View File

Ukrainian Falcons, August 2024. Hypothetical Scenario.

---

Ukrainian Falcons, August 2024. Hypothetical Scenario.

A Harpoon Commander's Edition scenario for EC2003 Battle for the Mediterranean Battleset and the HCDB2-170909 (or later) 1980-2025 era Platform Database. This scenario is designed with Advanced Scenario Editor Build 2017.013 and to be run with HCE 2015.008+ or later.

This scenario is designed to be played from the Blue/Ukrainian/NATO side or from the Red/Russian. You should play a few times first the Blue side to avoid spoilers, and only later play the Red side.

Image: A Ukrainian Tupolev Tu-22M3 (NATO-Codename: Backfire-C) bomber is dismantled through assistance provided by the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program implemented by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, November 12, 2002. Depend on Russia and its consecutive nuclear disarmament was probably the greatest error of the Ukrainian history. Photo by an US serviceperson on duty, and in consequence in public domain, took from Wikipedia Commons.

From the eventful year of 2014 (Mainly from the Russian invasion of Crimea) the world was beginning clearly the so-called Second Cold War, the President of Russia Vladimir Putin (ex-KGB lieutenant colonel) was showing clearly his plan to recover the Russian Empire including previous Soviet territories for reinstitute the greatness of "his" Russia, and to guarantee his passage on the History as saviour of the Rodina.

After the massive Russian build-up of forces from late 2021 in Russia and Belarus near the Ukrainian border, NATO forces were forced to an increased and constant deployment near Ukraine and the Eastern Mediterranean, to deterrent Putin's ambition.

The probably original plan was to avoid an intervention by NATO ground forces but preventing the Russian main forces to enter Ukrainian territory, and to get this target to establish an air and sea exclusion zone around and over Ukraine.

But at last, on February 24, 2022, Russian forces invaded Ukraine against most forecast, sinking the world in a new state of international relations, as consequence of a long and failed campaign of unexpected outcomes, extended more than two years at this moment.

After that time, the Ukrainian Air Force is almost depleted of effective aircrafts, and at last at late July 2024, and after a long preparation, the first F-16AM/BM begin to arrive in Ukraine. They come from many NATO countries, mostly Denmark, Netherlands, Norway and Denmark, and were update in the early 2000, expected to receive between 79 and 129. But they came apparently supplied with older models of AIM-9M Sidewinder and AIM-120B AMRAAM, not with state of art AIM-9X-2 or AIM-120C-7.

Many speculated at the Russian invasion start about NATO establishing an air exclusion zone over Ukraine, but that time was over after the first days of war.

This scenario is very simple and mainly abstract and hypothetical, and not based in the real (secret!) placement of the Ukrainian F-16AM.

I started it as a simple test of capabilities developed in only two or three hours (After some days of thinking on it), and grow a little, and decided to publish it as tribute to the Ukrainian resistance against the invader.

Enrique Mas, August 7, 2024.

---

• Submitter
  broncepulido
• Submitted
  08/07/2024
• Category
  MEDC

 

Notes on some platforms:

- Are employed ex Dutch F-16AM in representation of all the aircrafts transferred from other NATO countries (just today I read few minutes ago in the Ukrainian Air Force entry on Wikipedia, are ten F-16 now delivered). Are armed only with the old AIM-9M and AIM-120B, as apparently are the first ones delivered.

- The SA-5c SAM (Very few produced) deployed in "offensive mode" represents old SA-5b updated by the Ukrainians.

- From mid-2022 Russian Su-35S and Su-30SM are carrying as routine one AS-17/Kh-31PD anti-radar missile added to its usual anti-air loadouts, to attack opportunity targets of Air Defense systems (apparently less in use in mid-2024, perhaps the war stock has been depleted)

- From mid-2022? not only MIG-31, but also Su-35S are equipped with the extra long range AA-13/R-37M active radar homing air-to-air missile, apparently achieving some kills at its maximum range of 214 nautical miles. AA-13/R-37M is also carried by the Su-30SM from probably early 2024.

Some sources:

- Contemporary events reports.

- Many daily works (and Helion Books) of Tom Cooper, on FaceBook and other media:

https://www.facebook.com/keksifarm.hayday

We're making good progress here, but I have relied a bit on the fixed SAM, trying not to get the shiny new planes scratched.

(AAR)

After Action Report

** SPOILER ALERT**

Thank Enrique, another nice scenario and interesting.

I decided that a plan was to put 2 AC patrol units of F-16 around the edge of the northern area of the large SAM coverage of my enemy and a couple of AEW planes well out of reach but hopefully giving good coverage of the 'danger zone'.

A number of attack attempts came out for me, and most were successfully dealt with with my SAM units, but (in the attached detail report) it is clear that my teams fired a large number of SAM to little effect, I better write off to my friends and ask for more.

Here's a summary, the blow by blow action is noted in the attached zipped up report text for anyone interested in the stats.

[Initial Start]
Actual Date=8/08/2024 14:33:38
(Report Generator=AARdata.dll v 1.5.0.6, downloaded from Harpgamer Forum)
Battleset=HDSJ
Scenario=C:\Matrix Games\HCDev\addons\medc\hcdb2\2024-08 F-16AM UKR.sco
Player=Blue

[Session Summary]
Session Game Start=8 Aug 2024, 05:00:00
GameTimeDuration ThisSession=4Hrs50 Mins
TotalGameTimeDuration=4Hrs50Mins
GameTimeToGO=43 Hrs: 9 Mins
Session End RealTime=8/08/2024 15:43:12
RealTimeDuration ThisSession=1:09:34
==== =====
Session Game Start=8 Aug 2024, 09:50:55
GameTimeDuration ThisSession=3Hrs37 Mins
TotalGameTimeDuration=8Hrs28Mins
GameTimeToGO=39 Hrs: 31 Mins
Session End RealTime=8/08/2024 17:20:44
RealTimeDuration ThisSession=0:33:56
==== =====

[Victory Summary]
Time=08 Aug 2024, 08:48:00  The BLUE side has met their minimum victory conditions
Time=08 Aug 2024, 10:48:01  The BLUE side has met their total victory conditions

[Kill Detail Red Side ]
Su-30SM Flanker G 13/Plane=4
MiG-31BM Foxhound 15/Plane=4
A-50U Mainstay/Plane=1
Su-35S Flanker E/Plane=4

[Kill Summary Red Side ]
Planes:=13

[Damage List Red]
ZYa: 00 Taganrog damage=888/5000
ZZa: 00 Belbek AB, occupied Ukraine damage=1851/9000

[Kill Detail Blue Side ]
F-16AM Falcon 16/Plane=3

[Kill Summary Blue Side ]
Planes:=3

 

2024-f-16-Ukraine.zip

Great report, thanks for sharing!

As I did say yesterday, was a very improvised (in two hours!) test scenario, it was growing for itself, and only adding very few details was converted in a complete little scenario, but very changelling and funny.

Also, I'm very surprised as the outcomes are mostly coincidental with the real life situation, as great need of SAMs replishement, as the SAMs (added almost casually) master the battlefield and conditioned the aircraft courses, and as surprisingly the very shorter ranged AIM-120B (40 nm range in my modified DB) can be employed by the F-16AM undetected against fighters carrying R-37M (214 nm range in my modified DB), finishing almost in a draw most times in this scenario (play tested by me some 20 times, both sides).

In fact, a very satisfying and unexpected mini-scenario outcomes.

It is comforting to see folks still producing scenarios and folks still playing them.

In related news, it does look like F-16s in Ukrainian will be receiving both AIM-9X and AIM-120C8.