Raw Intel

The “Out Years” is fantasy. It is a place where people wishcast the future they want. Let’s take a quick look at this gem from the Annual Long-Range Plan for Construction of Naval Vessels for FY 2007. How'd that work out for us? From that report looking forward nine years to 2016, it shows us having spent money on building in that time period … what exactly? Seven (7) DD(X), aka DDG-1000, and six (6) CG(X). Yeah … so be careful trusting these documents. That is why I simply refuse to listen to anyone’s pontifications on 2040 or 2045. Come on people. It’s insulting. Let’s stick with that template of 9-years above, it's bad enough. From today that window would get us to 20…

Ummmm, yep. Rex just about nails it. In the main, the establishment American media abandoned its critical faculties during the Obama campaign — and it hasn’t reclaimed them since. Much of the Obama coverage was orchestrated sycophancy. They glided past his pretensions — when did a presidential candidate before “address the world†from the Brandenberg Gate in Berlin? They ignored his arrogance — “You’re likable enough, Hillary.†And they averted their eyes from his every gaffe — such as the admission that he didn’t speak “Austrian.†The media walked right past the decades-long association of Obama with the weird and racist pastor Jerem…

The Royal Navy speaks so it can sleep at night. Adml Sir Mark Stanhope said the campaign would have been more effective without the Government's defence cuts. The aircraft carrier and the Harrier jump-jets scrapped under last year's strategic defence review would have made the mission more effective, faster and cheaper, he said. Sir Mark warned that the Navy would not be able to sustain its operations in Libya for another three months without making cuts elsewhere. ... "The pros would have been a much more reactive force," he said. "Rather than deploying from Gioia del Colle, we would deploy within 20 minutes as opposed to an hour and a half, so obvious…

We're going to kick out Midrats' 13th year with someone who has been with us from the start, best friend to the show Dr. Claude Berube! If you care about American history in general, and US Navy history in particular, you won't want to miss a minute of this Sunday's show. Claude will be with us for the full hour this Sunday from 5-6pm Eastern to discuss his latest and 4th non-fiction book, On Wide Seas: The US Navy in the Jacksonian Era, just released by University of Alabama Press. Claude earned his PhD in Military History from the King's College, London and holds two master's from Northeastern and the Naval War College. In his 30-year career, he has worked as a defense …

We’ve all seen it; those who promote, protect, and mentor the “deep select” Golden Boy become personally – and professionally – invested in their success. Not content to give them opportunities to succeed or fail on their own, when things do not turn out a perfect as the CV and as those mentors promised they would, the wounded instead make excuses, defend, and deflect any criticism of The Chosen One. Though years and decades pass, they still treat grown men on the edge of middle age as if they are still that promising young staffer they once were – poised for greatness at some point in the future. They never really achieve regular success, but give you the appearance tha…

Time to pull out the Salamander wargame matrix. When I talk “wargame” I am not talking about something that is done with a board with a bunch of little pieces being moved around, that is a Tactical wargame. No, what I am talking about is a grey-matter wargame at the Operational and Strategic level. For those who don’t follow me on twitter, I outlined how this works a couple of weeks ago, For those not in "the guild" - "Blue" here are the good guys, the "Red" here are the bad guys. I'm only going to do 1 combination and 1 round. I'll define that for you; "1 combo" is how you run Blue vs. Red in the matrix you see here. You simplify Blue & Red in to two Courses of Act…

"The Long Game" series has been running here since 2004. 18-years. I'm starting to wonder if the title is all that accurate anymore. That which we have been warning about since the dawn of this blog is - if you are a believer that the PLAN is more than a job's program - here. Well, we're sticking with as it is what it is. If nothing else, you have to give a nod of respect to the People's Republic of China. They had a good plan and stuck with it. Sadly, we still have over 51% of the people who have access to levers of national power who don't get it. Things are getting better, but ... faster please. We are getting closer and closer to the critical mass needed to effecti…

What is Mandarin for "BOLTER"? I told you ... I told you .... you all owe me beer. China may be ready to launch its first aircraft carrier in 2011, Chinese military and political sources said on Thursday, a year ahead of U.S. military analysts' expectations. Analysts expect China to use its first operational aircraft carrier to ensure the security of its oil supply route through the Indian Ocean and near the disputed Spratly Islands, but full capability is still some years away. "The period around July 1 next year to celebrate the (Chinese Communist) Party's birthday is one window (for launch)," one source with ties to the leadership told Reuters, reque…

This would stir thing up a bit. A leading defence expert has projected that China will attack India by 2012 to divert the attention of its own people from "unprecedented" internal dissent, growing unemployment and financial problems that are threatening the hold of Communists in that country. "China will launch an attack on India before 2012. There are multiple reasons for a desperate Beijing to teach India the final lesson, thereby ensuring Chinese supremacy in Asia in this century," Bharat Verma, editor of the Indian Defence Review, has said. Verma said the recession has "shut the Chinese exports shop", creating an "unprecedented internal social unrest" w…

Oh goodness. I really don't want to make it a habit of Fisking Flag Officers, but if you are going to put your by-line out there, well, welcome to the scrum of the marketplace of ideas. VADM Copeman, again, "With all due respect ... but ..." - you brought up the subject. Out of nothing but love ... we must engage on ... the Little Crappy Ship. BEHOLD The alternative universe of the Potomac Flotilla! Sigh. Here we go, paragraph by paragraph. By Vice Admiral Tom Copeman I'll afford you the same benefit of the doubt as I do all VADM, I really don't think you penned it all, someone on your staff got it started and you got a chop on it. Well, I don't know, maybe you did. …

I wish I could claim credit - but in an email from an anon reader; I’m going to wash my mind out with soap for thinking this . . . but recall “ The Final Countdown †and everyone’s fantasy about turning a modern CVN and CVW loose on the Japanese fleet before Pearl harbor? Would a sequel turning LCS loose in the Solomons Campaign then be labeled “Final Letdown� View the full article

First - I am not happy that Galrahn scooped me on this message ... but hey, no one's spies are perfect ... ahem ....... but, this is not a shock to the front porch. 2. SENIOR INSPECTOR COMMENTS: USS FREEDOM (LCS 1) IS EVALUATED AS A "NO-GO" AND IS NOT RECOMMENDED TO PROCEED WITH THE SCHEDULED SPECIAL TRIAL (ST). FREEDOM'S CREW AND CONTRACTORS WERE NOT PREPARED FOR THE INSPECTION. BOTH ENTITIES WERE UNFAMILIAR WITH THE CONDUCT OF INSURV MATERIAL CHECKS. EXECUTION OF THE SOE WAS VERY POOR . THERE WAS CONFUSION BETWEEN CONTRACTOR AND CREW RESPONSIBILITIES FOR THE PERFORMANCE OF EQUIPMENT CHECKS. THE INSPECTION EXPERIENCE LEVEL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CREW IS LOW AL…

From almost day-one of the LCS saga, the turrets-like response to any criticism to the capabilities of this sub-optimal platform has been, “Swarm attack, swarm attack, swarm attack, boobies, pee pee†– or something like that. When the never-was-has-been that was NLOS was deleted from the PPT, about the only reasonable thing that could fill the literal gaping holes was the Griffin missile. After all, we all know in hushed tones the limitations of sensor to shooter of the single … yes single .. 57-mm “main†gun and they had to get something. An OK something now is always better than a perfect thing that may never arrive. The key is to know you just have an OK an…

While working on the orchard at my Dacha/bolthole this weekend, acreage so far off the grid I can't even get broadcast TV unless I get a 20' tower, I had a little revelation when thinking about a video I saw last week. What is one of the breathless reasons we seem to have disgorged so much intellectual, professional, political, and real capital on LCS over the last decade? What is the panic button ... ah yes; "the swarm." Sure, you hear MIW and ASW wishfull chattering of "make it work" about; but the swarm is the driver. The fear of a bunch of expendable guys in small expendable boats with unguided weapons or suicide packages attacking ships in relatively confin…

Theory, meet reality. In theory's corner - Train to Qualify: Commander, Naval Surface Forces, is overseeing the development of a revolutionary training process for the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) called Train to Qualify (T2Q) that will enable LCS’s hybrid Sailors to be fully trained before reporting to the ship. ... Once a Sailor has been chosen to fill the LCS billet, their individual training track will then be made up for them and train them on the skills they are lacking. This will be completed by a combination of online, classroom and simulator training since they will be required to step aboard LCS ready to stand watch. Every qualification will be …

For the Little Crappy Ship and its sub-optimal construct; it's the easiest thing to do. We've been discussing Chris Cavas's articles on LCS for well over a half decade - and his latest work outlines in painful detail what critics have been warning about from the start. More from the Perez report is so Salamanderesque that I swear their team has been hanging out on the front porch. As we said in the middle of last decade, once hulls displace water in number; our reality will trump your PPT. The limited ability of the LCS crew to perform onboard maintenance, and the need to return to port for even basic repairs, “negatively impacts†the ships’ availabilit…

One of the core reasons more people have not joined the LCS bandwagon has been the ongoing contradictions and contrary sales points by its strongest advocates.Earlier this week we bounced the CNO's "not in harms way" off The Under's "LCS will be like Taffy 3" strange rally cry.Well - there is more to chew on that will help explain why LCS just cannot get traction. "If we needed a frigate, we would build a frigate." --- Undersecretary of the Navy Bob Work at the CATO forum: The Future of the U.S. Navy Surface Fleet. P 50 Section 2 of U.S. Navy Program Guide 2012 "Decommissioning of the remaining 26 FFGs is scheduled to occur prior to FY 2019. The LCS will repl…

While the once-great Royal Navy continues to scour the piers for enough duct tape and bailing wire to get a destroyer underway, it appears that—literally—the entire French Navy is getting underway. As she has done before, she is moving east in response to another crisis in Lebanon where there are a lot of French citizens and the general disquiet in the Eastern Mediterrenean. This time, as a side-show to the Israeli-American conflict with Iran, as it appears a final move is going to be made against Hezbollah by the Lebanese. How much of the fleet? Well, it appears that if it can leave the pier, it is going. Via Cap-Hornier, Nearly the entire fleet is at sea: 19 of the 23 m…

Standard launching announcement; Minister for Defence Stephen Smith and Minister for Defence Materiel Jason Clare today announced the launch of the second Landing Helicopter Dock (LHD) at the Navantia shipyard in Spain. The launch represented a major milestone in the shipbuilding process and was attended by the Chief of Navy, Vice Admiral Ray Griggs. Australia is acquiring two amphibious ships for the Australian Defence Force (ADF). The LHDs are the largest ships ever built for the Royal Australian Navy and will provide the ADF with one of the most capable and sophisticated amphibious deployment systems in the world. The Canberra Class LHDs are bi…

The Economist in the last six months published a series of interesting articles on the challenges of anti-submarine warfare. As long time readers may have figured out, I love - from a professional perspective - ASW. Neglected and unloved by most, but to me a passion. Though few really cared outside fellow fetishists, I was actually damn good at it - for an officer. It is all math and a little bit of instinct built by experience, but since I got too old to play tactical and was needed elsewhere - and then after leaving AD totally out of it - I've had to nibble what I can off of open source. For those of you who share this passion, one thing we are always looking for is …