Blue players can discuss your initial formation, intentions, and tactics here. Please keep in mind your primary objective is the safe arrival of the merchants at Kuwait. They are loaded with war material for our Iraqi allies.

Though I am not sure what ship options are available to the Red side, looking briefly at the Annexes for appropriate platforms that I know of, I am not tremendously impressed with their destroyer choices (unless I'm missing something). The Vosper Mk5's are decent, though, and the Combattante IIB, though a bit of a one-shot glass cannon, represents a credible threat at range. Leaving aside the Combattante's Harpoons, though, it looks like there's a roughly 20 nm threat window for some damage among the various platforms, with the Sea Killer II's on the Vosper Mk5 offering some of the best threat at range. The Red airpower is a bit of a wild card, though.

 

Red has a better idea of where we are starting from, where we are going, and we tend to represent a cluster of 5 relatively slow moving targets. In this context, Red may prefer to approach under stricter EmCon than I used during the last scenario; on a similar token (again, unless there's something I am failing to consider), I'm not really sold on the benefit of strict EmCon for convoy escorts, at least ones in a position where so many variable are already known to the opponent. I wonder if we don't lose relatively little (giving away a probably already-pretty-easy-to-guess location) for a pretty significant gain (the earlier, and farther away, we detect the Red ships, the better position we find ourselves in to respond).

 

That does touch on something else, though: when I was the aggressor, my orders-- explicit and implicit-- were straightforward: engage the convoy and its escort, sink the merchant, damage the warship. It was up to me to implement it, but it was unambiguous. Looking at it from this side, though, some of our objectives are clear: get to the target (looks like that'll probably take roughly 18 hours, give or take, at top convoy speed), don't let the merchants get hurt, try not to get too hurt ourselves. Some are less clear: "respond resolutely to any hostile action." From a purely game-outcomes-based perspective, we would be best served by identifying and then immediately firing upon the Red warships with intent to disable; and I know I argued in favor of just such an approach during the last scenario, but in hindsight it is apparent to me that I felt able to do so precisely because the aggressor's role was clearly stated-- to ignore, for example, potential political ramifications was easy because nothing implying one should consider the political ramifications was in evidence as part of the scenario. Here, though, the order is to respond to hostility-- and barring something self-evident, such as being fired upon or targeted with fire control radar, I find myself reluctant to disregard this element as, in this case, it IS part of the scenario. Regardless of how that is approached, though, I still find it likely that detecting the Red ships as early as possible remains useful enough to potentially warrant being willing to give away our position.

 

Related to that is the Hormone B. Useful for helping to locate the Red ships; when it comes time to fire on them, useful for OTH targeting, though depending on how we interpret hostility, that may or may not be as valuable. Potentially useful to simultaneously accomplish locating Red warships while avoiding giving away our position, if we fly it away from us and let it broadcast instead. I worry a bit about that, though, if only because it may reduce out ability to detect air targets in time to effectively respond to them.

 

I have also briefly mulled over the idea of separating off one escort to operate independently either to draw away Red ships (quite probably doable, but at a good chance that we lock ourselves into a draw at best by getting the decoy severely damaged or sunk) or else to attack them from an unexpected angle (not very realistic when we don't know where they are, and even if we did, if we're not pursuing the attack). So, I considered it, but I'm far from convinced it's worth pursuing-- though if we do pursue it, I can really only see it being effective as a decoy maneuver (and another problem I see with that is that if the decoy fails to sufficiently harm the Red ships, the convoy is slow enough that it's likely they'll just catch back up again, now against fewer escorts...so, I suppose if we're going that route, it only makes sense for the decoy to be Stoykiy.

 

So, all that having been said, and with the further caveat that I'm just thinking out loud (so to speak) right now, I guess for the moment I favor the idea of keeping the escorts together, moving at convoy speed toward Kuwait, maybe having Ladnyy broadcasting and send the Hormone off in a different direction, broadcasting. In so doing, we afford ourselves a good chance of detecting either Red ships (with the additional help of the Hormone), detecting and responding to incoming aircraft and/or missiles, or both, and if we are really lucky they either pick up the Hormone's emissions but not Ladnyy's or else think the Hormone is traveling with Stoykiy splitting off and move to intercept a ship that is not there, all only at the cost of potentially giving away our true position (which might have already been guessable anyway).

 

Okay, there. My initial thoughts, in a sort of stream of consciousness, unfortunately. I'll keep thinking about it, and will check back in to see what your thoughts are.

Though I am not sure what ship options are available to the Red side, looking briefly at the Annexes for appropriate platforms that I know of, I am not tremendously impressed with their destroyer choices (unless I'm missing something). The Vosper Mk5's are decent, though, and the Combattante IIB, though a bit of a one-shot glass cannon, represents a credible threat at range. Leaving aside the Combattante's Harpoons, though, it looks like there's a roughly 20 nm threat window for some damage among the various platforms, with the Sea Killer II's on the Vosper Mk5 offering some of the best threat at range. The Red airpower is a bit of a wild card, though.

 

The Combattante IIB fast attack craft are the only surface threat that would worry me. Are they even available to Red? The Babr (ex US Allen M. Sumner FRAM II class), Damavand (ex UK Battle) DD and Sahand (Vosper Mk5 class) FF options meanwhile would all require Red to close the distance to relatively close range to use their missiles (whether SM-1MR Block II in SSM mode or the Sea Killer II). The RGM-84A Harpoon is obviously much more capable, though the warload aboard the Combattante IIB should be less than a full loadout (2x2).

 

The possibility of Red airpower is absolutely a wild card, one that would significantly improve Red's odds. I would hope that they have limited sorties.

 

Red has a better idea of where we are starting from, where we are going, and we tend to represent a cluster of 5 relatively slow moving targets. In this context, Red may prefer to approach under stricter EmCon than I used during the last scenario; on a similar token (again, unless there's something I am failing to consider), I'm not really sold on the benefit of strict EmCon for convoy escorts, at least ones in a position where so many variable are already known to the opponent. I wonder if we don't lose relatively little (giving away a probably already-pretty-easy-to-guess location) for a pretty significant gain (the earlier, and farther away, we detect the Red ships, the better position we find ourselves in to respond).

 

I think you're right about that. Red may desire strict EMCON, especially as their offensive firepower is short range and/or limited and their defensive firepower is nearly non-existent. EMCON is not nearly as valuable for us, as our strengths lie with firepower and a need to stay vigilant (especially under a stricter ROE). I think we might be able to exploit the Ka-25Ts Hormone B in this regard. More on that below.

 

That does touch on something else, though: when I was the aggressor, my orders-- explicit and implicit-- were straightforward: engage the convoy and its escort, sink the merchant, damage the warship. It was up to me to implement it, but it was unambiguous. Looking at it from this side, though, some of our objectives are clear: get to the target (looks like that'll probably take roughly 18 hours, give or take, at top convoy speed), don't let the merchants get hurt, try not to get too hurt ourselves. Some are less clear: "respond resolutely to any hostile action." From a purely game-outcomes-based perspective, we would be best served by identifying and then immediately firing upon the Red warships with intent to disable; and I know I argued in favor of just such an approach during the last scenario, but in hindsight it is apparent to me that I felt able to do so precisely because the aggressor's role was clearly stated-- to ignore, for example, potential political ramifications was easy because nothing implying one should consider the political ramifications was in evidence as part of

the scenario. Here, though, the order is to respond to hostility-- and barring something self-evident, such as being fired upon or targeted with fire control radar, I find myself reluctant to disregard this element as, in this case, it IS part of the scenario. Regardless of how that is approached, though, I still find it likely that detecting the Red ships as early as possible remains useful enough to potentially warrant being willing to give away our position.

 

The ROE is (as always) somewhat critical. I interpret the orders as follows: Weapons tight, do not fire without evidence of hostile intent. That does not necessarily mean we have to wait until we are fired upon. Just that there must be some evidence of hostile intent, e.g. refusing to turn away from approaching the Blue convoy upon demand. The umpire may have some further direction in this regard.

 

I also agree that detection of the Red ships at the earliest possible opportunity is very important. This is where I think the Hormone B can offer its best value. See my comments below.

 

Related to that is the Hormone B. Useful for helping to locate the Red ships; when it comes time to fire on them, useful for OTH targeting, though depending on how we interpret hostility, that may or may not be as valuable. Potentially useful to simultaneously accomplish locating Red warships while avoiding giving away our position, if we fly it away from us and let it broadcast instead. I worry a bit about that, though, if only because it may reduce out ability to detect air targets in time to effectively respond to them.

 

Here's an idea: assuming at game start we do not have a decent idea of the location of the Red ships, we launch the Hormone B at the earliest opportunity. Keeping it at Vlow altitude until we attain distance/bearing change from the Blue convoy, and then climbing to altitude to perform a radar search. The Hormone B will be vulnerable to any Red air but it will have performed its job and its loss does not compromise victory conditions.

 

Note that the Uspekh-2 (NATO Big Bulge B ) radar aboard the Hormone B is surface search (SS) only (60 deg search azimuth, range 89 nm vs Small targets) and won't provide any detection capability against Red air unless they are at Vlow altitude.

 

I have also briefly mulled over the idea of separating off one escort to operate independently either to draw away Red ships (quite probably doable, but at a good chance that we lock ourselves into a draw at best by getting the decoy severely damaged or sunk) or else to attack them from an unexpected angle (not very realistic when we don't know where they are, and even if we did, if we're not pursuing the attack). So, I considered it, but I'm far from convinced it's worth pursuing-- though if we do pursue it, I can really only see it being effective as a decoy maneuver (and another problem I see with that is that if the decoy fails to sufficiently harm the Red ships, the convoy is slow enough that it's likely they'll just catch back up again, now against fewer escorts...so, I suppose if we're going that route, it only makes sense for the decoy to be Stoykiy.

 

I am not keen on the idea of splitting up our ships. I think our strengths lie in the strong, layered defensive firepower we have as a group.

 

So, all that having been said, and with the further caveat that I'm just thinking out loud (so to speak) right now, I guess for the moment I favor the idea of keeping the escorts together, moving at convoy speed toward Kuwait, maybe having Ladnyy broadcasting and send the Hormone off in a different direction, broadcasting. In so doing, we afford ourselves a good chance of detecting either Red ships (with the additional help of the Hormone), detecting and responding to incoming aircraft and/or missiles, or both, and if we are really lucky they either pick up the Hormone's emissions but not Ladnyy's or else think the Hormone is traveling with Stoykiy splitting off and move to intercept a ship that is not there, all only at the cost of potentially giving away our true position (which might have already been guessable anyway).

 

I think we are largely on the same page. I favour keeping the convoy together (playing to our strengths, making the convoy a difficult nut to crack), maintaining EMCON until we can loft the Hormone B and take a peek. Red air remains a wild card that we cannot prepare for, except to position our escorts to maximize defensive firepower. If Red air isn't airborne already, we will at least have some period of time to work with.

 

Okay, there. My initial thoughts, in a sort of stream of consciousness, unfortunately. I'll keep thinking about it, and will check back in to see what your thoughts are.

Sounds good to me. So put the merchants in line, 1 nm apart, slowest in front and fastest in back, with warships one near the front and to port, the other near the rear and to starboard of the line, 1 nm out from the merchants? Heading toward Kuwait and moving at 16 kts?

Sounds good to me. So put the merchants in line, 1 nm apart, slowest in front and fastest in back, with warships one near the front and to port, the other near the rear and to starboard of the line, 1 nm out from the merchants? Heading toward Kuwait and moving at 16 kts?

 

I like it. Although do we need to worry much about the western side of the Gulf? Given that Red air/ship threats will almost certainly come from the east? A thought.

 

Our column formation will cause Red ships difficulty in being unable to distinguish followers from leaders in targeting, and will cause Red air difficulty in being unable to attack more than one ship at a time (unless they fly directly down the line, and into the teeth of the leading or trailing warship).

 

I think Stoykiy should lead, btw. It has the most powerful combo of air and surface firepower.

Good point.

 

So if I have my geography correct, we are moving to the northwest (call it 315T?) so both warships to the starboard side, Stoykiy forward and Ladnyy rear, 1 nm spacing, speed 16 kts; merchants in line, Maykop followed by Zhukov followed by Dnepr.

Good point. So if I have my geography correct, we are moving to the northwest (call it 315T?) so both warships to the starboard side, Stoykiy forward and Ladnyy rear, 1 nm spacing, speed 16 kts; merchants in line, Maykop followed by Zhukov followed by Dnepr.

 

Sounds good to me.

 

Thinking out loud, should we angle towards the Bahraini/Saudi coast and skirt their territorial waters during our transit? This might serve to complicate Iranian action.

Will your formation look something like this?

 

Merch - O O - Sov

Merch - O

Merch - O O - Kriv

Will your formation look something like this?

 

Merch - O O - Sov

Merch - O

Merch - O O - Kriv

 

Yes, I think that is more or less what we have in mind. Though perhaps with the Sovremennyy slightly ahead and to starboard of the lead merchant, and with the Krivak I slightly trailing and to starboard of the final merchant.

I agree with Stoykiy being slightly ahead and Ladnyy being slightly behind, yes.

 

I don't think there's any downside to trying to skirt territorial waters-- worst case scenario, it does nothing for us-- but I worry about the time spent in a straight 270T run to get there (we're starting 100 nm and they claim 12 nm, I think, so 5.5 hours?). So, maybe 290T until we come close to the territorial waters, then turn more northerly?

I don't think there's any downside to trying to skirt territorial waters-- worst case scenario, it does nothing for us-- but I worry about the time spent in a straight 270T run to get there (we're starting 100 nm and they claim 12 nm, I think, so 5.5 hours?). So, maybe 290T until we come close to the territorial waters, then turn more northerly?

 

Oh yes, I wasn't advocating that we turn hard left and make for the coast, but rather than plod straight up the middle of the Gulf we instead angle somewhat toward the west. Maybe it does nothing for us, but we don't know how much water separates us from the Red force, and how long before we make contact.

Here is your initial ship formation. Let me know if this is acceptable. The formation is on a course of 308 deg towards Kuwait.

turn_1030_blue.txt

turn_1030_blue_intl.txt

From what I can tell, yes, it looks right to me. Incidentally-- is there a way to zoom or otherwise change the scale on SimPlot Viewer?

You can zoom with the + and - keys. You can also scroll with mouse right click (centers the map at the click point) or you can use the arrow keys. The C key will re-center the map at the original position.

 

I must apologize because I did not yet create a readme for Viewer. The keyboard commands are the same as SimPlot.