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Does time compression affect probabilities in an way?

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Does time compression (T/C) affect the PH or probability of detection in any material way? Every so often I notice something that makes it seem that having the time set to 10 secs or faster (or increasing the T/C to 10 Sec or greater during an encounter) alters the probabilities of certain events rather noticably - although I've really never been able to pin this down.

 

Is there any reason why running the game "fast" would make it less likely for a missile, torpedo, etc. to score a hit... or make it less likely for a Sonabouy to detect a sub... or make it more likely for an air group to run out of fuel (as due to a delayed BINGO advisement, etc.)... or make detections less likely to occur?

 

If T/C is an issue in regards to any of this, then what recommendations are there as far as the appropriate T/C to use in given situations... or other general guidelines for using T/C in ways that will avoid any undesirable effects - or avoid producing an inadvertent "cheat" situation?

Does time compression (T/C) affect the PH or probability of detection in any material way? Every so often I notice something that makes it seem that having the time set to 10 secs or faster (or increasing the T/C to 10 Sec or greater during an encounter) alters the probabilities of certain events rather noticably - although I've really never been able to pin this down.

Is there any reason why running the game "fast" would make it less likely for a missile, torpedo, etc. to score a hit... or make it less likely for a Sonabouy to detect a sub... or make it more likely for an air group to run out of fuel (as due to a delayed BINGO advisement, etc.)... or make detections less likely to occur? If T/C is an issue in regards to any of this, then what recommendations are there as far as the appropriate T/C to use in given situations... or other general guidelines for using T/C in ways that will avoid any undesirable effects - or avoid producing an inadvertent "cheat" situation?

 

It doesn't affect hit probabilities or detection probabilities in the sense you probably mean, but obviously, speeding up the clock does make things happen more quickly. Since many sensor sweeps only happen periodically (e.g. sonar once every five minutes), speeding up the clock is going to increase the number of sweeps that happen in real time (your time).

Prior to HC2002 game calculation outcome was influenced by the time compression setting. Bret for HC2002 changed the evaluation of all game events to happen every game second since computing power had reached a point to make this feasible. Time compression does not affect sensor sweeps as Brad says, nor when the staff assistant pops up, those two I know for absolute certainty. Map redraws are not forced every game second so it is possible that your map view will jump around more at high time compressions, making it seem like you are missing something (especially in the current betas, working on that eventually...).

 

I'm not saying it is impossible that something got missed but based on the method Bret used I don't see how it would be possible for any events to have been missed.

  • Author
Does time compression (T/C) affect the PH or probability of detection in any material way? Every so often I notice something that makes it seem that having the time set to 10 secs or faster (or increasing the T/C to 10 Sec or greater during an encounter) alters the probabilities of certain events rather noticably - although I've really never been able to pin this down.

Is there any reason why running the game "fast" would make it less likely for a missile, torpedo, etc. to score a hit... or make it less likely for a Sonabouy to detect a sub... or make it more likely for an air group to run out of fuel (as due to a delayed BINGO advisement, etc.)... or make detections less likely to occur? If T/C is an issue in regards to any of this, then what recommendations are there as far as the appropriate T/C to use in given situations... or other general guidelines for using T/C in ways that will avoid any undesirable effects - or avoid producing an inadvertent "cheat" situation?

 

It doesn't affect hit probabilities or detection probabilities in the sense you probably mean, but obviously, speeding up the clock does make things happen more quickly. Since many sensor sweeps only happen periodically (e.g. sonar once every five minutes), speeding up the clock is going to increase the number of sweeps that happen in real time (your time).

Yes, I was thinking along the lines of "missing" things. Some specific examples that come to mind are times when I was running at fairly high compressions and it seemed like one of the following things happened:

- Air groups would run out of fuel and crash "prematurely" (That is, they should have had enough gas)

- AI air groups would get into attack position on an AWACS or similar before they were ever detected (which rarely happens at slower game speeds)

- Torpedoes and anti-ship missiles would all miss (in situations where they usually had a fairly good chance of getting at least one hit)

 

In some cases, I re-loaded the last game-save and re-played the segment at normal speed, and the behavior would be more "normal".

 

All this led me to wonder if maybe some things (like calculations) were getting "skipped" or not being done as frequently, in order to accomplish the time compression. It was almost like I could "cheat" - like, if a sub had caught my ship with its pants down, I could re-play with a much higher compression, and the otherwise-doomed ship would survive. Conversely, in the reverse scenario where my sub had launched torps against an AI ship, if I got "impatient" and sped up the game, then the shots would miss... but if let it play out at no more than 10 Sec compression, then my shots would generally get at least one hit. It was all very inconclusive, considering the probabilities involved, but things like that happen often enough to make me wonder about it.

 

But, more importantly, I'm curious if such an effect does occur, then maybe it is somehow "inducing" some of the other behaviors regarding unexpected hit rates and so forth - because I do tend to fuss with the time compression quite often while playing.

Back when there was a multi-player beta for HC, I played an original GIUK scenario where Red was trying to break a whole herd of subs out through the gap. Due to the demands of the other players, we were running at fairly high time compression, something like 1 minute per second. I was controlling a dozen or so NATO MPAs, and I got this incredible string of something like 20 one-shot kills of Red subs in the space of half an hour. I've always wondered if the time compression had something to do with it ... :D

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