Here's something interesting, for future South China Sea scenarios:

 

From 2013-2018, Vietnam Will Receive a New Submarine Annually

The submarines will be equipped with Klub-S, anti-ship/anti-submarine missile with max range 300km. According to some unofficial sources from the Russian media, from the beginning of the month 6/2011 the Russian side has begun work on two Kilo 636M project class submarines, for the Vietnam Navy. The first will be delivered in 2013. Expected that Russia will hand over to Vietnam annually to a submarine in 2018.

 

Source: http://nosint.blogspot.com/2012/01/from-20...eceive-new.html

 

FWFS,

Greg Emerson, DM1(SW), USN-Retired

Renton, WA, USA

Interresting in two ways...

1) Is Vietnam feeling the pressure from China? (Spratly Islands perhaps?) I ask this because...

2) According to Wikipedia China paid $1.5B-2.0B for eight Kilo's, about $250M a piece . Also according to Wikipedia Vietnams military budget was $2.4B in 2009. So quick math says they are spending 10% of their budget a year on a single sub? Is my math correct? Seems a bit rich for a country whose per capita income is only $1300. Just for comparison the US Navy is spending 10% of their budget on several programs such as the Virginia class submarine, DDG-51 destroyer, carrier replacement program and the F/A-18. Any thoughts?

I understand that Vietnam is hoping to acquire six boats, and the total cost (2010 estimate) was expected to be US$3.2 billion, comprising US$2.1 billion for the actual submarines and another US$1.1 billion for weapons, infrastructure, etc.

 

Its worth bearing in mind that the Vietnamese annual naval budget has supposedly jumped 150 percent since 2008, and is anticipated to be about $400 million by the time this project is in full swing.

 

No doubt that the overhaul and upgrade of Vietnamese naval power has high priority. Consider the Gepard frigates as well.

Steven, thanks for the thoughtful comments. Vietnam and China have always been traditional adversaries. The issue over the Spratlys, China and ASEAN will only increase.

Vietnam like every other country finances their military hardware. The company I work for estimates Vietnam's defense budget for 2012 at/about US$2.3B. The navy will probabl see about 20% of that (roughly US$460M) and 40% of that or US$184M would be available for procurments. Payment plans are spread out over several years. Additionally, what one country pays for a platform (like China), isn't neccesarily what Vietname will pays. There is a whole bidding and offset process. The realm of armed forces procurments is a prett complicated ball of rubberbands to untangle.

At the same time Vietnam is procuring the subs from Russia, they have also purchase Gepard class frigates and is negotiating with Damen Schelde for other their Sigma class corvettes source: Aviationweek http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/jsp_include...0Modular%20Ship

Thanks for the post!

 

FWFS,

Greg Emerson, DM1(SW), USN-Retired

Renton, WA, USA

Steven, thanks for the thoughtful comments. Vietnam and China have always been traditional adversaries.

 

Remember that they fought a war in the late 1970s, IIRC.

Payment plans are spread out over several years.

Probably didn't think of that as the numbers tossed me around a bit but still a big upgrade from the Yugo's. Glad to see it rather than cutting back. Curious what their budget will be in 2018.

There are too many if's involved, to determine what their or anybodies budget willl be that far out.

 

FWFS,

 

Greg