Here is a near future scenario I'd like feedback on.

Sometime in the next five years, the Cuban leader, another Castro is assassinated. His successor is not up to handling the crisis and Cuba erupts into civil war, the factions being those who support the old regime and those who want to see a complete change of government, restored relations with the U.S., etc.

Within six months, the U.S. decides to openly support the rebels. It sends supplies, but not actual troops. It does, however, cheerfully sink most of the Cuban navy. Just as a precaution.

Allies of the Cuban regime attempt to support it, but the U.S. creates a blockade. Not as extreme, perhaps, as the one created for the missile crisis, but the U.S. is not letting any ship or plane in that it thinks might have supplies for the Cuban military. A small naval war erupts as attempts are made to run or even destroy the blockade.

1. Who does this? My gut feeling is Russia, but another possibility might be an alliance of Brazil, Argentina, and Venezuela, partly as a direct challenge to U.S. hegemony over Latin America, a way of saying "You will always have influence, U.S., but now there are TWO great powers in the West."

2. Long range results? I'm guessing Cuba eventually becomes a U.S. puppet, but would the U.S. extend the war beyond the Caribbean, perhaps deciding to punish Russia and/or Brazil-Argentina-Venezuela by crippling their sea lanes? (No invasion, just the economic warfare of sinking some ships, as a way to sting these countries for having been "naughty.") Naturally, the navies of these countries would try to stop this.

3. How does this change if both Russia AND the BAV alliance are working together?

4. Europe probably just stays neutral. Or do they?

5. What else might happen?

6. How plausible is all this?

What are your thoughts, observations, etc.? Thanks!

Mark,

 

interesting storyline. Ideas enough for a whole battleset.

 

Regarding Russia and Europe: I don´t think that they would join any hot war.

1.- Argentina is in a great economical and political crisis, Presidenta Kischner is each time more leftist and populist,and closer to Cuba and the Chavez Venezuela, but the Argentine Armed Forces are also in great poor state, almost dismantelated (jet trainers replacing Mirage derivatives, and so on), I doubt Argentina can send more than two ships to support Cuba.

Brazil is in great economical and military expansion, but I doubt very much any future Brazil government could support Cuba (the current and previous presidents are very moderate leftist,and don't support the violent external politicies of Cuba and Chavez). But as not realistic political point but insteresting for Harpoon, perhaps you can send some future Brazilian submarines (SS and ever SSN) to support Cuba (perhaps you can use Barracudas and Scorpenes or Spanish S-80):

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/Brazil-France-in-Deal-for-SSKs-SSN-05217/

About Venezuela, the probably successor after the inminent dead by cancer of Chavez is Maduro, but Maduro is a very irrational man, follower of Santi Say Baba, anything can happen if Maduro is president of Venezuela !!!!

2.- I doubt very much about long range results.

3.- Perhaps you can make a scenario with a few Russian units bottled in the Caribbean, as in http://harpgamer.com/harpforum/index.php?/files/file/685-red-spanish-main-juny-1986/

4.- Europe very probably neutral.

5.- Anything, as in the real world!!! They are some interets and inflitrations of Iran and Hezbollah in the zone, perhaps it can add some other hazards to the game:

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/08/05/2930050/irans-influence-in-venezuela-washington.html

http://interamericansecuritywatch.com/the-iran-venezuela-connection-gateway-to-hezbollah-in-our-front-yard/

6.- No very plausible, I think the zone is going to military stabilization, but if Maduro replaces Chavez and is President of Venezuela, you can treat he as a very mad man doing very mad things ...

I tried to work up a scenario for Harpoon Ultimate Commanders Edition for the US vs.Cuba in the 2013-2014 time frame last summer. I found that the biggest problem was that Cuban military equipment is old and dwindling in numbers. US fourth generation fighters would have a 'turkey-shoot' against Cuban third generation aircraft. Some balance could be established by assuming a background of deep defense cuts in America, and several simultaneous hot spots in the world drawing almost all US forces away from North America. Scrapping the bottom of the barrel would turn up older ships and planes in the Navy Reserve and Air National Guard. Putting 2 or 3 fighters or tankers at every Reserve and Guard base across the southeast US would make strike coordination challenging, not least because the state governors want 'their' planes back at home station every night. Support from Venezuela with 4th gen Su-30MKV's could tip the balance in Cuba's favor - if introduced at the right moment.

 

1. I'm not sure Russia would get involved. Memories of burned fingers in 1962 would remind them how hot the stove can get. China would have the economic, political and military resources to comit to an adventure in the US backyard. The goal might be putting DF-21's in Cuba that would be in range of Mayport and Norfolk, preventing US carriers from leaving their homeports. Venezuela is an easy pick for mischief maker. There is enough friction on their common border that I don't think Brazil would join any team that included Venezuela. I get the impression that Argentina has kept the Falkland/Malvinas embers smouldering, and would focus attention there - treating anything else as a distraction from their goals. I like the idea of including Iran, quietly working to gain influence in the region. North Korea might be another such 'under-the-radar' type player.

 

2. The US might express its displeasure by putting a Coast Guard detachment on every Navy ship around South America and conducting intense board and search operations on any ship owned by the offending countries. The delays and schedule disruptions for merchant shipping would have immediate and long term economic effects.

 

3. A large group of countries (especially Russia and China) arrayed against the US might give some US leaders nightmares of a new cold war. They would not be getting enough sleep, and as my grandfather told me, "Tired people make mistakes".

 

4. Europe as a whole would stay neutral, but European countries with historic ties to Caribbean nations might send some ships or planes to reassure their cousins (ie. UK to Jamaica and Bahamas, France to Martinique, etc.).

 

5. Other considerations:

The third set of larger locks for the Panama Canal are scheduled to open in the next few years. Shipping routes and trade flows will change, but who will see the biggest gains or loses when PanaMax gets redefined.

You did not mention Guantanamo Bay. What happens at the navy base during the crisis?

 

6. I think this is a plausable idea. I would look forward to playing it if you write a version for HUCE.

Good stuff there, Wrench Turner.