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And then there were three?

Featured Replies

  • 2 weeks later...

 

I'm replying here with a copy of my post to SH's blog:

 

While I certainly don't deny the ability of this aircraft to conduct a "Backfire" type mission, I'm wondering if it's wise for us to apply Soviet era terminology to this discussion. The Backfire was designed as a strategic unit with conventional applications, much like the B-52 [with the 'conventional' part being very debatable in this respect].

 

I believe that the PLAN will always consider US and US-Allied aircraft [and this includes the carriers] to be her primary threat, especially land based air from Taiwan and Okinawa with Korea and The Philippines forming a lesser threat. With that in mind, the J-20 is a logical extension of their aircraft inventory.

 

Is this a credible threat? Probably not yet, I once read in a mediocre book that what was the job of a genius is simply the work of a tinsmith in the future. It's easy to make something look like a stealthy fighter, making it work like one is something else entirely. Just look at the F-22 and that project has been underway for 20 years. I doubt the J-20 has been in development half as long.

 

Later

D

I see the J-20 similarly as the DF-21D ASBM (also getting lots of press these days).

 

China is obviously pumping a lot of yuan into its military these days, including a fair bit of effort expended on the cutting edge technologies.

 

Some of it is producing impressive results. Hitting a satellite in orbit from the ground in 2007 was unlikely to have been a fluke.

 

Other examples are - for the time being, at least - might be more aptly described as "all flash and no cash".

 

The DF-21D might indeed have a small chance of hitting a ship at sea, but not every salvo is going to be a winner and there are a lot of things that must go exactly right for it to work.

 

Some of those supporting components (e.g. the OTH radars, the UAVs, the command & control, even the ROE that permits engagement of a US Navy carrier strike group) are 'fragile'.

 

Similarly, the J-20 is more a symbol of what they hope to achieve in the PRC rather than a real contender right now.

 

Rather than start sweating bullets about squadrons of J-20s arrayed around the East/South China Seas in the near future, I'd be thinking about where all this effort is going to take China in 10-15-20 years.

 

A fleet of J-20s (or its final product) that are only half as good as the F-22/F-35, with batteries of DF-21s that only hit their targets a quarter of the time, etc, etc, are still nothing to sneeze at.

 

Especially when your biggest competitor is 3,000 km away.

Video watched (I see it has been played only 640 times, this comment is about the relative scarce number of people can be interested in the issue to watch the video the first day).

Very clever the Chinese revealing the J-20 only after the F-22 program was axed.

Anybody has any idea about the apparently retractable bulge over the fuselage, near the exhaust nozzles ? Test equipment ?

I think this night I will command chinese food ... :lol:

  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 months later...
  • 2 months later...
  • 4 weeks later...

From Reuters

 

[excerpt]

 

New Chinese stealth jet starts talk of Russian help

By Thomas Grove

MOSCOW | Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:40am EDT

 

(Reuters) - Similarities between a new Chinese fighter jet and a prototype Russian plane have brought suggestions that Moscow may be quietly helping Beijing compete with the world's military powers.

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