Tony, I am guessing that sonar logging doesn't help me for a past event? And I don't expect to ever see this again, so it doesn't help me for the future?

 

True, except if you manage to get a saved game before the ship gets mysteriously sunk. Then you can turn on more detailed than default logging when you load the save and accumulate data.

Brad and Warhorse, you are probably right.

 

As you know, a Victor 2 carries 4 x Type 65s, and AI units launch whatever bears when it bears, so those torpedos almost certainly got launched early. Here's the catch:

 

Using approximate figures (of course this can be improved):

Type 65 travels at about 45 kn. It had to travel through 15 nm of OHP sonar. OHP is creeping at the time because detected torps are headed for the 22/2. Let's suppose the dozen or sonobuoys in play at the time are in the wrong place. OHP detection is 50% each 30s. Torp travel time through sonar zone is 1/3 h = 20 min = 40 tries

Failing 40 consecutive 50% tries = 2 ^ -40 = 1024 ^ -4 = about a trillion to one against !!!

 

Actually seeing that in a lifetime?

Houston, I think we have a problem.

 

We are assuming nukes were not used.

 

Is there a significant flaw in my calculation?

Is there anyone here who can say, yeah, happens to me all the time. 1,000,000,000,000 to 1 against !!!

 

One more time:

 

1,000,000,000,000 to 1 against !!!

 

 

Hmmm ... I though sonar was integrated on a 5 minute cycle vice 30 seconds? Also, the 15 nm sonar circle will be for the towed array on the OHP. However, it is most likely hanging underneath the layer, while the torp should be running above the layer, which IIRC means you've only got half the range in that case. *If* I've got all of that right, then you don't have 40 tries for a trillion to one against, you have *two* tries, for a rather more reasonable one in four chance of not hearing the torp ... Tony, what do you say?

Hmmm ... I though sonar was integrated on a 5 minute cycle vice 30 seconds? Also, the 15 nm sonar circle will be for the towed array on the OHP. However, it is most likely hanging underneath the layer, while the torp should be running above the layer, which IIRC means you've only got half the range in that case. *If* I've got all of that right, then you don't have 40 tries for a trillion to one against, you have *two* tries, for a rather more reasonable one in four chance of not hearing the torp ... Tony, what do you say?

 

Please tell me you're kidding. A good ASW ship operating under the best of conditions has AT BEST a 75% chance of detecting a torpedo coming in at 45 kn over 10 min?

A Romulan warbird.

 

 

A Warbird could never catch it, must have been a War Eagle.

 

I'm guessing at least a few Harpoon players recognize where that comes from:-)

A Romulan warbird.

 

 

A Warbird could never catch it, must have been a War Eagle.

 

I'm guessing at least a few Harpoon players recognize where that comes from:-)

 

Well, if you're talking about the SFB Warbird, it's sublight, but that still is much faster than any atmospheric craft, plus the plasma torp travels at Warp 3+.

 

The "modern" Warbird is warp-capable.

Brad, I interpret your humour as that it wouldn't work anyway?

 

I was amused at the fact that TonyE (quite rightly) keeps telling people to use the logging tools available to them to clarify and hopefully explain the "anomalies" they think they are seeing, but nobody seems to want to take that good advice.

 

(It sucks to have to explain humour. )

Please tell me you're kidding. A good ASW ship operating under the best of conditions has AT BEST a 75% chance of detecting a torpedo coming in at 45 kn over 10 min?

 

He ain't kidding. Sonar checks every 5 minutes. Kinda throws the statistics outta whack, huh?

 

Moral of this story: Torpedoes are really mean.

Hmmm ... I though sonar was integrated on a 5 minute cycle vice 30 seconds? Also, the 15 nm sonar circle will be for the towed array on the OHP. However, it is most likely hanging underneath the layer, while the torp should be running above the layer, which IIRC means you've only got half the range in that case.

 

Brad covered the 5 minute cycle (true) and also true on the layer (50% reduction in range right there).

Hmmm ... I though sonar was integrated on a 5 minute cycle vice 30 seconds? Also, the 15 nm sonar circle will be for the towed array on the OHP. However, it is most likely hanging underneath the layer, while the torp should be running above the layer, which IIRC means you've only got half the range in that case.

 

Brad covered the 5 minute cycle (true) and also true on the layer (50% reduction in range right there).

 

So, for the OP: If the last time you saw the torp was less than 10 minutes before your OHP blew up and sank, then it only takes 1 missed detection in that time, so, very possible. If it was less than 5 minutes, you don't have to miss *anything*.

 

Turning on sonar logging can be very instructive. Turn it on and go play Gatekeeper.

 

BTW, Tony, does the Launcher still work fine with the HUCE?

Turning on sonar logging can be very instructive. Turn it on and go play Gatekeeper.

 

BTW, Tony, does the Launcher still work fine with the HUCE?

LOL, Gatekeeper and sonar logging, that'll fill up the old hard drive Truly it would be educational though.

 

Yep, launcher still works fine with HUCE.

Turning on sonar logging can be very instructive. Turn it on and go play Gatekeeper.

 

BTW, Tony, does the Launcher still work fine with the HUCE?

LOL, Gatekeeper and sonar logging, that'll fill up the old hard drive Truly it would be educational though.

 

Yep, launcher still works fine with HUCE.

 

Hehe, my machine has a pair of 640 GB drives, so while it creates a huge file, I can turn around and use grep to find any events I want, since I'm basically playing on a BSD machine with a custom GUI.

 

LOL, and I wouldn't play the *whole* scenario with logging on. Just a few minutes while I'm working some contacts, till I get another contact or two. I used this to figure out how badly the game was 'cheating' on multi-sub group detection.

1,000,000,000,000 to 1 against !!!

 

Still, as Jim Carrey said to Lauren Holly's turn-down in "Dumb and Dumber",

"but there's STILL a chance!"

Please tell me you're kidding. A good ASW ship operating under the best of conditions has AT BEST a 75% chance of detecting a torpedo coming in at 45 kn over 10 min?

 

Look at it from the flip side, though --- suppose you have a sub that has only the torps with 13 nm range. That means an effective range of 10 nm or less, to allow for the target fleeing. If your sub and an OHP are heading directly toward each other at creep, you will have to pass through at least 5 nm of his sonar range. 5 nm @ 10 kts = 30 minutes. If the sonar was integrated every 30 seconds at 50% detection chance, what are the odds that your sub WON'T be getting a surprise visit from an SH-70?

Hmmm ... I though sonar was integrated on a 5 minute cycle vice 30 seconds? Also, the 15 nm sonar circle will be for the towed array on the OHP. However, it is most likely hanging underneath the layer, while the torp should be running above the layer, which IIRC means you've only got half the range in that case.

 

Brad covered the 5 minute cycle (true) and also true on the layer (50% reduction in range right there).

 

Thanks, Tony and Brad.

Please tell me you're kidding. A good ASW ship operating under the best of conditions has AT BEST a 75% chance of detecting a torpedo coming in at 45 kn over 10 min?

 

Look at it from the flip side, though --- suppose you have a sub that has only the torps with 13 nm range. That means an effective range of 10 nm or less, to allow for the target fleeing. If your sub and an OHP are heading directly toward each other at creep, you will have to pass through at least 5 nm of his sonar range. 5 nm @ 10 kts = 30 minutes. If the sonar was integrated every 30 seconds at 50% detection chance, what are the odds that your sub WON'T be getting a surprise visit from an SH-70?

 

2 ^ -60 = 1024 ^ -6 ~ 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 to 1 against. That's a Quintillion.

 

But I would park my sub and kiss his passive sonar good-bye.