From Defence Talk

 

NKorea sparks international alarm with plans for nuclear test

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

October 4th, 2006, 12:31

 

North Korea announced it would carry out its first nuclear test in response to what it called a United States "threat of nuclear war and sanctions", raising tensions worldwide.

 

No date was given for the test, but the shock announcement drew immediate and strongly worded condemnation from Japan, which warned that the reclusive communist state may make good on its threat.

 

Washington said a test "would pose an unacceptable threat to peace and stability in Asia and the world."

 

"A provocative action of this nature would only further isolate the North Korean regime and deny the people of the North the benefits they so rightly deserve," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said in Cairo.

 

"The US will continue to work with its allies and partners to discourage such a reckless action and will respond appropriately."

 

The White House said a nuclear test would be reckless, and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said it would be a "very provocative act."

 

"This is not just an issue for the US, but an issue for the entire neighborhood, and I think a quite serious issue for the entire neighborhood," she said.

 

The US ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton said he planned to raise the threat in the Security Council.

 

South Korea expressed "deep regret and concern", Russia urged restraint and Britain said any test would risk "serious consequences". Australia said a test would damage regional security.

 

The North's foreign ministry said its atomic programme was essential in deterring Washington and that, after developing nuclear weapons, it had to test them.

 

"The US extreme threat of a nuclear war and sanctions and pressure compel the DPRK (North Korea) to conduct a nuclear test, an essential process for bolstering nuclear deterrent, as a corresponding measure," it said.

 

The test would be conducted under conditions where "safety is firmly guaranteed," it added in the statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency, vowing no first use of a nuclear weapon.

 

"The Korean nation stands at the crossroads of life and death," it said. "A people without a reliable war deterrent are bound to meet a tragic death, and the sovereignty of their country is bound to be wantonly infringed upon."

 

The North said the administration of US President George W. Bush was intent on toppling its socialist system.

 

It said US sanctions and a UN Security Council resolution imposing other sanctions on the North, passed after it test-launched seven missiles in July, meant that security was at risk.

 

Calling the UN resolution a de facto "declaration of war", it said it would do its utmost to de-nuclearise the Korean peninsula but without disarming unilaterally.

 

The North's statement lashed out at the Bush government's "foolish attempt to isolate and stifle it economically and bring down the socialist system chosen by its people themselves," and reiterated its February 2005 claim that it had developed the atom bomb.

 

"The already declared possession of nuclear weapons pre-supposes the nuclear test," it said, adding: "The DPRK will never use nuclear weapons first."

 

Japan's Foreign Minister Taro Aso called the idea unforgivable.

 

"It would be a threat to peace. We would never be able to forgive such a move," Aso said. "It would gravely affect Northeast Asia, including Japan."

 

Aso said he did not doubt North Korea's resolve in testing a nuclear device.

 

"In the past, the country has done what it had said earlier. So I think it would be wrong automatically to think the country will not do this."

 

Officials in Seoul said the South would step up surveillance to detect any sign of a test.

 

"This poses a grave threat to peace on the Korean peninsula and it will have a decisively negative impact on inter-Korean relations," said Unification Ministry spokesman Yang Chang-Seok.

 

"We express deep regret and concern."

 

An emergency session of the Security Policy Coordination Meeting was set to be held at 7:00 am on Wednesday (2200 GMT Tuesday).

 

The Seoul government has for years adopted a "sunshine policy" of engagement with the North but suspended its regular aid shipments after the missile tests.

 

Peter Beck, director for Northeast Asia of the International Crisis Group, said the threat to stage a nuclear test should be taken seriously.

 

The announcement meant the North had given up negotiating with the Bush administration and only its sole major ally China could restrain it, he said.

 

The current stand-off over North Korea's nuclear programmes erupted in 2002 when the United States accused it of running a secret uranium enrichment programme in violation of a 1994 de-nuclearisation agreement.

 

North Korea responded by withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty in January 2003 before announcing eight months later that it had produced enough weapons-grade plutonium to make half a dozen atomic bombs.

 

It declared in February 2005 that it had built nuclear weapons and the US Central Intelligence Agency has stated that it believes Pyongyang has created several crude atomic bombs.

 

The United States, the two Koreas, China, Russia and Japan signed a joint statement in September last year under which the North would abandon its nuclear program in return for energy and economic aid, eventual diplomatic benefits and security guarantees.

 

But two months later, North Korea boycotted the forum in protest at US sanctions on a Macau bank which allegedly helped it pass counterfeit US dollars and launder funds.

From Defence Talk

 

North Korea Nuke Test Threat Should Be Taken Seriously, Analysts say

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

October 4th, 2006, 12:34

 

Seoul: North Korea's threat on Tuesday to carry out a nuclear weapons test should be taken very seriously, analysts say. "I don't think we can interpret it as a negotiating tactic given that they did not get the response they wanted from the missile launches," said Peter Beck, director for Northeast Asia of the International Crisis Group. "It's a disturbing development."

 

Two Korean analysts also said a test was a possibility, perhaps before the US mid-term elections in November.

 

North Korea's foreign ministry announced it would carry out a nuclear weapons test in response to threats and sanctions from the United States, which it said was trying to topple its communist regime.

 

No date or time was given.

 

A UN Security Council resolution imposing weapons-related sanctions after the North test-fired seven missiles in July was a de facto "declaration of war," the ministry said.

 

Beck said the announcement means the North has essentially given up on negotiating with the Bush administration, which has been trying in vain to bring Pyongyang back to six-nation talks on eliminating its nuclear program.

 

"When they launched the missiles I thought they were playing a game of brinkmanship to get their (US's) attention... this statement, coming from the foreign ministry, you have to take it seriously," he told AFP.

 

Beck said a nuclear test was technically easier than a missile launch and the North had had more than a decade to get ready for it. "We have to take the threat very seriously."

 

He said the North had "tested the waters" with its missile launches and there had since been no significant curtailment of energy shipments from Beijing.

 

"The only thing standing between them and a test is Beijing, which could cut off fuel shipments. That would get the North's attention."

 

Beck, whose Brussels-based organisation works on global conflict resolution, said a test would gain the North nothing externally. "It will only further isolate them and move them further into pariah status."

 

He said it might be planned for domestic purposes, possibly to keep the powerful army happy or to rally the public.

 

"The possibility of North Korea carrying out a nuclear test is quite high as the United States has made it clear that it would not accept Pyongyang's demand for lifting the financial sanctions," said Professor Kim Yeon-Chul of Korea University.

 

The US imposed sanctions on a Macau bank accused of laundering money for the North in September 2005, the same month that Pyongyang agreed in principle at the six-nation talks to scrap its nuclear program in exchange for economic benefits and security guarantees.

 

"North Korea wants to gain an upper hand in future negotiations with the United States, with nuclear weapons at its hand," Kim said.

 

Professor Lee Chul-Ki of Dongguk University said the announcement aimed to influence US public opinion before the November elections.

 

"There is a possibility that North Korea may take the action (nuclear testing) ahead of the November mid-term election in the United States unless Washington takes clear steps toward direct negotiations."

 

John Swenson-Wright, of the Chatham House international affairs think-tank in London, said North Korea's threat should not be underestimated but he would be surprised if it carried it out.

 

The threat could have resulted from frustration at the lack of progress in the six-party talks but also with an eye on the mid-term elections, he added.

 

With the fall-out from the missile launches and the White House's focus on curbing counterfeiting and access to businesses used by top leaders, Pyongyang was attempting to "get the agenda back on their own terms and raise international awareness," he said.

 

"I would be surprised if they went ahead and tested. It exposes them to a great deal of risk, far more than the missile launch..."

 

But he said the North was aware that Bush was committed in Iraq and facing a potential nuclear threat from Iran.

 

"This is probably part diplomatic brinkmanship... this is an effort by Pyongyang to say, 'Take us seriously'," he said.

 

To defuse the threat, "I think the Americans are going to have to move pretty quickly to put something on the table that looks attractive to the North Koreans."