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Strategic bombing campaign theory has only been with us for a century. People are still arguing everything from the utility of B-17s over Germany, B-29s over Japan, or B-52s over Vietnam, but the theory has always held promise for those who are trying to find a way to achieve from the air what would otherwise be outsourced to a long bloody slog paved with the bodies of young men in the mud. Books are filled with the results—hundreds of thousands of civilians burned alive, starved, or crushed under rubble to take out one railroad junction moving soldiers and supplies, a ballbearing factory seen as the key to war production, mining the approaches to a port bringing in food, or simply to “bring the war home” and humiliate an opponent’s leadership in front of its people. In some cases, the mass destruction was the goal, but usually it was just collateral damage trying to play the odds that something critical would be hit given the weapons of the time. Accuracy. That was the issue—accuracy, or lack of it. Compensate for inaccuracy with volume. The Germans brought a new twist to the theory with the V-1 cruise missile and V-2 Short Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM), but again, besides bringing terror, the inaccuracy of both weapons limited real practical utility. With the atomic bomb, accuracy was not important…but if you go nuclear, even if you win, you lose. In the decades following WWII, we’ve seen the evolution of rocket artillery—something that has been with us for centuries—towards the ballistic missile arena. A perfect example of this is the U.S. HIMARS, which can fire everything from MLRS rockets through GMLRS to the SRBMs we know as ATACMS and PrSM. The Russo-Ukrainian War has normalized the use of not just the SRBM, but the Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBM) by the Russians. The Ukrainians have been limited to what few ATACMS they’ve received and the use restrictions that come with them. To compensate for their lack of ballistic missiles, the Ukrainians leveraged their ability to produce the slow, small warhead, but effective, series of drones to strike Russia at range. Recently, the large and long-range FP-2 Flamingo cruise missile has opened up even more of Russia to attack. Produced domestically, they don’t have limitations and produced in volume they can start to make significant effects. Let’s back up a bit. What do we have now that did not exist 80 or even a decade ago? Accuracy. Affordable, scalable accuracy. First tier nations could fly a cruise missile through your office window, or drop a missile down your chimney, but that was a national asset—complicated to build, required a vast infrastructure to support, and outrageous amounts of money to deploy. Miniaturization and advances in computing and navigation options have dropped those barriers. You no longer have to block out the sun with bombers and kill hundreds of thousands to disrupt industry and logistics in the deep fight—you just need range and precision. Now what Ukraine needs are weapons at scale to do with ballistic missiles what we have watched them do this year with their drones and Flamingo cruise missiles. The key here is not that ballistic missiles will replace the broad spectrum of drones and cruise missiles they produce domestically, but that they will add to it. More tools in the weaponeering toolbox. Diversity in weapons is hated by the Cult of Efficiency at peace, but are loved by those wanting effectiveness at war. It multiplies your effectiveness at the same time making it more difficult for your opponent to defend against your strikes. As such, should New Year’s 2027 find this war still ongoing, the Russians will have an additional challenge to contend with. Ukraine could launch its first strikes on Moscow using domestically developed ballistic missiles as early as this autumn, according to Denys Shtilerman, owner and chief designer of defense company Fire Point. Speaking in an interview with journalist Dmitry Gordon, published July 27, Shtilerman said the company is in the final stage of testing a new missile system. Once test launches are completed, the missiles could begin being used against targets inside Russia. … The company plans to manufacture between 10 and 20 missiles for test launches, with production potentially increasing to dozens of units once the weapon receives official codification and procurement approval. Fire Point is one of Ukraine’s largest defense contractors, producing the FP-1 long-range strike drones and FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles. The company announced the development of its FP-7 and FP-9 ballistic missile projects in September 2025. The first test launch of the FP-7 was shown in February. The missile is reportedly designed to strike targets at distances of up to 250–300 kilometers, while the larger FP-9 is expected to have a range of up to 850 kilometers. The challenge will be to launch as close to Russia as possible to reach the most targets. My assumption would be that the Ukrainians will use the modified flatbed trailer Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) system they use with the FP-5 Flamingo. Ungainly, not ideal, but affordable and already proven. Downside is that they are easy to find, hard to hide, and limited to the roads you can take them on. For much of the year, I would also assume they would be limited to paved roads. I’ll let the pros figure that out, but as always, let’s go to the map room and put some geography to those numbers. If you wanted to get as close as possible to the Russian heartland that runs from Moscow to St. Petersburg, you’d want to get your launch site as close as possible. For planning purposes, let’s pick the forested openings around Benzyky. Where would that get you? To start with, most people are familiar with the ATACMS and PrSM mentioned at the top of the post. In open source, generally you have a range of 300 km (Carolina blue) and 500 km (Duke blue). The FP-7 will get you 250 km (NC State red) and maybe more. The FP-9 will get you out to 850 km (Clemson orange). If instead you wanted to use these weapons elsewhere, just move around. Always have a good toolbox…and one note to put in your Future-Risk folder: Assuming Ukraine can finish this war to her rough advantage with independence, she will have a few challenges. Expunge the culture of corruption. Rebuild her economy. Make babies. In this scenario, she will have some of the most combat proven and affordable weapons systems out there in production. To meet #2, she has to leverage every competitive advantage she has to generate income and support well paying jobs. She will be selling her weapons to whoever has the hard cash to buy them. Just put that tidbit in your folder. Leave a comment Share This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. View the full article

An unmanned fighter jet built to fly and fight alongside human pilots has left the sterile confines of a test range and flown its first real-world combat exercise in the Nevada desert, according to a release from Air Force Warfare Center Public Affairs published July 27, 2026. The exercise, conducted at Creech Air Force Base […]View the full article

A Calgary startup has built a missile that weighs about as much as a housecat, and it might end up deciding whether a $100,000 drone attack on a power plant succeeds or fails. North Vector Dynamics, a Canadian defense technology company based in Calgary, posted on social media on July 27, 2026, introducing the CM-70, […]View the full article

DRS Network and Imaging Systems LLC, based in Melbourne, Florida, has been awarded a $55.7 million contract to provide engineering services for the Improved Bradley Acquisition Subsystem, known as IBAS, the sighting, targeting and missile control system that lets Bradley Fighting Vehicle crews spot, track and engage enemy targets, according to a federal contract award […]View the full article

Patriot missile batteries have a blind spot, a literal gap in their radar coverage that an enemy missile or drone could exploit simply by approaching from the wrong direction, and the U.S. Army has committed another $347.5 million to closing it for good. Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control, based in Grand Prairie, Texas, has […]View the full article

RTX Corp.’s Pratt & Whitney Military Engines division in East Hartford, Connecticut, has been awarded a $54 million order to perform engineering work on the F135, the engine that powers every version of the F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter, according to the contract announcement. The order, issued under a fixed-price incentive structure that rewards the […]View the full article

The nuclear missiles sitting in underground silos across the American heartland run on hardware that is more than five decades old, and keeping the parts flowing to maintain them received a $12 million boost in software support. Carahsoft, a government technology reseller based in Reston, Virginia, has been awarded a firm-fixed-price contract worth up to […]View the full article

A defense manufacturer in the middle of Nebraska farm country has landed a $33.9 million contract to build the outer shells of bombs engineered to kill fewer bystanders, a niche corner of American weapons-making that reflects one of the hardest problems in modern warfare: how to strike an enemy hiding among civilians without leveling the […]View the full article

The U.S. Navy has put another $17.1 million behind a laser weapon designed to burn incoming drones and missiles out of the sky before they ever reach a warship, and the contractor building it isn’t the company that started the job. Attalon Inc., a defense technology firm based in Murrieta, California, has been awarded a […]View the full article

And both the email and board notifications came thru that you'd replied. (The reason for doing the post to test email notifications).

Thanks for sharing, that's rather more intimidating than our rabbits.

Robotics company Target Arm Inc. said this week that its drone launch and recovery system has been integrated with unmanned ground vehicles built by HDT Global, a manufacturer of rugged robotic platforms used in military and industrial settings. The company announced the integration on social media on July 27, 2026. The combination pairs HDT Global’s […]View the full article

A rifle that decides, mid-trigger-pull, when to let the round go, not the shooter, is now fielded or in procurement across an estimated 10 to 15 European countries, according to Israel Weapon Industries (IWI). The system, called ARBEL, does not detect drones or aim the weapon. It does one thing: it controls the timing of […]View the full article

Axon Vision, an Israeli defense technology company based in Tel Aviv, announced Monday that it has teamed up with ParaZero Technologies, an Israeli firm based in Kfar Saba, to build an integrated counter-drone system aimed at protecting critical infrastructure sites where blowing an incoming drone out of the sky simply isn’t an option. The new […]View the full article

The Swedish defense company announced Monday that it has received an order for two GlobalEye airborne early warning and control aircraft from an undisclosed country in the Middle East, a deal valued at roughly $1 billion. Deliveries are scheduled for 2030, and beyond that, Saab isn’t saying much. The company cited the sensitive nature of […]View the full article

NATO leaders wrapped up their summit in Ankara, Turkey, in July 2026 having announced more than $50 billion in new defense procurement deals, covering everything from precision strike weapons to air and missile defense systems, according to the alliance’s own summit declaration. Alongside that headline figure, member states also committed to a five-year, $40 billion […]View the full article

President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on July 27, 2026, setting a new authorized size for the Russian Armed Forces at 2,426,130 personnel, of which 1,535,000 are uniformed troops, according to the text of the decree published on Russia’s official legal information portal, pravo.gov.ru. The order, numbered Decree 526, formally amends a 2004 decree that […]View the full article

To start off with—usual caveats apply. Yes, this is Axios, but Barak Ravid is a serious reporter that I have no evidence that he has a history of making stuff up. I also know that the Trump administration is pretty good at message control and minimizing leaks…especially on national security issues. I also know that is DC, which is leaky for both official and unofficial reasons. As such, I’ll put forward an opening bet that this is 51% close to right. If I had to place the odds: 10% this is fake news; 20% chance this is an unofficial leak; 70% it is an official leak. Ambient noise and transmission loss of about 30%…so we’re seeing something—good chance—but not quite what happened…but good enough I think to comment on. As such, let’s look at what looks like a Cliff’s Notes version of a decision brief as reported by Ravid in Sunday: Top U.S. military commander in Middle East advised halting Hormuz bombing. The top U.S. military commander in the Middle East, Adm. Brad Cooper, recommended stopping the bombing campaign around the Strait of Hormuz because it has reached the limit of its effectiveness, according to two sources with knowledge of his position. Admiral Cooper looks to be doing exactly what he is supposed to do from an Operational Planning perspective. He received Higher Direction and Guidance (D&G) and Commander’s Intent (CI) in what looks like a Sequel Plan to whatever started months ago, and worked out a series of Courses of Action (COA) to meet the D&G/CI. You want to give the Principal options, but you also want to make sure you give a clear recommendation of which COA he should pursue. Sometimes, the Principal will take your recommendation as is. Perhaps with a few minor changes, or direction to—if you’re like me and bring three COA to the briefing—instead go with one of the not-recommended COA, or something between the two. If you’ve done a really bad job, or were not privy to information you should have been known, you’ll be told to go in a completely different direction. All that is normal and expected. Each COA has its advantages and disadvantages, strengths and weaknesses—more risk in one area, less in others. Some have certain assumptions, others do not. It is an art, not a science. Earlier in the week, Admiral Cooper gave his recommendation on the way forward to the Pentagon, the joint chiefs and the White House, the sources said. He stressed that the two weeks of strikes in the Strait of Hormuz area had significantly degraded Iran’s ability to attack ships. Cooper noted that the designated bombing targets had been mostly exhausted. … He stressed that the two weeks of strikes in the Strait of Hormuz area had significantly degraded Iran’s ability to attack ships. Cooper noted that the designated bombing targets had been mostly exhausted. This looks to be part of Cooper’s Commander’s Estimate of the Situation that informs his recommendations. As this is an ongoing operation, this can and should change as facts change on the ground. The CENTCOM commander said a possible next step would be to resume major combat operations to finish the 20% of targets the U.S. military designated but didn’t strike during Operation Epic Fury. Absent a decision to return to major combat operations, he stressed there was no point in continuing the bombing campaign of the previous two weeks, the sources said. I’ve seen that “20%” number in a few places and sounds about right. I would hazard a guess that that 20% is nationwide, not limited to the Strait of Hormuz. As such, that other 20% is most likely your 3rd and 4th tier targets not worth taking the risk of losing an aircraft and crew behind enemy lines. We got good/lucky once, no need to try our luck again. At this point, we just need to let the J2 house cook. Find those military targets that threaten the Strait of Hormuz, take care of them as needed, but otherwise husband resources. As I’ve made myself clear over the last few months, mostly on the UNCLAS Read Board Podcast, I was supportive of a more limited punitive expedition and cautioned against expanding the initial mission set. It appears we are returning to centerline. If Ravid’s reporting is correct, then perhaps we are resetting to a more pragmatic and realistic stance towards Iran. Good. Leave a comment Share This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. View the full article

Rocket Lab Corporation, the publicly traded space company known primarily for its small satellite launch vehicles, announced a $266 million multi-launch contract with the U.S. Space Force, the branch of the Department of War responsible for military operations in and through space, marking the largest single launch agreement the company has ever secured. The deal […]View the full article

The U.S. Army, Navy and Space Force have tested an electronic warfare system at sea for the first time, and its name alone tells you what kind of punch the Pentagon expects it to pack. The joint services put a maritime version of a system called Hammer of the Gods through its paces in mid-July […]View the full article

The U.S. Army reported that during Project Convergence-Capstone 6, a large-scale experimentation event hosted at Fort Irwin, California, Army Aviation demonstrated a networked strike sequence over the high desert in which two reconnaissance drones located and identified a threat before a third, weaponized drone flew in to finish it off, according to a story by […]View the full article

The U.S. Navy handed a brand-new missile maker $70 million to build a cheap cruise missile, and it says this is only the opening move. The Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development and Acquisition confirmed that PAE Munitions, the Navy’s precision-strike acquisition arm, awarded CoAspire, a company it described as […]View the full article

With increased defense spending becoming the new normal and growing uncertainty on the alliance’s eastern front as the Russo-Ukrainian War enters its fifth summer, the Ankara NATO summit was more than just a photo-op. Returning to the Midrats Podcast to discuss the major takeaways will be Jorge Benitez. You can listen at this link, or via the Spotify link below. SummaryIn this episode, Dr. George Benitez discusses the recent NATO summit, focusing on defense spending, alliance strategies, and the evolving threats from Russia, China, and Iran. He provides insights into NATO’s strategic shifts, the importance of Ukraine’s potential NATO membership, and the challenges of modern military logistics and industrial capacity. Show LinksThe Ankara Summit Declaration NATO Summit history NATO nations’ defense spending as a percentage of GDP Robert Gates’s 2011 speech Patriot missiles produced in Germany TakeawaysNATO has increased defense spending by 20% since 2023, with a goal of 5% of GDP. Ukraine’s military readiness and combat experience are vital for NATO deterrence. The alliance’s focus on China has waned, despite growing threats from Chinese cooperation with Russia and Iran. European defense industries are expanding production, e.g., Patriot missile manufacturing in Europe. Geography and proximity to Russia heavily influence NATO members’ defense budgets and perceptions of threat. Chapters00:00: Introduction and overview of NATO summit 02:07: Dr. Benitez’s insights on NATO’s recent summit 04:12: US leadership and NATO’s Article 5 reaffirmation 05:50: Defense spending commitments and burden sharing 08:10: Russian threat and European defense efforts 12:22: Geography and threat perception in NATO 20:00: Ukraine’s role and NATO expansion 37:55: China’s evolving role and NATO’s strategic focus 45:25: European defense industries and supply chain resilience 01:01:17: European and NATO industrial cooperation 01:02:40: Closing remarks and follow-up Dr. Jorge Benitez is Associate Professor of International Relations at the Marine Corps Command and Staff College. Before he joined the faculty of the Marine Corps Command and Staff College, Dr. Benitez served as a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, where he regularly briefed senior US and foreign officials on national security issues. Earlier in his career, he served as Assistant for Alliance issues to the Director of NATO Affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He also worked on international security issues at the Department of State and the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis. You can follow his coverage of security issues on X @NATOSource. Dr. Benitez received a B.A. with honors from the University of Florida, where he majored in both Political Science and History. He later graduated with an M.P.P. from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and a Ph.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Leave a comment Share This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. View the full article

A Romanian F-16 fighter jet shot down a Russian-linked drone over the Black Sea on Sunday morning, marking the third such intercept in just three days, and Romania’s president says the country has had enough. President Nicusor Dan confirmed that Romanian Air Force pilots downed the drone at 10:13 a.m. local time roughly 12 kilometers […]View the full article

Uzbekistan’s president just got a firsthand look at armored personnel carriers, a self-propelled howitzer, and an upgraded Soviet-era tank rolling out of a factory that barely existed five years ago, and the visit signals a country quietly building its own domestic arms industry from scratch. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev toured the Nurafshon Makhsus Tekhnika enterprise in […]View the full article