Ma's victory eases tension

From Jane's

Ma's victory eases tension across Taiwan Strait

01 April 2008

When Ma Ying-jeou is asked how his China-friendly attitude will play out in practice, he flinches. Although Ma just won Taiwan's presidential election in a landslide on an agenda of closer links with the island's economically attractive but politically hostile neighbour, he is very cautious.

Welcome to political reality in Taiwan. While Ma has pledged not to move towards independence during his term in office, he has also committed himself not to negotiate unification. This sets a tight framework for what Ma can achieve. He has made clear that he will not try to resolve the conflict once and for all, but rather find a way to end the state of hostility.

A purely economic agenda bears little risk of controversy but many opportunities for quick benefits to show voters. Yet, Ma also wants to follow any quick wins with longer-term progress. An aide who has been working on Ma's cross-strait policy agenda told Jane's: "Once we feel we are really getting somewhere, we broaden things to more sensitive political issues."

In the short term, Ma's security policy team hopes to get the green light from Washington for the 66 F-16 C/D multi-role aircraft requested from the United States, preferably before George W Bush leaves office. In the longer term its priorities will be strengthening Taiwan's anti-missile defences and C4ISR capabilities.

These military ties with the US remain a reason for unease in China. Nonetheless, the real challenge to cross-strait rapprochement will be foreign policy. China's leadership is under pressure not to create the impression at home that it is allowing Taiwan anything that could amount to sovereignty.

FORECAST

Any progress is likely to come in small steps, starting with building mutual trust through semi-official dialogue on purely economic issues. If everything goes smoothly, military confidence-building measures could come in 2012, while any broader agreement on ceasing hostilities is not to be expected until a second Ma term.