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The Case for Strategic Discipline During the Next Presidency


CV32
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It may well be wise to dust off your copies of Persian Incursion and possibly update them; an Iran strike is arguably back on the table - although it will depend on whether Israel's current PM survives the current corruption allegations and who replaces him.

 

I think that NATO vs. Russia is less likely - Clinton would be far more confrontational towards Russia for one thing. I personally doubt that Putin would invade the Baltic countries anyway if faced with sufficient chance that he'd face a protracted guerilla war from the Estonians. They invented Skype and have more mobile phones than people, so what they could do against an occupying force would be very 'interesting' to see.

 

US vs. China - probably an increased war of words, but both sides have too much to lose from a conventional war, let alone a nuclear one.

 

The bigger concern I have in the medium term is the continued existence of the United States in its current form. If Trump exits the scene by any other means than his natural death or term limits (impeachment, assassination or being declared incapable via the 25th Amendment), there are enough people with military-grade weaponry out there to make an uprising a serious problem in the US.

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I agree with the author's article that there must be a "better equilibrium point somewhere between rampant retrenchment and unbridled hegemonic primacy."

 

The unknowns include how other potential foes (Iran, China, Russia, etc) react to an American effort to find that balancing point, and then what will be the counter-reaction.

The bigger concern I have in the medium term is the continued existence of the United States in its current form. If Trump exits the scene by any other means than his natural death or term limits (impeachment, assassination or being declared incapable via the 25th Amendment), there are enough people with military-grade weaponry out there to make an uprising a serious problem in the US.


My own view of that is that thank goodness there are enough people in the USA with the will and the means to keep a "serious problem" from emerging.

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