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The situation in Ukraine


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2 hours ago, Silent Hunter UK said:

DoD has said it is still afloat and heading for Sevastopol.

Yes, I see a US defence official has stated she is still afloat and moving east. Possibly under tow. There are a congregation of Russian search & rescue and support vessels in the area, and Russian warships in the Black Sea appear to have moved generally away from the Ukrainian coast (and thus away from the potential missile threat.) The presence of an orbiting Global Hawk (callsign Forte10) southwest of Crimea is probably providing superb and timely intel.

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Notable for me in the photo above:

1. The 3R41 Volna (NATO Top Dome) fire control radar for the S-300F Fort (NATO SA-N-6a Grumble) air defence system in its usual, standby position, rather than appearing to have been in the process of engaging anything.

2. The Osa-2M (NATO SA-N-4b Gecko) air defence systems, on either side of the hangar, are still in their retracted positions inside their cylindrical enclosures, rather than appearing to have been in the process of engaging anything.

This seems to be strongly suggestive of a ship that was caught entirely by surprise.

The area of the apparent damage/fire -- just aft of the P-1000 Vulkan (NATO SS-N-12 Sandbox mod 2) antiship missile launchers, and just ahead of the funnels -- makes sense for a missile(s) hit. Given that active radar guided antiship missiles (like Neptun) would ordinarily home on the centroid of the radar return.

Notably, there are a pair of AK-630M CIWS in this area, lending more credence to the idea that the air defences of Moskva were completely surprised.


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  • 3 months later...

Its an excellent overview of what likely happened to Moskva.

I do question one conclusion, the assertion that a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 provided targeting for the Neptun battery.

I think it is probably just as likely (or even more likely) that an American Global Hawk UAV performed that role. (Although admittedly I haven't looked to confirm if the Global Hawk that was patrolling in the area was actually in position at the time.)

My reasoning is as follows:

(1) I am doubtful that the UA would send the TB2 into the air defence envelope of the Moskva, not just because of the risk to the UAV but it would also alert the ship.

(2) The UA hasn't offered any imagery of the attack on Moskva taken by a TB2. I would think they would want to exploit the propaganda value of such imagery, as they did with Snake Island. Especially since Russia (predictably) denied that the ship was lost to an attack.


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Adversarial Studies Seminar: How the War in Ukraine is Evolving

Monday, 05 September 2022
15:00 - 16:00 (BST)

We are delighted to be joined again by Michael Kofman, Director of Russia Studies at the Center for Naval Analysis, for a discussion on how the war in Ukraine is evolving. This event will examine how the Russian army has adjusted since its initial faltering invasion, the Ukrainian response, and the probable course of events in the coming months. The seminar will be chaired by Dr Sidharth Kaushal, Research Fellow, Sea Power, RUSI Military Sciences.

How to Attend

This event is open to all. To take part, you must pre-register no later than 4 September 2022 using the ‘Register Now’ button above. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.


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