HG S2 (Intel Bot)

The United States Air Force has moved at least 42 heavy transport aircraft into the Middle East between January 18 and January 26, 2026, according to open-source flight tracking data and analyst reports monitoring U.S. military air movements. Data compiled from publicly available flight trackers shows that 41 C-17A Globemaster III aircraft and one C-5M […]View the full article

The United States Air Force’s 92nd Air Refueling Wing announced that Fairchild Air Force Base in Washington will conduct an active threat response exercise on January 29, 2026, as part of routine emergency readiness training for personnel across the installation. According to the 92nd Air Refueling Wing, the exercise will involve base-wide participation and is […]View the full article

The UK Ministry of Defence has confirmed that SYOS Aerospace has been selected to advance to the next stage of Project NYX, a program to develop “wingman drones” designed to operate alongside British Army Apache attack helicopters, the MOD announced last week. The selection places SYOS Aerospace alongside major defense firms invited to submit prototype […]View the full article

Of all the theories out there about if/when/where the People’s Republic of China may decide to claw back more territory they “lost” during their century of humiliation, there is one common thread that is there, but is not given the attention it deserves: demographics. The demographic collapse we are all about to see over the next few decades will arrive in East Asia first, then Europe. The greatest impact on the globe will be in East Asia, simply by the numbers, if nothing else. Demographics are one of those things you really cannot spin your way out of. You can’t catch up. A baby is born and reaches adulthood—or it does not. You can try to hide numbers and lie to your boss for just so long; eventually, the bodies simply will not be there. In South Korea and Japan you have relatively transparent societies where decision makers and leaders can at least plan for what is coming, but for the largest nation in East Asia—and the U.S.A.’s greatest global competitor, that is not the case. Our friend Stephen Green is tapping everyone on the shoulders about this. “Last week, Beijing’s release of China’s national birth count for 2025 left demographers stunned,” Nicholas Eberstadt wrote for the New York Post on Saturday. “The national birth total plummeted by over 17% from 2024 to 2025,” a drop that is “almost never seen in stable modern societies.” Stick a pin in that last part. I’ll come back to it shortly. Eberstadt called the figures “only the latest readings from the astonishing birth crash that’s commenced under Xi Jinping’s rule: a drop by over half in just eight years that shows no sign as yet of abating.” “The new birth figures imply that the total fertility rate [TFR] has finally fallen below one birth per woman,” 10 ironic years after Xi ended China’s notorious One Child Policy. It’s a short list of countries with a TFR of less than one: South Korea, Taiwan, Ukraine, Singapore, Thailand, and now China. … Women must bear an average of 2.1 children for a population to remain steady. Anything above that, and a population grows. Anything less, and it slowly shrinks. At a TFR of 1.3, some experts hypothesize a nation enters the Low Fertility Trap, where each generation is roughly 50% smaller than the preceding generation — and that there's little hope of escape. When a nation — like China in 2025 — goes under 1 TFR, they're in what some demographers call the Ultra-Low Crisis. That's when "Shrinkanomics" starts to kick in as the tax base grows ever smaller, schools close, and the healthcare system is overwhelmed by a massive elderly population supported by a tiny, dwindling workforce. How are these numbers operationalized? China isn't there yet, but absent one of those nearly impossible turnarounds, the country will lose roughly 200 million people by 2050 — a loss over-represented by children and the working-age population. By 2100, China's population (currently best-estimated at about 1.25 billion by Dr. Yi Fuxian of the University of Wisconsin-Madison) could drop to between 390 and 440 million souls. Will the PRC really get old before it gets rich? Will it execute a last chance power drive while it has the surplus masses of young men to capture Taiwan and then the lost territories in Russia’s Far East? Will the social tensions to tend to the growing mass of elderly have a yet unexpected impact sooner more than later? I have no idea. No one really does. In written history, absent apocalyptic war or plague, no society—much less entire continents—has experienced anything like what is about to happen as we approach mid-century. There’s no avoiding it. The correction needed was left behind in the bedrooms at the end of the previous century. That comment about stability keeps popping up. What does an unstable nation of 1.25 billion souls look like? We may just find out. Now, go make babies. Leave a comment Share This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. View the full article

Taiwan has begun the first dive tests of its domestically built submarine Hai Kun (SS-711), marking a new phase in the island’s indigenous submarine program. According to Taiwan’s Liberty Times and other local outlets, the submarine conducted its initial submersion test on Sunday, moving beyond surface and harbor trials that have taken place over the […]View the full article

Sweden’s Armed Forces detected two Russian Su-35S fighter jets and one Tu-22M3 bomber flying over the Baltic Sea on January 23, prompting a response by Swedish Air Force quick reaction alert aircraft. According to a statement published by the Swedish Armed Forces, the aircraft were identified by Sweden’s incident readiness forces, which were scrambled to […]View the full article

Elbit Systems confirmed on January 26 that it has received a $228 million contract to supply Iron Fist Active Protection Systems for the U.S. Army’s Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicle upgrade program. According to the company, the contract expands ongoing deliveries of the Iron Fist system as part of the Army’s effort to improve survivability of […]View the full article

Russia’s Kalashnikov Concern has delivered a batch of newly developed electric transport vehicles to a military unit for use in the combat zone, the company announced. According to the company, the shipment included Izh-Enduro electric motorcycles and Izh-ScootWay electric scooters produced in-house and equipped with universal trailers for cargo transport. All vehicles were supplied with […]View the full article

China has placed its top operational military commander, General Zhang Youxia, under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law, a move that is expected to disrupt command continuity and delay any near-term plans for a military operation against Taiwan, The Telegraph reported. China’s Ministry of National Defense confirmed on Saturday that Zhang, vice chairman […]View the full article

Several Pakistan Air Force Ilyushin Il-78 aircraft were spotted at an airfield in China’s Sichuan province on January 19–20, according to photographs that surfaced online and were reviewed by regional observers. The aircraft, including one carrying the registration number R11-003, were seen on the ground and during departure from the base, indicating a temporary presence […]View the full article

China has launched an investigation into two of its most senior military officials, Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, on suspicion of serious violations of discipline and law, the Chinese government announced on Saturday, in a move that reaches the highest levels of the People’s Liberation Army command structure. According to the official announcement, Zhang Youxia, […]View the full article

No need to force yourself to head outside in this horrible weather—unless you are in the Free State of Florida where the high is expected to hit 80F or so. Let not your heart be troubled—we’ve got you covered. Catch up on all your maritime and national security concerns this Sunday afternoon from 5-6pm Eastern with a LIVE Midrats Podcast. From Davos to the Friday Defense Strategy dump to whatever comes over the transom, we’ve got you covered. You can join LIVE at this link. If you are reading this after the show, no problem. Just refresh the Substack later Sunday night for the podcast upload. This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Share Leave a comment View the full article

The United States is preparing Misawa Air Base in northern Japan to support the future deployment of F-35A stealth fighter aircraft, as part of a broader effort to modernize U.S. air power in the western Pacific. According to the report by Newsweek journalist Ryan Chan, the Pentagon plans to deploy 48 F-35A Lightning II jets […]View the full article

The United States Navy’s Independence-variant littoral combat ship USS Cincinnati (LCS 20) arrived at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base for a temporary port visit on January 24, 2026, marking the first visit by a U.S. warship since the base was expanded with Chinese support. According to the U.S. Navy, USS Cincinnati docked at the base in […]View the full article

Russia has replaced the leadership of its strategic aircraft manufacturer Tupolev, appointing 37-year-old Yuri Ambrosimov as chief executive to replace 76-year-old Aleksandr Bobryshev, according to a report by Defense Express citing Russian industry sources. The personnel change took place roughly one year after the previous round of management rotations at Tupolev in 2024 and comes […]View the full article

Ukrainian forces have destroyed an Iranian-made Shahed-107 attack drone using a STING interceptor drone during active combat operations, according to a report by the Ukrainian defense outlet Militarniy. The interception was carried out by fighters from the Sky Wars unit of the 47th Mechanized Brigade “Magura,” who used the STING drone interceptor to shoot down […]View the full article

Royal Navy warships and aircraft were activated to shadow Russian naval vessels during a two-day operation in the English Channel, the UK Ministry of Defence confirmed, as Russian forces transited waters near Britain en route to the North Sea. Portsmouth-based patrol ships HMS Mersey and HMS Severn were deployed alongside a Wildcat helicopter from 815 […]View the full article

Japan confirmed that a Russian IL-20 intelligence-gathering aircraft conducted a surveillance flight near the country’s western approaches on January 23, according to Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi. In a statement released on Friday, Koizumi said the Russian aircraft flew from the continental direction into the Sea of Japan, proceeded southwest, then changed course off the coast […]View the full article

The United States has delivered the first MC-55A Peregrine aircraft to the Royal Australian Air Force, L3Harris Technologies confirmed on January 24, 2026. The aircraft was handed over by the U.S. Air Force following completion of integration and mission system testing, according to the company. The delivery is part of Australia’s Peregrine program, which is […]View the full article

The United Kingdom has selected seven defense companies to develop prototype uncrewed aircraft that will operate alongside Apache attack helicopters, advancing a British Army program aimed at integrating autonomous systems into frontline aviation operations. The UK Ministry of Defence confirmed that the companies were invited to the next stage of Project NYX, a program designed […]View the full article

China has shipped a batch of Type 59 130mm towed artillery systems to a foreign customer, with images confirming the weapons loaded aboard a cargo vessel and prepared for export, according to open-source visuals recorded during offloading operations. Footage circulating on social media shows multiple Type 59 artillery pieces secured on wheeled carriages and covered […]View the full article

Russia used Tu-22M3 Backfire-C bombers to launch a salvo of heavy Kh-22/Kh-32 cruise missiles toward the Kyiv region on January 24, marking the first recorded use of these weapons against targets near the Ukrainian capital. Ukrainian air defense forces reported that Russia fired 12 Kh-22 or Kh-32 missiles toward a target on the outskirts of […]View the full article

United States missile manufacturing is failing to keep pace with the tempo of modern warfare, raising concerns about how quickly the military can replace precision weapons in a high-intensity conflict. To examine where the bottlenecks lie and how they affect readiness, Defence Blog sought comment from John Borrego, Senior Vice President of Aerospace and Defense […]View the full article

Russia has used export-version surface-to-air missiles intended for foreign customers to strike ground targets in Ukraine, according to an investigation published Friday by Defense Express. Fragments recovered after recent strikes show that Russia fired 48N6E2 missiles, an export variant of the long-range interceptor used by the S-300PMU2 Favorit and S-400 air defense systems. As reported […]View the full article

Though the Americans are now in the fight, still on every front; desperation. At every morning brief, more ships sunk. The enemy surrounds you as you starve. Your ships and aircraft sit idle for lack of fuel and parts. Through waves of attacks, a relief convoy comes ... and you wait. Do they know your desperation? Will they make it? What can be done? Well, in comes, Captain Dudley Mason - the master of the former U.S. and now U.K. tanker SS Ohio - and his crew and convoy. For the details, let’s look at the citation for his George Cross and the award to two of his crew, Frederick August Larsen, Jr., Junior Third Officer and Francis A. Dales, Deck Cadet-Midshipman on SS Santa Elisa/SS Ohio. A little note about those two men, they were not originally part of the crew of the Ohio. They had been rescued from the SS Santa Elisa when it was sunk. Then they volunteered to man the guns on the Ohio. Via WWIIToday: During the passage to Malta of an important convoy Captain Mason’s ship suffered most violent onslaught. She was a focus of attack throughout and was torpedoed early one night. Although gravely damaged, her engines were kept going and the Master made a magnificent passage by hand-steering and without a compass. The ship’s gunners helped to bring down one of the attacking aircraft. The vessel was hit again before morning, but though she did not sink, her engine room was wrecked. She was then towed. The unwieldy condition of the vessel and persistent enemy attacks made progress slow, and it was uncertain whether she would remain afloat. All next day progress somehow continued and the ship reached Malta after a further night at sea. The violence of the enemy could not deter the Master from his purpose. Throughout he showed skill and courage of the highest order and it was due to his determination that, in spite of the most persistent enemy opposition, the vessel, with her valuable cargo, eventually reached Malta and was safely berthed. The George Cross citation is very brief, as is the British custom. More detail is available with Larsen and Dales’ Merchant Marine Distinguished Service Medal citation; His ship was a freighter carrying drums of high-octane gasoline, one of two American ships, in a small British convoy to Malta. Orders were to “get through at all costs.” Heavily escorted, the convoy moved into the Mediterranean, and before noon of that day the enemy’s attack began. From then on the entire convoy was under constant attack from Axis planes and submarines. Assigned the command of an anti-aircraft gun mounted on the bridge, Dales contributed to the successful defense of his ship for three days. At 4:00 A.M. on the morning of the fourth day, torpedo boats succeeded in breaking through and two attacked from opposite sides. Sneaking in close under cover of the darkness one opened point-blank fire on Dales’s position with four .50 caliber machine guns, sweeping the bridge and killing three of his gun crew in the first bursts. The other sent its deadly torpedo into the opposite side of the freighter. Neither the heavy fire from the first torpedo boat nor the torpedo from the second drove Dales and his crew from their gun. With only flashes to fire at in the darkness, he found the target and the first boat burst into flames and sank. But the torpedo launched by the other had done its deadly work. The high-test gasoline cargo ignited and the American ship was engulfed in flames. Reluctantly, orders were given to abandon her. Two hours later, the survivors were picked up by a British destroyer, which then proceeded to take in tow a tanker [SS Ohio] that had been bombed and could not maneuver. After five hours constant dive-bombing, the tanker was hit again–her crew abandoned her–and the destroyer was forced to cut her loose. But the cargo she carried was most important to the defense of Malta, and it had to get through. The rescue destroyer and another destroyer steamed in– lashed themselves on either side of the stricken tanker–and dragged her along in a determined attempt to get her to port. Dales and four others volunteered to go aboard the tanker and man her guns in order to bring more fire power to their defense. The shackled ships, inching along and making a perfect target, were assailed by concentrated enemy airpower. All that day wave after wave of German and Italian bombers dived at them and were beaten off by a heavy barrage. Bombs straddled them, scoring near misses, but no direct hits were made until noon the next day, when the tanker finally received a bomb down her stack which blew out the bottom of her engine room. Though she continued to settle until her decks were awash, they fought her through until dusk that day brought them under the protection of the hard fighting air force out of Malta. Here’s the twist. How did they get the Ohio back to port with this much damage? Because of the vital importance of her cargo (10,000 tons of fuel which would enable the aircraft and submarines based at Malta to return to the offensive), she could not be abandoned. In a highly unusual manoeuvre, the two destroyers (HMS PENN and HMS LEDBURY) supported her to provide buoyancy and power for the remainder of the voyage. Mission focused; mission first. Fullbore. Leave a comment Share This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. 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