Raw Intel

Hey ... via the latest issue of Proceedings, this should ring a bell on the Front Porch; The Littoral Combat Ship is overpriced and underperforming, yet the Navy continues to support it. It’s time to abandon the LCS and replace it with a comparable vessel that costs the same, but is far more capable. There are several great candidates in other navies, but one we might consider is the Danish-built Iver Huitfeldt –class frigate. Welcome aboard for Plan Salamander since ~ 2005, though we have often offered up from the Swedish VISBY, Norwegian NANSEN, Dutch SEVEN PROVINCES, or the other Danish ship ABSALON - anything but the Little Crappy Ship ... but IVER HUITFELT i…

For a certain generation of officers, your host included, there was one foundation event for many of all designators that shaped the way they looked at leadership - both uniformed and civilian - for their entire career. They learned early that bravery in combat and cowardice in life are not mutually exclusive of each other, and can easily inhabit the same person. They learned that facts were of little importance in the face of a politically driven head wind. They learned that when the going gets tough - the top cover they hoped their senior leadership would provide for them - would fade as fast as the Romanian Army at Stalingrad. They learned not to trust - they lear…

Non-state or quasi-non-state actors preying on commerce for profit. They steal, hold hostages, and some times engage in extortion where if you don’t pay them off, they will break your stuff. The news of the last 48-hrs about DarkSide and the pipeline held hostage is just another chapter in a long story; The ransomware group linked to the extortion attempt that has snared fuel deliveries across the U.S. East Coast may be new, but that doesn’t mean its hackers are amateurs. Who precisely is behind the disruptive intrusion into Colonial Pipeline hasn’t been made officially known and digital attribution can be tricky, especially early on in an investigation. A former U.…

Well, there it is. Over at Politico we have an open letter calling for a limited no-fly zone. This letter is signed by people who should know better. I would put the substance somewhere in the wtf grid bounded by "irresponsible" & "insulting." Too many people have misremembered both recent and longer-term history. We are talking about Russia here. Not Serbia. Not Libya. Not Iraq. Let us be clear on this point; a No Fly Zone (NFZ) requires you shoot down aircraft over a specified area. Over Ukraine, what this letter calls for is for us to shoot down Russian aircraft. It says “NATO” but as anyone who served in Afghanistan knows, this will mean the USA, and possibly the…

Are you reading Norman Polmar's posts over at navyhistory.org blog? Well shame on you if you aren't classics like this; After dozens of letters and many hundreds of manuscript pages exchanged between us, we finally met in March 1969 when Genda visited the United States. He was invited to the United States in part to participate in the Naval Institute’s distinguished visitor program. (I had been assistant editor of the Naval Institute Proceedings from 1963 to 1967.) During his visit Genda spoke at the Naval Academy to an audience of Naval Academy midshipmen and faculty, and area USNI members. When asked if the Japanese had possessed the atomic bomb, did he …

There are those who study history and watch the present to look for the best path in to the future. There are those who are willfully ignorant of history, are not interested in the greater world around them, and instead like to focus on their own ideology and pedantic habits. In the late '70s the UK got rid of its strike carrier capability and just barely survived with their CVS and Harriers since ... until recently when the RAF and their easily debunked theories manages to get rid of the Harrier for good and the silly ships that carried them. Ahem. DEFENCE Secretary Liam Fox is expected to come under heavy pressure to reverse large parts of the government'…

To build the Navy we need, the one thing we have to get right is - and this seems obvious - to successfully build ships. A lot of them. Easy to type, hard to do. While we have had many well-documented troubles this century, we also have some notable successes that give hope we can do it right when we want to. Returning today with another top-shelf guest post, Bryan McGrath picks up the conversation with a reminder of what we did get right, and what we need to do with that institutional capital. Bryan, over to you. When a “Murderers Row” of Navalists (Hendrix, Salamander, Work) all take to the interwebs within the same week to opine on the recent pathologies of American n…

I don't know more than anyone else here, but I think that some are getting a little too excited over what happened with the USS CHANCELLORSVILLE (CG-62). Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar; a training incident is a training incident. Most you need to know will come out in the investigation - but for those who need a refresher; An aerial target drone malfunctioned and struck guided missile cruiser USS Chancellorsville (CG 62) off the coast of Southern California at approximately 1:25 pm local time today, Nov. 16, while the ship was conducting a radar tracking exercise during routine training at sea. Our friend Galrahn over at ID really got a bone in his teeth on the inc…

Via The Economist; read all the way to the bottom. When you think about it - their population is 4x ours and their economy has been growing 2-3+ more than ours for over a decade; is was only a matter of time barring a bad black swan. Not all is smooth sailing for China; but 2025 is not that far down the road. Ponder. View the full article

With all its inefficiencies, bloat, and error; with all its problematic revolving door issues between government/military and civilian sectors – there is no greater existential requirement for a mature nation than to have its own military-industrial sector. In peace it is easy to forget that in times of war – times that will always come with our warlike species – the vanities of peace can soon become a bleeding ulcer at war. While small nations simply cannot sustain the full spectrum of military equipment due to overhead and development costs, medium to large nations have options. You may on occasion have to partner with friendly nations, but what strings come with those …

Here is a title that isn't shocking to anyone on the front porch; U.S. Navy Officials Suppressed Bad LCS-1 Test Results Mike Faybey's article at AviationLeak is worth a full read, so is POGO's say about it. Nothing really shocking in some respects, especially the testing information - but what is more interesting is what this tells us about the culture. There are two things that I think are the most important in the article. They are things that perhaps the general public does not fully get a grasp of, and sadly those inside the lifelines know so well that they are an accepted part of the atmosphere. First, like we discussed with Chris Cavas on Midrats last…

Want to see the next bubble? Over at FT, they have it for you - if you want to see it (click image for larger). According to the report , between 1990 and 2006 — the year in which issuance of Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) peaked — assets with the highest credit rating rose from a little over 20 per cent of total rated fixed-income issues to almost 55 per cent . Think about it. More than half of the world’s debt securities were, for all intents and purposes, considered risk-free . In 2006, that was nearly $5,000bn of assets. The financial crisis had a lot to do with triple-A ratings being slapped on to subprime securities which didn’t warrant t…

OK all you history buffs, all you former and active Harpoon players - all those who love their Navy and a good video game at the same time. Think about what, in even a modest manner, you would like to see for the official US Navy's first mobile gaming product. Let that warm and excited feeling soak in for a bit. Now, brace yourselves and head on over to my post at USNIBlog for the details. Gird your loins. As a side note, if you read this blog and are not also a member of the US Naval Institute, you should really consider joining. Look on the right side of the page for the widget, give it a click and find a few shekels. View the full article

What is the view of the medium term future for the Navy? Join EagleOne and me on Sunday 14 NOV starting at 5pm EST as we discuss the way forward for the Navy in the coming decade with John Patch, CDR USN (Ret.), Associate Professor of Strategic Intelligence at the U.S. Army War College's Center for Strategic Leadership. We will touch on Counter-piracy vs. Antipiracy, the relevance of the Carrier, the Littoral Combat Ship, Naval Surface Fire Support, the relevance of Amphibious capability, and other topics that may come up. Join us live if you can, and pile in with the usual suspects in the chat room during the show where you can offer your own questions and …

The Russian supercavitating torpedo, the Shkval, has been with us for decades. Partly because it has not been used in combat and partially because we just don't think it is all that much of a threat because of our own biases and understanding of the technology, we have not given it all that much thought. We are very focused on defending against threats from the air, A2AD and all that jazz, and for those below, we have nifty little countermeasures and anti-torpedo defenses we are trying out - but those are focused on what we know and am comfortable with - traditional torpedoes. Via The Economist, I'm not quite sure we are that ready for this; WHEN introduced 40 years…

Thinking and planning are easy. Words can have flexible meaning and an artful planner can devise all sorts of trap doors, detours, and branches to allow their ideas a certain degree of flexibility. Math, however, is hard. Budgets are even harder. They are math with personality. We have reviewed the challenges of what we’ve come to call “The Terrible 20s” for over a decade. Now that we find ourselves here, what does this upcoming decade hold now that we no longer see the 20s dimly through the haze, but can see its details in sharp relief? The first step in solving a problem is to admit it. That is easy for individuals as it only takes one entity to take the step – it is…

The fact that operating fixed wing aircraft has a long and bloody learning curve is no news to readers here - but this stuff coming out of Chinese state media is interesting. Via our friend Wendell Minnick over at DefenseNews; In an unusual departure for mainland Chinese-language media, the Beijing-based Sina Military Network (SMN) criticized the capabilities of the carrier-borne J-15 Flying Shark as nothing more than a “flopping fish.†... What sounded more like a rant than analysis, SMN, on Sept. 23, reported the new J-15 was incapable of flying from the Liaoning with heavy weapons, “effectively crippling its attack range and firepower.†The fighter can take…

The Afghan army and government the Soviet Union left behind lasted over 3-yrs. The Afghan army and government the USA left behind lasted barely 1 month. This is a nugget everyone needs to hoist onboard. It is bolded and underlined for a reason. For those in the elder GenX cohort and older, we remember vividly all the comments made, especially after its fall, of the failures of the Soviet Union. We liked to talk about its stifling bureaucracy, oppressive government nomenklatura, busy body rules, crumbling infrastructure, military infested with political officers pushing ideology, corruption, and almost comical government officials - all so assured of their power, such bel…

Why must we continue to remind everyone who will listen of the failures of the Age of Transformationalism™? Simple; we cannot afford another generation of programs lost to arrogance, ignorance, and toxic command climates that leave bad ideas and ahistorical program assumptions go unchallenged. Futurism, offset promises, overmatch assumptions, risk devaluation, divest-to-invest – these are all attractive ideas that brief well. They seem to promise to solve so many hard problems. They offer more for less. They seem to allow an easy path; a way to avoid hard work and compromise … and to accrue to their advocates accolades as the “it guy/gal” who has all the vision and provid…

If the name CDR E. A. Westfall, CDR, USCG sounds familiar, then you are a regular listener to Midrats. He joined us back on Episode 26 of Midrats to discuss the nature of Command, and is the Commanding Officer of the USCGC ESCANABA (WMEC 907). Well, our good Skipper has had an interesting day mid-month. From CNN: A U.S. Coast Guard cutter was fired upon by suspected drug traffickers during a pursuit off the coast of Nicaragua, a Coast Guard spokesman told CNN. No Coast Guard personnel were injured in the gunfight, said Lt. Cmdr. Chris O'Neil. The incident took place in the early morning of September 14, but information about the attack was not re…