Raw Intel

No, you don’t want to put up Halloween decorations this afternoon, you want to continue to avoid it until the last minute…and instead plan to join Mark and me from 5-6 PM for another LIVE Midrats Podcast! If its happening in the national security arena and its worth talking about, we’ll cover it. You can listen live and join the studio chat at this link. If you are reading this after the show, check back on the Substack page later Sunday night for the podcast audio links. Leave a comment Share This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. View the full article

The war in Somalia is at a pivot point. If you read the latest Report of the Secretary-General on Somalia to the United Nations Security Council (PDF), you will find things do appear to be getting worse, not better. There are no territorial advances by the TFG, while security and humanitarian problems appear to be deteriorating within Somalia. Civilian casualties are up as are the use of IEDs, but fewer AU troops are being killed. Noteworthy the report explicitly claims "Mortars also impacted regularly near the United Nations common compound and the UNICEF compound," which is a new development over the period of the report suggesting perhaps territory is indeed being conc…

Kyle Mizokami has a fine piece up at the Diplomat about the prospects for a Japanese amphibious fleet: Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief missions are typically supported by naval vessels. The March Tohoku emergency, as well as the January 2010 Haitian earthquake, saw multinational fleets sortieing to the assistance of island nations. In both instances, natural disasters disrupted local airports and port facilities, slowing the flow of relief into the disaster zone. The design of naval vessels, such as the USS Essex in Tohoku and the Italian aircraft carrier Cavour in Haiti, made them key to opening up affected areas. Self-sufficient in food and power, and desig…

Eric Lindsey of CSBA published an excellent monograph last month examining how the U.S. Army might field land-based anti-ship missiles and rockets, not to mention air and missile defense systems, to defend forward U.S. allies from aggression. I strongly agree with the concept in principle. Such capabilities would be extremely useful for constraining an adversary’s wartime use of the waters and airspace adjacent to a U.S. ally’s territory. They would definitely increase the adversary’s potential costs and risks of hazarding transits through maritime chokepoints controlled by the ally, conducting close blockades against the ally, or executing amphibious/airborne assau…

So, the day after the election, what does the USCG really want its officers performance evaluated on? Of course. Para 3 covers it. R 041533 NOV 20 FM COMDT COGARD WASHINGTON DC//CG-1// TO ALCOAST UNCLAS //N01000// ALCOAST 399/20 COMDTNOTE 1000 SUBJ: GUIDANCE FOR TARGETED MID-TERM COUNSELING FOR OFFICERS A. Officer Accessions, Evaluations, and Promotions, COMDTINST M1000.3 (series) B. COMDT COGARD WASHINGTON DC 041026 NOV 20/ACN 129/20 C. COMDT’s Guidance to Officer Boards and Panels D. COMDT COGARD WASHINGTON DC 251640 JUN 20/ALCOAST 252/20 1. All reported on officers (ROOs) must receive mid-term counseling as required by REF (A) and as updated by REF (B).…

KAL A330-200 (click to view full) South Korea is moving to buy 4 long-range aerial refueling tankers with secondary transport capabilities, with a budget of WON 2 billion (about $1.8 billion). That capability isn’t a huge priority on the Korean peninsula itself, but it’s very useful for international operations. It’s useful as a way of projecting regional power, as territorial disputes flare with China. As Asian economies grow and militaries modernize, these factors have made long-range aerial refueling a growing regional priority. China, India, Pakistan and China deploy the Russian IL-78. Japan fields 4 Boeing KC-767As, and may raise that to 8 under recent plans. Simi…

Arrow test concept (click to view full) In a dawning age of rogue states, ballistic missile defenses are steadily become a widely accepted necessity. Iran is widely believed to be developing nuclear capabilities, and Israeli concerns were heightened after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad urged that Israel be “wiped off the map” (the fact that America was also placed in that category went largely uncovered). Because missile defenses are so important, states like India and Israel have taken steps to ensure that they have the ability to build many of the key pieces. The Arrow project is a collaboration between Boeing and IAI to produce the missile interceptors that a…

With the expected losses due to enemy action and mechanical failure, how do we plan to rescue aviators out of the water in the western Pacific? What few subs we have will be fully employed elsewhere and really shouldn’t show themselves in a lot of those waters. We don’t have a lot of surface ships with helos either to spare. As the USMC desires to make every island possible a fighting position, how do you supply them when their airfields – such that the are – are cratered by the PLARF conventional S//M/IRBM at D+1? If your major airfields are unusable due to enemy military action or host nation political uncertainty ... how do you conduct long range ASW and reconnaissance…

Americas Sikorsky won a $98.9 million deal for UH-60M Black Hawk aircraft. UH-60 Black Hawk is a multi-mission helicopter developed by Sikorsky that has been operational in the US Army since 1978. The export version of the UH-60 Black Hawk is designated as S-70A. Work will take place in Connecticut. Estimated completion date is June 30, 2027. The US Navy is seeking proposals to build a low-cost unmanned vessel capable of towing and launching many unmanned vessels into contested environments. A design and construction contract could be awarded by mid-2026, with expected vessel delivery beginning within two years. Middle East & Africa The Israeli government is asking …

Americas Lockheed Martin on a $172 million modification, which definitizes the order and adds scope to provide special test/tooling equipment for increasing Block 4 manufacturing capacity, as well as procures material modification kits in support of removing life limits, correcting deficiencies, and retrofitting aircraft to incorporate Next Gen Distributed Aperture System hardware and associated Power […]View the full article

Americas BAE Systems has been awarded $25 million to provide the US Marine Corps with more Amphibious Combat Vehicle-Personnel units (ACV-P) under its fourth order for full-rate production. The deal is a follow-on order to a previously-awarded $181-million contract for the vehicles. The agreement also covers the vehicles’ fielding and sustainment costs, as well as support […]View the full article

Austal Team Trimaran LCS Design (click to enlarge) Exploit simplicity, numbers, the pace of technology development in electronics and robotics, and fast reconfiguration. That was the US Navy’s idea for the low-end backbone of its future surface combatant fleet. Inspired by successful experiments like Denmark’s Standard Flex ships, the US Navy’s $35+ billion “Littoral Combat Ship” program was intended to create a new generation of affordable surface combatants that could operate in dangerous shallow and near-shore environments, while remaining affordable and capable throughout their lifetimes. It hasn’t worked that way. In practice, the Navy hasn’t been able to reconcile w…

Ukrainian forces have introduced a new naval drone designed for operations on the Dnipro River, according to a report from the defense news outlet Militarnyi. The system, named Barracuda, was developed by the special unit “Barracuda,” which operates under the 40th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade, part of the 30th Marine Corps. The report said the […] The post Ukraine’s Marines develop new naval drone for littoral warfare first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

Those who follow me on X know what is coming up. It predates by years the Russo-Ukrainian War for reasons we will dive into later. We are surrounded by error, but specifically here, the habit of NATO, Eurocrats, earnest North Americans, politicians, military personnel, media, and civilians trying to sound serious in the national security arena, constantly looking towards Russia in the east and calling it NATO’s eastern flank. I’m sorry, I don’t care how many times you say it, it simply isn’t. It is NATO’s eastern front. After an exchange earlier this month with The Economist’s (and Midrats Podcast alumnus) Defence Editor Shashank Joshi, I decided I needed to put this out…

China may be exploring its own version of the U.S. Army’s Next Generation Squad Weapon (NGSW) program, according to footage that recently surfaced on the Chinese social media platform Douyin (TikTok). The video shows a weapons collector examining what appears to be a Chinese experimental 6.8×50mm armor-piercing cartridge with a tungsten carbide core. While there […] The post China explores small arms upgrade with 6.8mm round first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

A U.S. Air Force B-52 Stratofortress conducted a coordinated transit with two Navy warships—USS Gettysburg and USS Stockdale—during a joint, multi-domain operation in the Caribbean Sea on November 13, 2025. According to the U.S. Navy, the strategic bomber flew overhead as the Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser USS Gettysburg (CG 64) and the Arleigh Burke-class guided […]View the full article

Finland has authorized the procurement of AIM-120D-3 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) from the United States, a move aimed at equipping the country’s incoming F-35A fighters and aligning Finland’s air combat capabilities with those of its closest allies. According to a press release from Finland’s Ministry of Defence dated December 12, 2025, Minister of […]View the full article

The French Army’s 2nd Armored Brigade presented new combat systems shaped by battlefield lessons from the war in Ukraine during an Innovation Day held on January 15, 2026, in Bitche, highlighting France’s effort to rapidly adapt its ground forces to modern high-intensity warfare. The event focused on technologies developed by brigade regiments over nearly two […]View the full article

A Russian missile strike destroyed a production line for Ukraine’s Flamingo cruise missile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Feb. 14 during a briefing on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Zelenskyy said the attack targeted a major manufacturing facility connected to the domestically developed long-range missile program, temporarily disrupting production at a time when […]View the full article

The Polish Armed Forces have launched a training cycle for operators of the AS-3 MEROPS drone interceptor, marking the next phase in Poland’s effort to expand capabilities for countering aerial threats. Initial training activities were conducted at military training areas in Lipa and at the Central Air Force Training Range Ustka. The training program is […]View the full article