From Aviation Week

 

USN Hornet Shortfall Poised To Triple

Mar 18, 2008

By David A. Fulghum

 

The U.S. Navy's most recent estimate of a 69 F/A-18 Hornet and Super Hornet shortage is getting ready to leap by about 300 percent.

 

"The 69 minimum assumes that the Joint Strike Fighter F-35C is operational in 2015 as currently planned, that they buy them at 50 per year and that the [older] F/A-18A -Ds are going to last 10,000 hrs," says a senior aerospace industry official with insight into the program. "All those are very optimistic assumptions, and the Navy's characterization of the shortage [as 69 aircraft] is the most optimistic [extrapolation of that] scenario."

 

The data on the F/A-18A-Ds is starting to come in and there are a significant number of hot spots requiring maintenance or structural repair like any aging aircraft, say Navy and aerospace officials polled on the problem.

 

In June, the Navy will finish its full analysis of what has to be done to extend the life of Hornets. The majority of the repairs have to be done before the aircraft reach 8,000 flying hrs. The total needing the 8,000 hr. inspection and the associated repairs will quickly climb to 60-70 aircraft per year, specialists contend. The first problem will be handling the volume of inspections and the second will be planning and conducting the changes to handle problems found in the aircraft.

 

"If the inventory shortfall climbs from 69 to the more reasonable number of around 200, then you have four aircraft carriers worth of jets not available before JSF production can ramp up," the aerospace official says. "The [budget programming] for 2010 requires a decision on whether to add [super Hornet replacements for the older Hornets] in 2013 or not. If you don't then you start shutting down the [production] line in September 2010."

 

No one doubts the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) will get into production, but many Navy and industry acquisition officials attending the Navy League's Washington convention this week say that they don't think the Navy's version of the stealthy fighter is likely to stay on schedule. That would translate into a shortage of combat aircraft, accelerated flying time for those left in service, and finally, a faster end to their operational lives. A new Government Accountability Office review also doubts the program can meet its cost and schedule targets (Aerospace DAILY, March 14).

 

Congressional budgets plus-ups have shown a pronounced interest in the newest, two-seat, Block 2 F/A-18F Super Hornets that carry a weapon systems officer allowing it to conduct two missions simultaneously such as air-to-air combat and precision attack of multiple ground targets, either fixed or moving. However, civilian acquisition officials have battled against the two-seater in favor of the cheaper, single-seat F/A-18E.

 

Boeing officials a few weeks ago proposed that customers could buy even more advanced versions of the Super Hornet (which unofficially is attributed with forward stealth) and fly them until 6th generation strike aircraft with broader spectrum stealth are available - thereby skipping the 5th generation F-22 and F-35 (Aerospace DAILY, Jan. 30).

 

Lockheed Martin officials are livid at the suggestion and contend that Boeing's planning for the advanced design is too underdeveloped to make the claim that a generation jump is affordable or technically realistic.

 

[CV32: Even though me and the Bug/Superbug are on fairly decent terms, even I can see the outlook in this article is pretty grim].

From Flight International

 

DATE: 24/03/08

SOURCE: Flightglobal.com

 

Longer-life F/A-18 Hornet needed to fill US Navy's strike fighter gap

By John Croft

 

The US Navy is exploring the feasibility of extending the Boeing F/A-18's 6,000h service life to as much as 10,000h to deliver continued combat duty in the light of potential delays to the Lockheed Martin F-35C Joint Strike Fighter.

 

"We will keep them structurally safe and sound through the next decade," says Rear Adm Mark Skinner, programme executive officer for the navy's tactical aircraft programmes, who adds that parallel improvements will also be made to the aircraft's systems and components.

 

Speaking at the Navy League conference in Washington DC, Skinner said the over-arching goal for the USN will be to have 44 strike aircraft allocated to each of its carrier air wings by 2030, with these to be composed of F-35Cs and F/A-18E/F Super Hornets.

 

The navy expects the JSF's carrier variant to achieve initial operating capability in 2015, although the Government Accountability Office in an 11 March audit reported that three independent defence officials "separately concluded that programme cost estimates are understated by as much as $38 billion and that the development schedule is likely to slip from 12 to 27 months".

 

Under current plans, the navy will receive its last F/A-18s in 2013, bringing to 1,000 the total number of Hornets owned by the navy, US Marine Corps and seven foreign services.

 

Skinner says keeping the Super Hornet production line operating past 2011 is "an option we will look at more closely" if the JSF is further delayed.

That's an interesting turn of events, especially when the F-15 is proving that patches past original design lifetimes may not live up to expectations either (excepting of course total rebuilds like the AH-1Z).

 

Tony out

Notice as well the steadily shrinking fighter/attack capability of USN carrier air wings:

 

"... the over-arching goal for the USN will be to have 44 strike aircraft allocated to each of its carrier air wings by 2030, with these to be composed of F-35Cs and F/A-18E/F Super Hornets." [emphasis mine]

 

Compared with:

 

circa early 1980's -> 58 aircraft, incl 24x F-14, 24x F/A-18, 10x A-6E (i.e. when Tony was happy)

 

circa late 1980's > 50 aircraft, incl 14x F-14, 36x F/A-18

 

circa 2003 (when the Tomcat and Superbug shared the deck) -> 48 aircraft, incl 12x F-14, 24x F/A-18C, 12x F/A-18E

 

Sorry, this probably doesn't make you feel any better, Tony. I'll shut up now.