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Thinking about hit probability is for me like walking in a mine field. Once you get down to those low Ph No matter how many sticks you throw it is unlikely to do any good. If you think two missile with Ph of 50%, you don't have a 100% prob of hit. From memory the correct calculatin is to work out the prob of a miss for each then calculate as exponential of the number of missile to get the prob of all missing, then the flip of that is the prob of a hit. Thus for a 50% Ph and 2 missile the prob of all missing is .5 x .5 = .25, meaning 75% prob of a hit? But I can easy be wrong as it a little while since I did this math.