerly await an AAR, however brief. ;)
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Here is the best free source, that I've found so far, of relative ocean depths in the proposed area of operations. It appears from this that aside from a small very shallow band along the coast, that most of the AO (labelled Bonaire Basin in this graphic) is between 200-1,999 meters. Therefore it would appear to me, per 3.2.1 Depths and Depth Changes, that this would provide for the use of Towed Arrays, and the appearance of one Convergence Zone of 3nm at a range of 30nm from the sonar.
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This is where solo gaming becomes a challenge, :huh: but I'll roll some dice, or select some pre-written out standing order cards to determine what depth the sub is at, along with my pre-rolled "start" bearing of the sub in relation to the FFG's position.

 

I created six pre-written standing order cards for the Amur. These addressed aggressiveness/timidity of the CO, above/below the thermocline, at/not periscope depth (if applicable), whether attack or evade upon detection.

 

I shuffled and then selected "An aggressive commander, above the thermocline, at periscope depth, and he will evade if detected unless the detecting platform is his primary target." This means that the Amur is trying to get past the screening Perry and onto the maritime inspection force - currently a Burke. :)

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USS Carr (FFG-52) is on ASW Picket duty, screening between Isla la Tortuga and the isthmus north of Cumara. USS Shoup is conducting maritime inspections just north of Isla de Magarita.

 

The Venezuelan Amur SS begins off of Cumara after transiting along the coast from its port in Puerto Cabello. Amur begins at periscope depth 25m. She has an aggressive commander, who will evade unless it is his primary target – the DDG.

 

Amur and Carr begin 48.7nm apart. Sea State 4

 

0801-0830

Amur SS 315 @ 10kts

Perry FFG 095 @ 10kts

40.7nm apart

 

0831-0900

Amur SS 000 @ 10kts, descends to Intermediate I Depth

Perry FFG 095 @ 10kts

32.7nm apart

 

0901-0930

Amur SS 030 @ 10kts

Perry FFG 095 @ 10kts

28.2nm apart

 

0931-1000

Amur SS 075 @ 10kts

Perry FFG 095 @ 10kts

28.2nm apart

 

1001-1030

Amur SS 075 @ 10kts

Perry FFG 095 @ 10kts

28nm apart

 

1031-1100

Amur SS 050 @ 10kts

Perry FFG 095 @ 10kts

27nm apart

 

1101-1130

Amur SS 050 @ 10kts

Perry FFG 095 @ 10kts

25.5nm apart

 

 

1131-1200

Amur SS 090 @ 10kts

Perry FFG 095 @ 10kts

25.6nm apart

SS is negotiating the area between Margarita and the isthmus near Cumana and the two islets in between.

 

1201-1230

Amur SS 090 @ 10kts

Perry FFG 185 @ 10kts (accelerated in order to maintain speed in light of turning more than 45 degrees.)

Burke DDG 135 @ 5kts current position 11.05.33N 63.47.41W (been patrolling, just not reported)

 

1231-1300

Amur SS 045 @ 10kts

Perry FFG 230 @ 10kts

Burke DDG 135 @ 5kts

20.2nm apart (SS and DDG)

 

1301-1330

Amur SS 045 @ 10kts

Perry FFG 275 @ 10kts

Burke DDG 135 @ 5kts

13.2nm apart (SS and DDG)

 

1331-1400

Amur SS 045 @ 10kts

Perry FFG 275 @ 10kts

Burke DDG 135 @ 5kts

9.2nm apart (SS and DDG)

 

1401-1430

Amur SS 030 @ 10kts

Perry FFG 275 @ 10kts

Burke DDG 135 @ 5kts

3.1nm apart

 

Detection pre-work up

Amur's LIRA LF-MF in Passive has a 50% Range of 3.0nm

Target Noise: x1 Quiet

Target Speed: x1 5kts

Own Speed: x.5 10kts

Sea State: x1 SS4 (ignored since own speed modifier is lower)

Cross Layer: x.5 Sub at Intermediate I 51m+

0.75nm x 0.40 = 0.3nm @ 75%

0.75nm x 1.1 = 0.8nm @ 50%

0.75nm x 1.5 = 1.1 @ 25%

 

Burke's SQS-53C @ 5kts Passive rating of 3.0nm

Target Noise x.5 VQuiet

Target Speed x2 10kts

Own Speed x1 5kts

Sea State x1 (ignored)

Cross Layer x.5

1.5nm x 0.40 = 0.6nm @ 75%

1.5nm x 1.1 = 1.7nm @ 50%

1.5nm x 1.5 = 2.3nm @ 25%

 

1431-1433

Amur SS 000 @ 10kts

Perry FFG 275 @ 10kts

Burke DDG 135 @ 5kts

2.9nm apart

 

1434-1436

Amur SS 000 @ 10kts

Perry FFG 275 @ 10kts

Burke DDG 135 @ 5kts

1.9nm apart

Burke attempts detection: 2D10 = 21 CONTACT! Bearing 205 degrees.

Burke attempts classification:

Base LF-MF vs VQuiet = 0

Target Speed (10kts) Base +5

Tac Turns in contact = Base = 0

Need <=5; 2D10 = 89 No classification

 

1437-1439

Amur SS 000 @ 10kts

Perry FFG 275 @ 10kts

Burke DDG 135 @ 5kts

1.4nm apart

Burke orders Alert5 MH-60R to launch at 1441 on most recent bearing.

Burke attempts to maintain contact (+15% per 4.4.3): 2D10 = 55 CONTACT! Bearing 224 degrees!

Attempts classification: Needs <=10; 2D10 = 19 No classification.

 

1440-1442

Amur SS 000 @ 10kts

Perry FFG 275 @ 10kts

Burke DDG 135 @ 5kts

MH-60R launches at 1441 travels at 100kts, at Low Altitude. Travel 1.0nm drops 1x DICASS (P) Set for “Below Layer”. Turns to a heading of 315 degrees and drops 1x DICASS every 0.5nm for a total of 10x DICASS Sonar Buoys.

Burke attempts to maintain contact: 2D10 = 39 Contact maintain, Bearing 253 degrees.

Burke attempts to classify contact: needs <=15; 2D10 = 22, no classification

SB #2 is at/within 1.0nm, which is within the 50% band. Attempts detection; 2D10 = 30.

SB #2 Classification attempt: 2D10 = 40 = no classification.

 

1443-1445

Amur SS 000 @ 10kts

Perry FFG 275 @ 10kts

Burke DDG 135 @ 5kts

Burke attempts to maintain contact: 2D10 = 85 CONTACT LOST!

MH-60R, drops SB#10 and then turns returning to SB#2.

SB#2 attempts to maintain contact: 2D10 = 78 CONTACT LOST!

Amur attempt detection of potential target of 1.1nm: 2D10 = 76 No contact.

 

1446.0

Amur SS 000 @ 10kts

Perry FFG 275 @ 10kts

Burke DDG 135 @ 5kts

MH-60R dips its AQS-22F Active Dipping Sonar into the Shallow Depth Band

 

1446 Detection:

Amur cannot attempt detection of potential target.

Amur's LIRA LF-MF in Passive has a 50% Range of 3.5nm (Flank Array)

Target Noise: x1 Quiet

Target Speed: x1 5kts

Own Speed: x.5 10kts

Sea State: x1 SS4 (ignored since own speed modifier is lower)

Cross Layer: x.5 Sub at Intermediate I 51m+

Engagement Turns x.5

0.44nm x 0.40 = 0.18nm @ 75%

0.44nm x 1.1 = 0.44nm @ 50%

0.44nm x 1.5 = 0.66nm @ 25%

Burke attempts to re-detect contact: 2D10 = 03 CONTACT Bearing 290 degrees.

Burke attempts to classify 2D10 = 69 no classification.

 

1446.5

Amur SS 000 @ 10kts

Perry FFG 275 @ 10kts

Burke DDG 135 @ 5kts

MH-60R continues to dip the active sonar from Shallow to Intermediate Depth.

 

1447.0

Amur SS 000 @ 10kts

Perry FFG 275 @ 10kts

Burke DDG 135 @ 5kts

MH-60R – Hovering

 

1447 Detection

AQS-22F Active Rating 4

Speed (0) x1

Sea State (4) x1

Anechoic Coating x.5

Engagement Turn x.5

0.4nm @ 25%

1.1nm @ 50%

1.5nm @ 75%

Range 2D10 = 26 Contact! Bearing 350 degrees, Range 0.5nm

 

Amur cannot detect due to Passive Sonar Engagement Turn Factor rendering a too short range.

 

What now El Captain?

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I intend to back up to 1434-1436, have the sub at 5kts, and back up at at periscope depth to see if it has a better chance at passive detection, or even a visual detection in the next couple of turns. We'll see how that works out.

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