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The situation in Ukraine


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2 hours ago, Silent Hunter UK said:

DoD has said it is still afloat and heading for Sevastopol.

Yes, I see a US defence official has stated she is still afloat and moving east. Possibly under tow. There are a congregation of Russian search & rescue and support vessels in the area, and Russian warships in the Black Sea appear to have moved generally away from the Ukrainian coast (and thus away from the potential missile threat.) The presence of an orbiting Global Hawk (callsign Forte10) southwest of Crimea is probably providing superb and timely intel.

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Notable for me in the photo above:

1. The 3R41 Volna (NATO Top Dome) fire control radar for the S-300F Fort (NATO SA-N-6a Grumble) air defence system in its usual, standby position, rather than appearing to have been in the process of engaging anything.

2. The Osa-2M (NATO SA-N-4b Gecko) air defence systems, on either side of the hangar, are still in their retracted positions inside their cylindrical enclosures, rather than appearing to have been in the process of engaging anything.

This seems to be strongly suggestive of a ship that was caught entirely by surprise.

The area of the apparent damage/fire -- just aft of the P-1000 Vulkan (NATO SS-N-12 Sandbox mod 2) antiship missile launchers, and just ahead of the funnels -- makes sense for a missile(s) hit. Given that active radar guided antiship missiles (like Neptun) would ordinarily home on the centroid of the radar return.

Notably, there are a pair of AK-630M CIWS in this area, lending more credence to the idea that the air defences of Moskva were completely surprised.

 

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