Another Senkaku crisis. July 2024. Hypothetical Scenario.

Another Senkaku crisis. July 2024. Hypothetical Scenario.

A Harpoon Commander's Edition scenario for the Western Pacific WesPac Battleset and the HCDB2-170909 (or later) 1980-2025 era Platform Database. This scenario is designed with Advanced Scenario Editor Build 2017.013 and to be run with HCE 2015.008+ or later.

This scenario is designed to be played from the Blue/Japanese side or from the Red/Chinese side. You should play a few times first the Blue side to avoid spoilers, and only later play the Red side.

Image: JS Shimokita LST-4002, sistership of the JS Osumi LST-4001 depicted on this scenario, and JS Izakuchi DD-107, of the Murusame class, predecessor and very similar to the Japanese destroyers of this scenario. Undated photo, probably near March 2002 when Shimokita was commissioned. Took from Wikipedia Commons and licensed under the Japanese Government Standard Terms of Use (Version 2.0). These terms of use are compatible with Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International, and the image is referenced as: https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%83%95%E3%82%A1%E3%82%A4%E3%83%AB:LST-4002_%E3%81%97%E3%82%82%E3%81%8D%E3%81%9F_(1).jpg

 

An apparently simple scenario based on The Naval SITREP 70 issue (April 2026) article “You Say Diaoyu, We Say Senkaku”, by Martyn Kelly, and played with Harpoon paper rules at Historicon 2024.

Basically the Chinese are defending the recent occupied islands, and the Japanese are trying to recovery the inhabited territory.

Both sides concurring with very limited theatre forces, to avoid an escalade.

In consequence not too easy for any side.

 

Enrique Mas, April 18, 2026.

File Information

Submitter broncepulido

Submitted 04/19/2026

Category WestPac

View File

Some sources:

https://www.wargamevault.com/en/product/564343/naval-sitrep-70-april-2026?src=hottest

https://www.wargamevault.com/en/product/562611/japan-s-self-defense-forces?src=hottest

https://www.wargamevault.com/en/product/372205/china-s-navy?src=hottest_filtered

https://www.navypedia.org/ships/japan/jap_destroyers.htm

About the Osumi sistership Kunisaki LST-4003 capable of carrying 3x CH-47JA and 2x UH-60JA in response to the 2004 Sumatra earthquake:

https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%81%8F%E3%81%AB%E3%81%95%E3%81%8D_(%E8%BC%B8%E9%80%81%E8%89%A6)

4 hours ago, donaldseadog said:

Few time these days, I'm not sure the scenario is winnable both sides.

If at first you don't succeed, ...

(try again in case your luck has improved)

********** SPOILER ALERT ************

Well we basically just followed orders, and got lucky with the very early deluge of ballistic missiles.

We used our choppers sparingly to seek out any surface combatants that could hinder our advance, and found them. The lower threats were advanced on until within in accurate gunnery range, then hammered.

Regular and pesky air patrols from a mainland base took a couple of our choppers before they could dash back, skimming the wave tops wasn't good enough to evade detection and then the inevitable.

TotalGameTimeDuration=11Hrs34Mins

GameTimeToGO=12 Hrs: 25 Mins

RealTimeDuration ThisSession=1:26:40

[StoresConsumed - Blue]

Blue Weapon=Tally

SM-2MR Block IIIB=38

AGM-114M Hellfire II=10

RGM-84D Harpoon=4

SSM-2 (Type 90/96)=8

SSM-1 (Type 88/90)=16

RIM-162A ESSM=40

127mm/62 Mk45 HE=218

127mm/54 Compact HE=104

Squad Rifle=2

12.7mm MG burst=16

Platoon Infantry=3

[StoresConsumed - Red]

Red Weapon=Tally

DF-21D ASBM=10

YJ-18=16

C-803 (YJ-83)=24

AA-12 Adder A (R-77)=5

AA-11 Archer (R-73)=8

HQ-9 (FD-2000)=4

SA-N-12 Grizzly (Shtil-1)=26

QW-4=10

AS-14 Kedge (Kh-29T)=4

130mm/54 AK-130 HE=11

Thanks for this one Enrique. I have a feeling the outcome could well be different every time it's played. Luck dodging, or not, those ballistic missiles is a big determining factor. I might give it a run as the Red side and see what happens.

Great report Don, thanks for sharing.