Yishten

Having read some of the Red details, I realize I must offer an apology. I failed to note and remember the details about Uragan fire director locations. Especially in the first wave of fires against the Harpoons, I suspect more targets were engaged than actually possible, which no doubt would have had an impact on the ultimate outcome. Mea culpa.

"On May 29, 1987, I, commanding Stoykiy, and my colleague, commanding Ladnyy, were escorting three merchant vessels to Kuwait City. At roughly 1100, we were traveling under minimal emissions with Stoykiy's Hormone aloft and searching at a distance from the convoy, at that time roughly 100 nm east of Manama. At this time, we began to pick up the signature of APS-115 emissions. By 1124, the Hormone pilot had reported visual identification of aircraft contrails approaching and was ordered to deactivate radar and return to Stoykiy; Stoykiy's 3D radar was activated at that time, with additional radars activated shortly thereafter, and this radar picked up an air contact presumed to be a P-3. When challenged, this aircraft identified itself as an Iranian aircraft, and I requested that it maintain a 25 nm perimeter to avoid unintended mishaps given the tense atmosphere resulting from recent attacks by Iranian forces on neutral shipping and convoys in the Persian Gulf. "At 1142 we began to pick up the signal of an active APQ-120, and given the context of this contact, we tentatively presumed this to be Iranian from Iranian F-4E aircraft. When we were able to pick up the specific contact on radar, I again repeated my request for identification and to maintain a 25 nm perimeter. This request received no response, though neither air contact approached the convoy at this time, and the presumed F4-E would depart by 1510 without further incident. "At 1412 we detected an incoming helicopter on radar; various characteristics suggested it to be an AB-204, which raised concern for a Babr-class vessel operating in the vicinity. This contact was also challenged for identification and asked to maintain a 25 nm perimeter; this contact also provided no response, and by 1430, despite repeated warnings that continued silence and approach would be viewed as indicative of hostile intent, the helicopter had approached to 15 nm from the convoy. However, the helicopter did not approach closely enough for visual identification before turning away, although unlike the previous presumptive F4-E contact, the helicopter qould only briefly move away, returning by 1545 whence it continued to linger at roughly 15 nm from the convoy. "At roughly 1550 we felt it safe to launch the Hormone again, with the intent to circle the convoy at altitude with radar emitting. However, no sooner had the Hormone reached altitude than its radar began picking up three surface contacts approaching on two different bearings. The vessels were challenged for identification and advised to maintain a 30 nm perimeter from the convoy, and again these requests were met with no response. Despite repeated warnings, the surface contacts continued to approach, and at 1603 they breached the stated 30 nm perimeter. In the context of recent events, including the helicopter contact well inside the 25 nm perimeter requested as well as the lingering P3-F self-identified as Iranian, the incoming surface contacts were deemed hostile. A limited barrage of one Moskit per vessel was launched, met nearly-simultaneously by two of the incoming vessels launching a spread of eight Harpoon missiles at our convoy. Based on this response, these two vessels were identified as probable Iranian Combattante IIBs, and based on the aforementioned helicopter contact's tentative identification, the third vessel was presumed to be a Babr-class vessel. "Confident that the single Moskit launched at each Combattante would prove sufficient, I ordered a total of four more Moskits fired at the presumptive Babr-class vessel staggered in two waves, based upon indicators that one or more of the earlier missiles were defeated. At the same time, I began to launch Uragan SAMs at the incoming Harpoon missiles, which fortunately proved ultimately sufficient to eliminate that threat. The result of the fired Moskits was that all surface contacts were apparently disabled as well. "At 1606, while the missile exchange was underway, we began to pick up radar signatures suggesting one or more F4-Es were approaching the convoy, and shorty thereafter the presumed AB-204 also began to approach. These approaching air contacts were met with further Uragan launches, and ultimately all attacking aircraft were disabled or destroyed. Later, the Iranian P3-F withdrew, and the convoy continued to Kuwait City without further incident. Neither the convoy nor escorts were damaged in the exchange, though 24 Uragans and 7 Moskits were fired. "I know there are some who will question the legality of declaring a perimeter around the convoy and considering it a hostile action to approach closer than that perimeter. However, recent weeks have seen neutral merchant and naval vessels operating in international waters coming under attack by Iranian forces despite the legal dilemma this poses. In this context, and in the context of approaching forces, tentatively identified as Iranian based upon operating characteristics and proximity, both temporally and spatially, to an identified Iranian aircraft, with such forces unwilling to identify themselves and expressing no complaint regarding the requested perimeter, I would have been derelict not to note the prospect of hostile intent. As events unfolded, it happened that this understanding of the intent was proven correct. "I consider it consistent with the best interpretation of my orders and, perhaps more importantly, of my duty as an officer of this navy to have used all methods and material at my disposal to safeguard the lives of the men and the integrity of the vessels under my care. Though I made every effort to not do so rashly, I felt it most appropriately to respond resolutely-- any failure to do so on my part would have exposed a ship or a sailor under my care to unnecessary potential harm." The above is something of a summary and a justification from the perspective of Stoykiy's captain. From the perspective of a player, most of the same rationale applies, with the addenda that translating the moral imperatives into game details meant that any damage to either Stoykiy or Ladnyy meant that a decisive victory was out (though such damage did not, directly, help Red much with achieving a victory for themselves). This meant that, even in a best case scenario, we in effect had to choose between basically giving up on the prospect of a decisive victory, or else be willing to fire upon Red without waiting for Red to take a definite hostile act, such as opening fire-- not that such would have been an appealing prospect anyway, as even if it did not directly impact victory conditions, damage to the escorts would decrease our ability to accomplish our primary mission. I had an appreciation for the Sovremenyy on paper, but seeing it in action helps to hammer home the fundamental effectiveness of the design. As CV32 pointed out elsewhere, Red had a tough job in front of them; I didn't appreciate, going into it, just how tough a job it was. I am not sure what the prior PBEM process was (I get the impression from the last scenario that using the forum for PBEM in this way is relatively new) but I think this process works very effectively indeed. I think a de facto protocol standardizing a method of signaling "here are orders" as was requested later in the game is not only reasonable but, at least in more-than-one-on-one scenario, probably a necessity. I apologize for any frustrations my failure to consistently implement one prior to that point caused. As I said after the last scenario, I think SimPlot Viewer is an excellent and effective tool for facilitating H4 play. It seems especially superior to a lot of other methods for PBEM purposes, and I can imagine it (though I have no firsthand experience of it) being effective in non-PBEM venues as well. I am tempted to learn how to use SimPlot from the other side of the table, and if I can figure it out, would be inclined to return the favor by running a scenario-- I have an appreciation of it as a tool from a player perspective, and I suspect I'd have a similar appreciation from a referee perspective.

I concur. Nicely played, and thank you all for the game. Also, especially thank you to kmart494 for running things.

Any evident air targets that are present or should appear momentarily should receive gun and Uragan fire-- 2 Uragans on any apparent aircraft (excluding H016 if it even qualifies as a target at this point), up to 4 Uragans on any missiles or other targets of opportunity. If no further targets become evident in the next 30-60s, I propose we get the merchants back on heading, move to take up positions (only this time with Ladnyy in front, Stoykiy in back), start the Hormone circling the convoy again at cruise speed (it should be able to stay aloft until roughly 1730, at which point I would bring it in), and return to convoy speed headed toward Kuwait. The idea would be to pass no closer than 28 nm to S011 without entering territorial waters of Saudi Arabia. On the off chance that A014 comes into range, I will fire Uragans at it. If other targets become apparent, we would need to reevaluate the situation. In list format: Fire Uragans -- 2 at any aircraft other than H016, up to 4 at any other air targets-- for the next 30-60 second. Fire guns at any targets in range, including H016 if it's not destroyed. Reform the convoy on heading with Ladnyy in front, Stoikiy in back. Circle the Hormone above the convoy at cruise speed until 1730, then land it. Keep radars on for now. Head at convoy speed toward Kuwait City, but stay at least 28 nm from S011 without entering Saudi territorial waters. On the off chance that we cannot stay at least 28 nm from S011, give it the last Moskit. If A014 comes into range, fire 3 Uragans at it, guns if feasible. If other contacts appear, we will reevaluate.

Shouldn't think there'd be any other way to know. But I was planning on firing 2 Uragans at them anyway on the assumption it'd be one more per aircraft at least, so it doesn't change much. May have shot one more than I need.

Ok. We'll leave the orders at 2 more Uragans at A015 1 more Uragan at H016

I've got more RoF available. Think I should throw 5 Uragans at it?

At this point, in this context, I think the cost of replacing missiles is less significant than the cost of taking damage. 2 more Uragans at A015. 1 more Uragan at H016. That's half my Uragans away, and hopefully no more significant air targets.

I mean, I feel a little bad that you haven't had the chance to shoot anything down. So I'm fine with whatever approach you want to take on either staying with the merchants or pulling up closer. I agree that I suspect the incoming flight is probably the last threat.

OK, so that's 15 total Uragans fired so far, correct? Incidentally, did any of the incoming missiles get taken out close enough to damage Stoykiy? The helo is slow. Let's prioritize hitting the F4-Es. So orders: Launch 4 more Uragans at A015 ASAP. Launch 2 Uragans at H016 simultaneously or as shortly thereafter as possible.

Well hell. I think I misread SimPlot earlier. Yeah, your math adds up. That's twice as many incoming missiles as I anticipated, and four times as many as I'd hoped for based on my earlier misreading. Given that wrinkle, one per missile to the limit of 6 works out. However, my quick math suggests the incoming missiles won't reach me for 1.5 more minutes, roughly. Since I think the RoF is a per-minute RoF, does that give me time to get more Uragans up to deal with remaining missiles? If so, I'd like to put one more Uragan on each surviving missile ASAP. Also, since I think this is the extent of the surface targets we'll be dealing with, I'd like to put 2 more Moskits onto S011 ASAP. The prior launch would have to have come from the port launcher, so I should still have some RoF left on the starboard launcher where the current missiles would come from. So orders: If my calculation is correct, I should have time to get one more set of Uragans up against surviving incoming missiles-- 1 per incoming missile-- prior to the missiles reaching my position. That is my intention. I want to launch 2 more Moskits at S011, these coming from the now-in-arc starboard launcher, ASAP. (By my count, that will be a total of 5 missiles launched at S011, one of which has already been resolved; total launches from port launcher are 3, total from starboard launcher would then be all 4). I still intend to fire on incoming missiles with guns, and on incoming air targets with Uragans and guns, as they come into range. To that end, assuming there's Uragan capacity left after assigning one more Uragan from the next salvo to each surviving incoming missile, I'd like to direct all remaining Uragans from that salvo's RoF at H016 which I believe is now in range.

Understood. I've made an effort, spottily, to try and separate and summarize orders. I shall put effort into being more diligent about it. As things stand, I believe a summary of the active orders (some already in process): Increase to 15 kts and come to 315T Launch 2 Moskits at S011 ASAP Launch Uragans at incoming missiles ASAP, at least 1 per missile, preferably 2 per missile if I can manage it. Fire all in arc guns at surviving missiles that come in range. Use decoys and jammers. In the unlikely event missiles bypass me, continue to fire guns. Launch 2 Uragans and fire all guns at every other air unit that comes in range. Send the Hormone 15 nm at FMP at 225T

Ah, that's a rule I hadn't noticed. Well, let's put the Uragans up ASAP. Thank you for bringing that to my attention. Let's accelerate to 15 kts.

OK, the Combattantes should be moot. S011 probably just got lucky, though I cannot rule out other possibilities. So instead of one additional Moskit launched against S011, I want to launch 2 more Moskits against that target, ideally before Harpoon impact (was I not able to get one up in the first fire phases of 1606.5 or 1607?-- even if not, I should have sufficient time, I think, with RoF, to get 2 off before impact), while otherwise sticking with my plan to wheel to 315T and launch Uragans at Harpoons when they come in range at 13.5 nm-- at least 1 per Harpoon, if I can get the aft launcher in arc, preferably 2 per Harpoon. I'll also fire the AK-130 and the AK-630 at any missiles that get close enough, and of course use my jammers and decoys. I intend to launch Uragans at H016 and/or A015 when they come to 13.5 nm as well, if RoF will allow it at that time, and I'll shoot at them with the AK-130 (and, if they get close enough, the AK-630 as well) if they come to those ranges.. A015 can be classified as a hostile F4-E, incidentally.

Nothing to worry about; no harm done.

I'll summarize my concern for posterity and future consideration. However, the subsequent paragraph thereafter addresses my most important response to the immediate situation and current game. I know of the rule that you are talking about. My major issue with that quirk in this context is that I suspect it's not going to end up applying to the incoming missiles because of the transition to engagement turns. I have stopped short of considering the rule in question erroneous, not least because it does not show up in the errata, but primarily because I had taken it to be the acceptably and consciously unrealistic compromise to a situation in which there was rigorous turn-by-turn live play and one side decided it was imperative to make a snap decision to fire reactively during tactical turns without requesting a transition to engagement turns first, with the conscious choice to do so despite the implications from a rules standpoint. In a more free-form situation, particularly in the context of non-spontaneous planned fire, I had anticipated a transition to engagement turns around the time the fire conditions were met, with missile fire taking place in the first-fire phase of the corresponding engagement turn. Most importantly in the short term, I recognize that I neither clarified nor stated these assumptions, nor did I recognize and address the fact that we were not in engagement turns during the 1603 post (when it might have been easier to have done something about it), so I accept responsibility for this issue. Any discrepancy in signature sizes (if there was one) is also relatively irrelevant. Had I a reason to expect we were facing Combattantes (if, in fact, they are), I likely would have fired immediately, rather than at 30 nm. However this would only have added a couple of additional miles to the engagement range, of little importance at missile speed. I do not think Ladnyy it's going to be able to get into a position to effectively help me defend against the Harpoons (certainly feel free to correct me on this if you disagree), so, with Harpoons in the air, what is done is done. I recommend staying with the merchants. I would send the Hormone at FMP, for a distance of 15 nm, at 225T (I believe the enemy ships will still be in radar range). To be explicit, my intention is to launch the second Moskit at S011, and all Uragans and future missiles, during engagement turn fire phases. On the off chance that we have transitioned back to tactical turns at some point, my intention is to transition to engagement turns prior to launch. This is a standing intention. Several edits were used to fix voice-to-text and other typos.

Hmm. This is a situation that I find myself unable to analyze. The only missile I know of that Red could field that matches the data (range of launch, speed of missile) is a Harpoon (if the Moskits were the target, SM1MRs would be in range, but the speed doesn't work, and I don't think SM1MRs can target surface-skimming Moskits; Sea Cats can but the range is much too far; and all non-missile targets are out of range for everything I can come up with except a Harpoon), and the only platform I know of wielding Harpoons is the Combattante IIB (assuming they still had Harpoons left at this date). But I would have expected S010 and S012 to have registered as VSmall rather than Small if they were Combattantes. So I'm at a bit of a loss there. Also, I guess it's my turn to double-check the time stamp on the turn: I would have thought the Moskits would have closed the gap in a little over a minute, but it appears they've managed about a quarter of the distance in 3 minutes? Anyway, as soon as I can based on range factors (13.5 nm against air targets, I think), I want Uragans in flight against the incoming presumptive Harpoons, an Uragan each (M021 first, then M022) with a tentative plan to launch the third Uragan I think I can get in flight before impact at M021 unless it's evident it has been taken down prior to the third launch, backed up by AK-130 and AK-630 fires (though neither has anything better than the min 1% hit chance as near as I can tell) and 3rd gen jammers and decoys. If it becomes evident another platform is the target, and assuming surviving missiles enter arc for further fires, I'd be inclined to look at that option. Also, with an eye to the earlier point regarding "use it or lose it," seeing as I might be suffering some injury in the relatively near future, I'll launch a second Moskit at S011. If S010 and S012 are Combattantes, one Moskit'll do, and they should have little chance to stop the Moskit; assuming S011 is a Babr, it could use a second Moskit more than I need one sitting in a possibly-disabled launcher. I guess one or more F4-Es are back en route. Triangulation suggests about 50 nm, so we have about 3 minutes before it/they arrive, probably. After I launch the second Moskit at S011, I want to come to 315T to get my other Uragan launcher a better arc; if this maneuever gets the aft launcher in arc in time to bear on the incoming Harpoons, I'd probably be inclined to put one more Uragan on each of them. EDIT: Actually, no probably about it. If the rear Uragan can get in arc in time, one more Uragan on each Harpoon for sure.

Ah, no. I guess that was temporally and recipiently (?) ambiguous. I meant (and probably should have said so explicitly) that to be addressed to kmart and in the longer term.

Yeah Ladnyy is still too far from the enemies to add fire, and probably needs to come further to 315-ish. I assume the missile at S011 came from the PB launcher, the ones at the other two ships came from the SB launcher? In roughly 1.5 to 3 minutes, I am considering firing a second set of missiles at these targets, but would be inclined to reevaluate the situation before deciding definitively.

I am going to drop to 2 kts and come to 0000T, and I think Ladnyy is staying on heading but speeding up-- I'll leave specifics to her captain.

So, further orders I'd put for consideration: Closing much nearer to them does us little good. I recommend having the merchants turn (individually) to something like 240T and move the whole echelon in that direction at current speed (being unarmed merchants, it shouldn't be as much of an issue if they find themselves a bit into territorial waters, though I don't think were that close. Meanwhile, I'd suggest I slow or stop, and you put on speed briefly to get a bit closer to facilitate the 28 nm range on your weapons. Each enemy ship gets a Moskit launched at it when it hits 30 nm. Even if 2 Moskits hit one of the paired ships, it's not overkill-- only 3 or more would potentially be. So although any second Moskit launch at any given ship would be something I would want to undertake no more than a minute or so later, it'd be reasonable to look for any effect from the first launch before launching a second or further missile at any target. After the fourth Moskit is launched from starboard, my intent would be to come around to something like 90T asap to bring the port missiles to bear. After the first, 30 nm, Moskit volley at each ship we'd be in a better position to figure out how best to assign Silex fires, which we would want to look at before launching second Moskits generally. We can reconnect with the merchants and get back on course thereafter.

OK, 3 Small signatures. Presume hostile based on heading. Two at 25 kts, one at 30 kts. Not much help there, though we can disregard the ex-US-PF103-- it cannot get to either of those speeds. The Arya Sahands and Hengams and a surfaced Taregh are out for the same reason (I just realized that I do not know if subs were even an option on offer to Red...I'm tempted to activate sonar just to be safe, as I can't see that it's likely to hurt us any). That leaves, I believe, Babr, Palang, Damavand, and one or more Saams as options. I still think the helo is off an ex-Sumner, so I suspect at least one of those is Babr or Palang, Were it me choosing, at least one of the others would be a Saam. So Saams can do undesirable harm at 13.5 nm, and it gets worse at 12 nm. The threat from Babr or Palang or Damavand is 25 nm, and though the actual damage potential is lower, it doesn't take much at all to keep us from decisive victory. I've got 8 Moskits, 4 in arc on at least some (I think all) of the enemy ships, and well within range. One hit is pretty brutal on any of the possible targets, two is fairly devastating, though there's a chance Damavand could weather it better. Only the Saams have much in the way of defenses against the Moskits, though anyone could get lucky. Though they'll need their radars on first to be much of a threat, I don't really want to have them within 25 nm and suddenly radars are going active and SM1MRs are flying. I'm thinking the 25 nm perimeter is not quite satisfactory at this point. So I see four main ways forward: 1) Declare these ships hostile based on small irritations (including a presumed enemy helicopter within our previously declared 25 nm limit) up to this point, and attack them now from safety 2) Request ID and warn these ships with a longer perimeter, such as 30 nm, and then proceed with considering them hostile when they breach that, attacking still from pretty solid safety 3) Request ID and warn using the previously declared 25 nm perimeter, consider hostile when they breach that albeit at some risk of incoming missiles. 4) Perhaps maintain the request for 25 nm but hold off on firing until something more definitively hostile and/or identifying happens-- activated radars, launched missiles, whatever. Best defense in front of the international community, but greatest risk to ourselves and our victory conditions. I don't like 4, not least because it doesn't even cleave to our own intent. We were perfectly willing to fire on the helo before it could take definitively hostile action; what we are seeing now is a much bigger, much clearer threat in my opinion. And as I stated above, I don't love option 3-- it's only real benefit is we remain consistent with what we have publicly stated previously, which is a relatively small benefit compared to the risks. I guess I favor 2. I think we are at least as justified at choosing 1 as we would be at choosing 2, but I think 2 cleaves better to what might be expected of us in terms of at least attempting to be reasonably sure of our target and their intentions before hitting them, and based on RoF data and max speeds, if I fire at 30 nm I should be able to get most or all the Moskits away before they even close to 25 nm. So, if you're in agreement, in summary: Label the ships as Red. Request the ships ID themselves and demand they approach no closer than 31 nm or be considered hostile. Make sure the FC for Moskit is in surface mode, everything else in air mode, for now. Use active sonar for a bit (unless the Tareghs were not an option for Red and we are meant to know that) just to be safe. Plan to fire at the ships at 30 nm and/or the helo at 5.5 nm.

No problem

That's a good point. Let's put the Hormone up to Medium altitude, radar on, basically circling just above the convoy but no farther forward than Stoykiy's position so as to still be protected by my range. If and when the incoming helo situation is handled we might get a bit more adventurous. We should have a few hours endurance, so barring other changes, we will re-evaluate the flight plan in, say, 2 hours.

Why not? We won't say anything to him until he gets to, let's say, 12 nm, then he gets the standard warnings about hostile actions and responses. If he comes to 5 nm, he gets shot at.