Chicago Tribune

April 9, 2007

 

Musharraf Opposition Galvanizes

 

As protests grow and support weakens for Pakistan's president, the U.S. faces possible loss of crucial ally

 

By Kim Barker and Bay Fang, Tribune correspondents

 

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- For 27 years, Anwar Khan Afridi served in the Pakistani army. But the retired colonel now plans to mail his eight medals back to the government. He also wants to return his army pension of two plots of land and $313 a month.

 

"I will no longer write anything using the name 'colonel,'" said Afridi, 58, holding his military decorations as he joined 4,000 other protesters outside Pakistan's Supreme Court last week. "I will return these medals."

 

The target of Afridi's angry gesture is his own commander in chief, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, a crucial if troublesome U.S. ally in the war on terror who is facing the most serious challenge to his eight-year rule.

 

Since seizing power in 1999, Musharraf has survived two assassination attempts by Islamic extremists, increasing criticism of his cozy relationship with the United States and many calls by opponents to step down or give up his role as army chief. But Musharraf now risks losing support even within the military after suspending the country's chief justice, Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry -- a move many saw as an attempt to clear away a potential obstacle to his maintaining power.

 

As the protests have spread and grown larger, the crisis has raised concerns in Washington and the European Union about what happens next in the nuclear-armed, strategically placed country. Some worry that Musharraf, in an attempt to quell the protests, could make concessions to hard-line Islamic political parties in the country's tribal areas that could benefit Al Qaeda or Taliban militants.

 

Others worry about the country's stability if Musharraf is pushed out, especially given Pakistan's volatile relationship with neighbors Afghanistan and India, the latter also a nuclear power.

 

Many in the West fear that an Islamic extremist or other isolationist, anti-Western leader could take over if Musharraf loses his post. While most Pakistanis vote for secular parties, any new president might not be as willing to manage Musharraf's balancing act -- promising to cooperate in the fight against Al Qaeda and the Taliban while risking the wrath of the Islamists that Pakistan and Musharraf tacitly supported before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

 

Key Bush administration ally

 

Whether Musharraf rides out the political storm is a matter of great concern to the Bush administration. U.S. support for the president has led to deep public suspicions of U.S. motives toward Pakistan -- and if Musharraf leaves, the U.S. may have nowhere to turn.

 

"It is really astonishing how much the administration has put all its eggs in the Musharraf basket and has no preparation in place whatsoever to figure out how to deal with a post-Musharraf Pakistan," said Christine Fair, a political scientist at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Sean McCormack, the U.S. State Department spokesman, said the U.S. is watching the protests closely but that the dispute is "a matter that the Pakistanis need to resolve within the confines of their laws and constitution." The Pakistani army inevitably will play an important role in whatever happens. Traditionally, the army is the source of most power in Pakistan; no ruler can last without its support. If the crisis worsens, some Pakistanis say, Musharraf's fellow army commanders could ask him to step down.

 

"There is only one question in the country: Will the army remain loyal to him?" said Akram Zaki, a senior vice president for the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Q party. "If the army remains loyal, then he cannot be overthrown. If the army does not remain loyal, then he cannot hold on to power."

 

Analysts say Musharraf still has the support of the generals but that an escalation of the crisis might lead them to quietly ask him to resign to maintain the military's legitimacy. That has happened before in Pakistan's short history.

 

Marvin Weinbaum, a scholar at the Middle East Institute who worked as an intelligence analyst on Pakistan and Afghanistan, said of the president's support among the generals: "At the moment, Musharraf still brings home the bacon -- that being the U.S. and all of its military hardware. But if they think at any point that Musharraf is a liability, they will choose to look after their own corporate interests."

 

If Musharraf is asked to leave, he likely would be succeeded by another moderate general, who probably would want to continue cooperation with the United States, analysts say. What the Pakistani military fears most is alienating the U.S. and pushing it toward a stronger strategic alliance with rival India.

 

Although it is regarded as unlikely that an Islamist government would step in after Musharraf, even the military could feel the need to make more concessions to Islamic extremist parties. And even if he succeeds in riding out the storm, Musharraf may have to make concessions to those parties, which have been influential in rousing support for the protests.

 

"He has to make some compromises. He can't be the goalkeeper who's fielding balls from all sides, with no one on his team," said Husain Haqqani, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute who advised three former Pakistani prime ministers.

 

Musharraf's government defends the decision to oust chief justice Chaudhry last month over allegations of nepotism and abuse of his office. Information Minister Muhammad Ali Durrani blamed Islamic extremists and opposition political parties for taking advantage of the case to launch protests. "Everything is in line with the constitution, but in our country, the opposition is always ready to exploit any situation, especially the extremist parties," Durrani said.

 

Musharraf still enjoys support from key sectors. "All businessmen would like Musharraf to stay on," said one engineer, who did not want his name used because he feared any Musharraf successor might retaliate. "I'm not getting married to the guy, but all businessmen want stability in government and growth, and this government has given us that."

 

Among Pakistanis fed up with their government, Chaudhry's removal was the tipping point. In their view, the judge was a defender of human rights and was removed simply because he was a potential threat to Musharraf. In February, Chaudhry risked the regime's ire by ruling that the government should investigate the fate of hundreds of alleged Islamic militants who were detained or are missing.

 

Critics tie move to re-election

 

Critics believe that Musharraf wanted to intimidate the judiciary and pave the way for a smooth re-election. He is expected to ask parliament to vote him in again before new parliamentary elections scheduled for the end of this year. He also is expected to keep rejecting calls for him to give up his army post.

 

Both moves would be unconstitutional, critics say, and opponents probably would challenge either move in the Supreme Court, which Chaudhry headed until last month.

 

Part of the opposition to Musharraf has to do with his relationship with the U.S.

 

"People are angry because they have the impression that Musharraf compromised part of Pakistan's sovereignty in the war on terror," said Syed Hasnat, a visiting scholar with the Middle East Institute who headed the political science department at the University of the Punjab. "They don't like coordinating with the Bush administration."

 

Some Pakistanis believe that Washington cares only about the military and not the Pakistani people. Of the $10 billion in aid that the U.S. government has given to Pakistan in the last five years, $8 billion has gone to the military, analysts said.

 

Recent criticism of Musharraf by U.S. officials over his handling of militants on the Afghan border may have bolstered support for Musharraf. "The more the U.S. is seen to be coming down on Musharraf and the army, the more the military has the incentive to coalesce around him," Fair said.

 

The unrest culminated in the largest protest yet last Tuesday during a court hearing into the government's abuse-of-power allegations against Chaudhry. Many newspapers and television stations also have begun criticizing Musharraf and, indirectly, the military -- previously untouchable targets.

 

The Tuesday protest was largely peaceful, unlike a demonstration March 16 when police fought demonstrators and broke into a television station broadcasting footage of the violence. Smaller protests Tuesday in Karachi, Lahore and Quetta also were peaceful.

 

The demonstration in Islamabad was more like 18 political rallies, with competing banners and marchers and flags and an occasional collision between groups. Islamists marched next to secular politicians, a few of whom had received death threats for allegedly taking un-Islamic stands in the past.

 

A group of Pakistani-American doctors even flew into the country and met with Chaudhry for an hour last Monday.

 

"This movement will get larger and larger," said Mohammad Toor, a cardiologist from Joliet, Ill. "I don't think Musharraf can clamp down again."

 

Kim Barker reported from Islamabad and Bay Fang from Washington.

I don't want to sound harsh or brash but a change of power in Pakistan could allow some intrepid special forces to take up work in some mountain territory currently off limits. The confusion during transition to a new ruling government might provide enough time for a good once over and sowing of sensors?

 

Then life gets interesting as nice US built equipment falls into the hands of people we don't want to face militarily and nuclear weapons are taken up by possibly less stable commanders not as worried about the world stage.

I don't want to sound harsh or brash but a change of power in Pakistan could allow some intrepid special forces to take up work in some mountain territory currently off limits. The confusion during transition to a new ruling government might provide enough time for a good once over and sowing of sensors?

 

Then life gets interesting as nice US built equipment falls into the hands of people we don't want to face militarily and nuclear weapons are taken up by possibly less stable commanders not as worried about the world stage.

 

Tony, I agree that the first 18-24 months could be an outstanding opportunity for special forces operations in/around/across the border. After that time, concern will continue building over possession of the nuclear weapons and their delivery systems. Also, how would India react to either growing uncertainty or extremism with their historical arch-enemy?

No bright side here. Bad guys in control of Pakistan would be a bad scene all around.

Wall Street Journal

April 20, 2007

Pg. 7

 

How Extremists May Gain In Pakistan

 

By Zahid Hussain

 

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Pakistan's capital is at a boil, with Islamist mobs meting out vigilante justice, a fatwa issued against the tourism minister, pro-democracy protests intensifying, fearful residents demanding order and the prospects for elections uncertain.

 

How -- or whether -- Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf reconciles these demands could determine how deeply resurgent Islamist extremism takes root in this moderate Muslim nation of 155 million people.

 

As North Atlantic Treaty Organization troops battle Taliban insurgents across the border in Afghanistan, two influential Muslim clerics are setting up a religious court in Islamabad and encouraging squads of zealots to enforce an antivice campaign. Westernized and politically moderate Pakistanis worry about this threat of "Talibanization."

 

But moderates are divided over how to tackle extremists. About 100,000 people rallied Sunday in Karachi, Pakistan's largest city, to call for tough action against the antivice campaign. That protest was organized by the Mutahida Qami Movement, a secular party that supports Gen. Musharraf in the coalition government.

 

Other moderate parties say Islamist radicals could best be fought by a civilian-led government that also has the military's backing. These parties want Gen. Musharraf to step down as army chief and allow elections and unfettered democracy.

 

Gen. Musharraf galvanized the opposition last month with his dismissal of the country's top judge for what the government called "misconduct." Critics claim Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry was removed because Gen. Musharraf was unhappy with his rulings. The dismissal sparked a series of violent, growing protests against Gen. Musharraf and his military-backed government. Critics fear Gen. Musharraf will use the unrest to postpone legislative elections due in October, when his five-year term expires.

 

President Musharraf has announced his intention to seek another term but hasn't indicated he plans to resign his post as army chief of staff, as required by Pakistan's constitution.

 

The political instability is increasingly worrying officials in the Bush administration, who generally view U.S. policy as wholly tied to Gen. Musharraf. The growing protests against his rule have raised debates within Washington policy circles about who might succeed him. But U.S. officials say they see few real alternatives, particularly as opposition leaders such as former Premier Benazir Bhutto have poor track records as rulers.

 

"There's no real Plan B," said a U.S. official working in South Asia.

 

Even if polls are held this year, Mr. Musharraf is likely to hold on to the presidency: Pakistan's president isn't directly elected, but chosen by an electoral college, comprised of the legislature and the provincial assemblies.

 

Political analysts in Pakistan say public anger with Gen. Musharraf could turn against his major source of authority: the military. "The general has started the war within for only one reason: to perpetuate his rule," asserts Tariq Hassan, a Harvard-educated attorney and former World Bank executive. "He has not only denigrated the highest judicial institution in the country but has also caused grievous harm to his own constituency -- the army."

 

Meanwhile, dozens of bearded students of a local religious school have been roaming the capital in recent days, wielding sticks and demanding that video shops close for selling products in violation of Islamic law.

 

Hundreds of female Muslim students of another radical school, shrouded head to toe in black burqas, have raided houses in residential neighborhoods in Islamabad they claim are being used as brothels.

 

Zealots are a common sight at traffic lights around the capital, where they warn women to stop driving -- another supposed sin against Islam.

 

The campaign in Islamabad is led by two radical clerics -- Maulana Abdul Rashid Ghazi and his brother Maulana Abdul Aziz. The brothers have set up their unauthorized Islamic court at Lal Masjid, or Red Mosque, where they are prayer leaders and head the adjacent women's religious school. Both openly support Osama bin Laden and urge holy war against the West.

 

As part of their campaign, Lal Masjid clerics Saturday issued a fatwa, or religious decree, calling for the sacking and trial of Tourism Minister Nilofer Bakhtiar, who was photographed hugging her paraglider pilot after completing a jump in France. The clerics deemed such displays of affection between the sexes un-Islamic, and Ms. Bakhtiar has gotten death threats.

 

The Lal Masjid clerics aren't affiliated with a political party, though their actions mirror the rise of the Taliban, whose law-and-order campaign was a path to power in Afghanistan. The Islamist vigilantism in Islamabad follows incidents in which religious radicals have attacked video shops and burned TV sets in northern border areas with Afghanistan, a sanctuary for Taliban insurgents. In these areas, barbers have been warned since early this year not to shave beards, and people are prohibited from playing music, even at weddings. Women are barred from coming out of their homes alone.

 

Gen. Musharraf's government has done little to stem the influence of Islamic extremists. Many Pakistani political analysts say the extremism presents a serious threat to Pakistan's political stability and regional security. Critics accuse the president of allowing radical clerics in Islamabad to act with impunity to avoid confronting the possibility of more opposition from conservative Muslims or provoking terrorist reprisals from militants.

 

"No one believes that the government is helpless or incapacitated against the religious extremists," says Najam Sethi, editor of the independent Pakistani newspaper the Daily Times. "Gen. Musharraf seems to be digging in for the status quo, which is actually a recipe for Islamic insurrection" in the long run.

 

--Jay Solomon in Washington contributed to this article.