November 21, 201510 yr In short of the Russian sources above cited, and also The Aviationist and Offiziere.ch, Russian original forces (circa 30 September 2015) in Latakia/Hmejmim/Bassel Al-Assad International Airport: 4xSu-30SM 6xSu-34 8xSu-24M 4xSu-24M2 10xSu-25SM 2xSu-25UM 1xIl-20M 12xMi-24P 5xMi-8ATMSh 4xKa-27PL ?xOrlan-10 UAV ?xPchela-1T ?xGranat-3 UAV Russian forces in my initial Latakia Bastion 2015 scenario: 12xSu-27SM3 12xSu-30SM 12xSu-34 12xSu-24M2 12xSu-25SM 1xIl-20M 12xMi-24P 5xMi-8ATMSh 4xKa-27PL 12xHermes 450 represents Orlan-10 UAV 12xRQ-2A Pioneer represents Pchela-1T and Granat-3 UAV Russian later forces (circa 20 November 2015): 4 or 6xSu-27SM3 (Probably these were added circa 17 November 2015, and not the other 4xSu-24 more mentioned later) 4xSu-30SM 12xSu-34 (of them 8 were added circa 17 November 2015) Some 30xSu-24M/M2 (Of them 4 were added circa 17 November 2015) 10xSu-25SM 2xSu-25UM 1xIl-20M 1xIl-22M? 12xMi-24P 4xMi-8ATMSh 4xKa-27PL ?xOrlan-10 UAV ?xPchela-1T ?xGranat-3 UAV Forces operating from mainland Russia in the 17 November 2015 attack: 5xTu-160 6xTu-95MS 14xTu-22M3 8xSu-34 (these planes were probably transferred to Latakia the same day, as mentioned above) 6xSu-27SM3(these planes were probably transferred to Latakia the same day, as mentioned above) In November 20, 2015, Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation General of the Army Sergey Shoigu reported that Aviation Group in Latakia has increased twice and has now 69 planes. Also, some days early were rumours of S-400 or at least his radars deployed in Latakia.
November 23, 201510 yr Author Some Mi-24 and Mi-8 have forward deployed to airfields deeper in Syria's interior, such as Tiyas and Shayrat. Re bomber strikes, here's an infographic from the Aviationist:
November 26, 201510 yr Author Been so many developments on this front that a guy would have to post updates every few minutes. Suffice to say, things have been "interesting". S-400 in Syria! I am doubtful (hopeful?) that we will see a Grave Stone radar in full operation, but the SIGINT would be glorious.
December 8, 201510 yr New attack with Tu-22M3 and Kalibr land-attack cruises missiles to targets in Syria 8 December 2015. Something of ridiculous: - The Tu-22M3 based in Mozdok, Northern Ossetia (a reactivated Long Range Aviation base) are keeping in attacks with dumb iron bombs. Their air-to-surface missiles are probably too old (their rocket engines) to be used, and they are uncapable of use more modern smart bombs (and probably in few weeks Russia will exhaust his stocks of smart bombs and will quit Syria). - The Kilo-class Project 06363 Rostov-on-Don (one of the three only active submarines in service in the Black Sea fleet) launched her Kalibr missiles from surface, perhaps incapable to fire them submerged. http://theaviationist.com/2015/12/08/kalibr-from-subs-against-syria/ http://russianships.info/eng/today/(see Black Sea Fleet)
December 9, 201510 yr Author The Kilo-class Project 06363 Rostov-on-Don (one of the three only active submarines in service in the Black Sea fleet) launched her Kalibr missiles from surface, perhaps incapable to fire them submerged. The video certainly shows the Rostov-on-Don on the surface initially, but then from a distance it is difficult to tell. But I think you can see the shadow of upper hull and sail through the smoke. Edit: After watching it several times, I am not so sure. The missiles are most definitely emerging from submerged torpedo tubes (of course) - the third launch is clearest - and you can see the splash of the protective capsule falling into the sea almost immediately after booster ignition. The missiles appear to have varied launch points so it appears that she is at least underway during the launch.
December 9, 201510 yr Author New attack with Tu-22M3 and Kalibr land-attack cruises missiles to targets in Syria 8 December 2015. Something of ridiculous: - The Tu-22M3 based in Mozdok, Northern Ossetia (a reactivated Long Range Aviation base) are keeping in attacks with dumb iron bombs. Their air-to-surface missiles are probably too old (their rocket engines) to be used, and they are uncapable of use more modern smart bombs (and probably in few weeks Russia will exhaust his stocks of smart bombs and will quit Syria). The accuracy of those OFAB-250-270 fragmentation bombs certainly leaves something to be desired. I am a little surprised that the Russians continue to put up videos that show their inaccuracy so blatantly.
December 15, 201510 yr The USSR used the Tu-22M in precisely the same role in Afghanistan with loads of iron bombs.
January 12, 201610 yr Author Russia operates 'Mainstay' AEW&Cs over Syria (Jane's) This is a new and interesting development.
February 1, 201610 yr Probably up to 6xSu-35S deployed in Latakia from late January 2016 (reported bort numbers 01 and 02): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcRG7MFslas&index=1&list=LLY2OGGi7xhwHQ2CmNo9O-Pg
February 1, 201610 yr Author Probably up to 6xSu-35S deployed in Latakia from late January 2016 (reported bort numbers 01 and 02): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcRG7MFslas&index=1&list=LLY2OGGi7xhwHQ2CmNo9O-Pg Heard this bit of news over the weekend. I think it is fairly obviously a marketing mission but it will be interesting to see what armament they deploy with. Russian supermaneuverable Su-35 Flankers have started flying over Syria
February 9, 201610 yr Author Looks like the Su-35S are operating with pairs of R-77 (AA-12 Adder), R-27T (AA-10 Alamo B ) and R-73 (AA-11 Archer). Very interesting development re R-77.
February 9, 201610 yr Author Russian deployment of new Pantsyr to Syria confirmed (Jane's) With all of this fancy new air defence equipment being deployed, there is opportunity for great MASINT in Syria. Has anyone seen any credible information about whether the emitters are active, if only partially? Links?
February 12, 201610 yr Author Russian bomber shown carrying anti-shipping missile in Syria (Jane's) I am getting the impression that there are Turkish naval vessels in the Eastern Med that are being sent a message.
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