March 3, 201016 yr The Simulation-Reality Mismatch By John Michael Loh Manned aircraft will be able to penetrate future advanced defenses. Now somebody tell the simulation gang. Historically, there has been a mismatch between the air combat attrition predictions of analysts’ computer models and the actual attrition experienced in major air campaigns. Simply put, the models have always erred on the pessimistic side. Understanding the sources of this mismatch is important today because many Air Force and Pentagon experts are at it again. This time, they are claiming that even stealthy fifth generation fighters and B-2 bombers cannot penetrate future threat arrays without unacceptable losses. They conclude that the Air Force must depend almost solely on weapons launched from standoff distances to defeat future integrated air defense systems (IADS). If this viewpoint takes hold, the consequences would be severe. Such a belief undermines the perceived value of airpower, weakens our ability to deter potential adversaries, and will raise the cost of equipping future air forces. However, an accurate review of history reveals a far different picture of the ability of USAF aircraft to penetrate contemporary defenses. More here.
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