The Hormone is climbing with its radar on as it circles the convoy. You have several new surface contacts. Also, the Red helo contact has descended to VLow altitude.

 

EDIT: I meant Red helo, not Blue.

turn_1557_blue.txt

turn_1557_blue_intl.txt

OK, 3 Small signatures. Presume hostile based on heading. Two at 25 kts, one at 30 kts. Not much help there, though we can disregard the ex-US-PF103-- it cannot get to either of those speeds. The Arya Sahands and Hengams and a surfaced Taregh are out for the same reason (I just realized that I do not know if subs were even an option on offer to Red...I'm tempted to activate sonar just to be safe, as I can't see that it's likely to hurt us any). That leaves, I believe, Babr, Palang, Damavand, and one or more Saams as options.

 

I still think the helo is off an ex-Sumner, so I suspect at least one of those is Babr or Palang, Were it me choosing, at least one of the others would be a Saam.

 

So Saams can do undesirable harm at 13.5 nm, and it gets worse at 12 nm. The threat from Babr or Palang or Damavand is 25 nm, and though the actual damage potential is lower, it doesn't take much at all to keep us from decisive victory.

I've got 8 Moskits, 4 in arc on at least some (I think all) of the enemy ships, and well within range. One hit is pretty brutal on any of the possible targets, two is fairly devastating, though there's a chance Damavand could weather it better. Only the Saams have much in the way of defenses against the Moskits, though anyone could get lucky.

 

Though they'll need their radars on first to be much of a threat, I don't really want to have them within 25 nm and suddenly radars are going active and SM1MRs are flying. I'm thinking the 25 nm perimeter is not quite satisfactory at this point.

 

So I see four main ways forward:

 

1) Declare these ships hostile based on small irritations (including a presumed enemy helicopter within our previously declared 25 nm limit) up to this point, and attack them now from safety

2) Request ID and warn these ships with a longer perimeter, such as 30 nm, and then proceed with considering them hostile when they breach that, attacking still from pretty solid safety

3) Request ID and warn using the previously declared 25 nm perimeter, consider hostile when they breach that albeit at some risk of incoming missiles.

4) Perhaps maintain the request for 25 nm but hold off on firing until something more definitively hostile and/or identifying happens-- activated radars, launched missiles, whatever. Best defense in front of the international community, but greatest risk to ourselves and our victory conditions.

 

I don't like 4, not least because it doesn't even cleave to our own intent. We were perfectly willing to fire on the helo before it could take definitively hostile action; what we are seeing now is a much bigger, much clearer threat in my opinion. And as I stated above, I don't love option 3-- it's only real benefit is we remain consistent with what we have publicly stated previously, which is a relatively small benefit compared to the risks.

 

I guess I favor 2. I think we are at least as justified at choosing 1 as we would be at choosing 2, but I think 2 cleaves better to what might be expected of us in terms of at least attempting to be reasonably sure of our target and their intentions before hitting them, and based on RoF data and max speeds, if I fire at 30 nm I should be able to get most or all the Moskits away before they even close to 25 nm.

 

So, if you're in agreement, in summary:

 

Label the ships as Red.

Request the ships ID themselves and demand they approach no closer than 31 nm or be considered hostile.

Make sure the FC for Moskit is in surface mode, everything else in air mode, for now.

Use active sonar for a bit (unless the Tareghs were not an option for Red and we are meant to know that) just to be safe.

Plan to fire at the ships at 30 nm and/or the helo at 5.5 nm.

OK, 3 Small signatures. Presume hostile based on heading. Two at 25 kts, one at 30 kts. Not much help there, though we can disregard the ex-US-PF103-- it cannot get to either of those speeds. The Arya Sahands and Hengams and a surfaced Taregh are out for the same reason (I just realized that I do not know if subs were even an option on offer to Red...I'm tempted to activate sonar just to be safe, as I can't see that it's likely to hurt us any). That leaves, I believe, Babr, Palang, Damavand, and one or more Saams as options. I still think the helo is off an ex-Sumner, so I suspect at least one of those is Babr or Palang, Were it me choosing, at least one of the others would be a Saam. So Saams can do undesirable harm at 13.5 nm, and it gets worse at 12 nm. The threat from Babr or Palang or Damavand is 25 nm, and though the actual damage potential is lower, it doesn't take much at all to keep us from decisive victory. I've got 8 Moskits, 4 in arc on at least some (I think all) of the enemy ships, and well within range. One hit is pretty brutal on any of the possible targets, two is fairly devastating, though there's a chance Damavand could weather it better. Only the Saams have much in the way of defenses against the Moskits, though anyone could get lucky. Though they'll need their radars on first to be much of a threat, I don't really want to have them within 25 nm and suddenly radars are going active and SM1MRs are flying. I'm thinking the 25 nm perimeter is not quite satisfactory at this point. So I see four main ways forward:

 

1) Declare these ships hostile based on small irritations (including a presumed enemy helicopter within our previously declared 25 nm limit) up to this point, and attack them now from safety

2) Request ID and warn these ships with a longer perimeter, such as 30 nm, and then proceed with considering them hostile when they breach that, attacking still from pretty solid safety

3) Request ID and warn using the previously declared 25 nm perimeter, consider hostile when they breach that albeit at some risk of incoming missiles.

4) Perhaps maintain the request for 25 nm but hold off on firing until something more definitively hostile and/or identifying happens-- activated radars, launched missiles, whatever. Best defense in front of the international community, but greatest risk to ourselves and our victory conditions.

 

I don't like 4, not least because it doesn't even cleave to our own intent. We were perfectly willing to fire on the helo before it could take definitively hostile action; what we are seeing now is a much bigger, much clearer threat in my opinion. And as I stated above, I don't love option 3-- it's only real benefit is we remain consistent with what we have publicly stated previously, which is a relatively small benefit compared to the risks. I guess I favor 2. I think we are at least as justified at choosing 1 as we would be at choosing 2, but I think 2 cleaves better to what might be expected of us in terms of at least attempting to be reasonably sure of our target and their intentions before hitting them, and based on RoF data and max speeds, if I fire at 30 nm I should be able to get most or all the Moskits away before they even close to 25 nm. So, if you're in agreement, in summary:

 

Label the ships as Red.

Request the ships ID themselves and demand they approach no closer than 31 nm or be considered hostile.

Make sure the FC for Moskit is in surface mode, everything else in air mode, for now.

Use active sonar for a bit (unless the Tareghs were not an option for Red and we are meant to know that) just to be safe.

Plan to fire at the ships at 30 nm and/or the helo at 5.5 nm.

 

Concur. This is their attack run. Considerations to add:

 

1. Moskit is devastating in all respects.

2. We need to avoid the possibility of multiple missiles homing on a single target. You might want to stagger your launches against S010 and S012 to be sure.

3. We could throw SS-N-14 (in ASUW mode) into the mix. Maybe even against S012, and follow up as necessary. (Use em or lose em comes into play.)

Ladnyy shall immediately energize all radars. No illumination of specific targets as yet.

 

Umpire: I have specs for the SS-N-14d Silex as range 2.7 nm (minimum) and 28 nm (maximum), speed 627 knots. Please confirm.

So, further orders I'd put for consideration:

 

Closing much nearer to them does us little good. I recommend having the merchants turn (individually) to something like 240T and move the whole echelon in that direction at current speed (being unarmed merchants, it shouldn't be as much of an issue if they find themselves a bit into territorial waters, though I don't think were that close.

 

Meanwhile, I'd suggest I slow or stop, and you put on speed briefly to get a bit closer to facilitate the 28 nm range on your weapons.

 

Each enemy ship gets a Moskit launched at it when it hits 30 nm. Even if 2 Moskits hit one of the paired ships, it's not overkill-- only 3 or more would potentially be. So although any second Moskit launch at any given ship would be something I would want to undertake no more than a minute or so later, it'd be reasonable to look for any effect from the first launch before launching a second or further missile at any target.

 

After the fourth Moskit is launched from starboard, my intent would be to come around to something like 90T asap to bring the port missiles to bear.

 

After the first, 30 nm, Moskit volley at each ship we'd be in a better position to figure out how best to assign Silex fires, which we would want to look at before launching second Moskits generally.

 

We can reconnect with the merchants and get back on course thereafter.

So, further orders I'd put for consideration: Closing much nearer to them does us little good. I recommend having the merchants turn (individually) to something like 240T and move the whole echelon in that direction at current speed (being unarmed merchants, it shouldn't be as much of an issue if they find themselves a bit into territorial waters, though I don't think were that close. Meanwhile, I'd suggest I slow or stop, and you put on speed briefly to get a bit closer to facilitate the 28 nm range on your weapons. Each enemy ship gets a Moskit launched at it when it hits 30 nm. Even if 2 Moskits hit one of the paired ships, it's not overkill-- only 3 or more would potentially be. So although any second Moskit launch at any given ship would be something I would want to undertake no more than a minute or so later, it'd be reasonable to look for any effect from the first launch before launching a second or further missile at any target. After the fourth Moskit is launched from starboard, my intent would be to come around to something like 90T asap to bring the port missiles to bear. After the first, 30 nm, Moskit volley at each ship we'd be in a better position to figure out how best to assign Silex fires, which we would want to look at before launching second Moskits generally. We can reconnect with the merchants and get back on course thereafter.

 

Completely agree with the closing distance issue. My only concern with separation between us and the merchies is the danger of a returning F-4E, in which case that separation could potentially be exploited.

 

If you turn to face the threat, the merchies turn as proposed, and I continue more or less on course but speed up somewhat, we can maintain some close defence for the merchies while creating a layered effect for our area defences.

 

The SS-N-14d can be used for follow up shots, as necessary, as proposed.

Your data for the SS-N-14d is accurate. Also, please note it has a ballistic flight. It fires and flies at Low before going to VLow near the target.

 

So, you guys want the merchants to turn to 240T. I am confused about the warship headings and speed.

Your data for the SS-N-14d is accurate. Also, please note it has a ballistic flight. It fires and flies at Low before going to VLow near the target.

Acknowledged.

 

So, you guys want the merchants to turn to 240T. I am confused about the warship headings and speed.

I don't think we are settled on how exactly we are proceeding, but it is probably a matter of detail. Stand by.

I am going to drop to 2 kts and come to 0000T, and I think Ladnyy is staying on heading but speeding up-- I'll leave specifics to her captain.

Ladnyy is increasing speed to 19 kt (this will likely be a short dash) and turning slightly to 275 deg.

 

The intention is to avoid masking both SA-N-4b launchers to the direction of the threat, for close defence of the merchants, while still maintaining readiness for rapid SS-N-14d launch if necessary.