What is Mandarin for "BOLTER"?

 

I told you ... I told you .... you all owe me beer.

China may be ready to launch its first aircraft carrier in 2011, Chinese military and political sources said on Thursday, a year ahead of U.S. military analysts' expectations.

 

Analysts expect China to use its first operational aircraft carrier to ensure the security of its oil supply route through the Indian Ocean and near the disputed Spratly Islands, but full capability is still some years away.

 

"The period around July 1 next year to celebrate the (Chinese Communist) Party's birthday is one window (for launch)," one source with ties to the leadership told Reuters, requesting anonymity because the carrier programme is one of China's most closely guarded secrets.

 

The Defense Ministry spokesman's office declined to comment.

 

The possible launch next year of the ex-Soviet aircraft carrier 'Varyag' for training, and testing technology, will be one step toward building an operating aircraft carrier group, analysts said.

 

The U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence estimates the Varyag will be launched as a training platform by 2012, and China will have an operational domestically built carrier after 2015.

I snickered when I read this as it is another, "Duh."

 

People thought I was paranoid when I said that would be a casino about the same time I become a Marine - but remember, you aren't being paranoid if people are actually out to get you.

A Chinese firm bought the then-engineless Varyag from Ukraine in 1998 for $20 million, planning to convert it to a floating casino in Macau, but the Chinese military then bought the vessel.

The learning curve is steep - but the Chinese have plenty of their blood and our treasure to spend on it.

 

2030 will be interesting.

 

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I dunno ... absent a truly major advance in ASW, 2030 may prove to be fairly calm. The PRC will be importing so much oil by sea that they'll be in a horrible spot if somebody with a modern sub force gets annoyed with them. Of course, if Moore's Law holds up, we may well see that truly major advance in ASW, too ...