From Aviation Week

 

U.S. Considering Shooting Down Satellite

Feb 12, 2008

By David A. Fulghum

 

U.S. officials are studying the possibility of shooting down the errant Lockheed Martin intelligence satellite that was launched into space for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).

 

The concern is that the spacecraft carries a full tank of hydrazine - a toxic propellant - that would have been used to reposition the satellite in orbit. Government analysts say the odds are that the tank will crack open during re-entry or than it will land in the ocean, which makes up 70% of the area where the breaking up satellite might land. There also is concern in some quarters that debris could reveal U.S. national security secrets if recovered by other nations. It is expected to re-enter the atmosphere late this month or in early March.

 

Analysts at the Missile Defense Agency and NRO have put hundreds of hours into analysis and have studied closely the accuracy of surveillance capabilities of U.S. radars in Japan, Alaska and possibly elsewhere to give more targeting options to those assessing the danger of the satellite falling to Earth.

 

A senior official with insight into the planning says that a rumor that the satellite carried a small, nuclear generator is "absolutely and totally incorrect." However, government agencies including MDA and NRO "are studying options that include" hitting the satellite with a weapon so that it breaks up in space - and ruptures the hydrazine tank -- before beginning its descent.

 

If the hydrazine tank did hit a populated area intact, and depending on winds and the dynamics of "plumeology," the impact could affect humans - perhaps kill some - out to a distance of "20-30 yards," the official says.

 

Aerospace Corp., a California-based research organization that regularly advises the Defense Department, has assembled some basic data about falling satellites and what can be done about them. "For an orbiting object, shooting it down actually breaks the object into many pieces, some of which could be hazardous to other satellites," says the Aerospace Corp. "Many of the fragments will survive re-entry, but be spread over a much larger area. The pros and cons for a specific case would need to be examined."

 

Re-entering objects, including major items such as satellites, platforms and rocket bodies have dropped 5,400 metric tons of material on the Earth in the past 40 years, the research group says.

 

However, "if a satellite or rocket body has propulsive capability, it can use rocket motor burns to target the re-entry into a desired area. The technique was recently used by NASA to ensure debris from the 14,000 kg. Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory landed in the ocean," it says.

 

As to the threat, "One person was brushed on the shoulder by a piece of debris in 1997. She was not injured. Large, hazardous fragments can survive, but in most cases, debris from re-entered objects is never found or reported," Aerospace said.

I've followed this story, and the cynic in me says that while the US should shoot it down as part of, or an extension of, an ABM system, they would hate to state that they were going to and then end up missing.

Tony had a good point (on IRC), just ask the Chinese to do it.

Tony had a good point (on IRC), just ask the Chinese to do it.

Probably be the most effective option.

Apparently the US has made it known that it will shoot it down in March.

 

Breaking New found here on MSNCB dot com

 

I wonder if I should stock up on duct tape and plastic sheets.

Background info on the satellite in question:

 

http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/systems/e-305.htm

 

http://www.skyrocket.de/space/doc_sdat/nrol-21.htm

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USA_193

From Defense Aerospace

 

DoD To Engage Decaying Satellite

(Source: US Department of Defense; issued Feb. 14, 2008)

 

An uncontrollable U.S. experimental satellite which was launched in December 2006 is expected to reenter Earth’s atmosphere between the end of February and early March. Because the satellite was never operational, analysis indicate that approximately 2,500 pounds (1134 kgs) of satellite mass will survive reentry, including 1,000 pounds (453 kgs) of propellant fuel (hydrazine), a hazardous material.

 

Although the chances of an impact in a populated area are small, the potential consequences would be of enough concern to consider mitigating actions. Therefore, the President has decided to take action to mitigate the risk to human lives by engaging the non-functioning satellite. Because our missile defense system is not designed to engage satellites, extraordinary measures have been taken to temporarily modify three sea-based tactical missiles and three ships to carry out the engagement.

 

Based on modeling and analysis, our officials have high confidence that the engagement will be successful. As for when this engagement will occur, we will determine the optimal time, location, and geometry for a successful engagement based on a number of factors. As the satellite’s path continues to decay, there will be a window of opportunity between late February and early March to conduct this engagement. The decision to engage the satellite has to be made before a precise prediction of impact location is available.

 

Contact with hydrazine is hazardous. Direct contact with skin or eyes, ingestion or inhalations from hydrazine released from the tank upon impact could result in immediate danger. If this operation is successful, the hydrazine will then no longer pose a risk to humans.

 

The U.S. government has been and continues to track and monitor this satellite. Various government agencies are planning for the reentry of the satellite. In the event the engagement is not successful, all appropriate elements of the U.S. Government are working together to explore options to mitigate the danger to humans and to ensure that all parties are properly prepared to respond. In the unlikely event satellite pieces land in a populated area, people are strongly advised to avoid the impact area until trained hazardous materials (HAZMAT) teams are able to properly dispose of any remaining hydrazine. (ends)

 

Navy to Shoot Down Malfunctioning Satellite

(Source: US Navy; issued Feb. 14, 2008)

 

WASHINGTON --- The Navy will shoot down a malfunctioning U.S. spy satellite sometime after Feb. 20, government officials said during a Pentagon news conference Feb. 14.

 

Ambassador James F. Jeffrey, assistant to the president and deputy national security advisor, said President George W. Bush decided to bring down the satellite because of the likelihood that the satellite could release hydrazine, a toxic chemical used as a maneuvering fuel.

 

"The likelihood of the satellite falling in a populated area is small, and the extent and duration of toxic hydrazine in the atmosphere would be limited," Jeffrey said. "Nevertheless, if the satellite did fall in a populated area, there was the possibility of death or injury to human beings beyond that associated with the fall of satellites and other space debris."

 

The window for shooting down the satellite opens in the next three or four days and remains open for as many as seven or eight days, said Marine Gen. James E. Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

 

NASA Administrator Michael Griffin said the study group looked carefully at increased risks to the shuttle and International Space Station and decided they are negligible. "We are very comfortable that this is a decision made carefully, objectively and safely," Griffin said.

 

Still, the Navy will not fire until after the shuttle Atlantis mission ends Feb. 20. In late January, the U.S. government notified other nations that the satellite was unresponsive and would make an uncontrolled re-entry in late February or early March.

 

The Navy has modified three SM-3 missiles aboard Aegis ships to strike the satellite, Cartwright said. The Navy wants to intercept the satellite at a point just above the atmosphere so there would be a high likelihood of bringing it down in an unpopulated area. An intercept also would rupture the hydrazine tank. The vice chairman would not say exactly where the ships would fire from, only saying it will be from the northern hemisphere and the Pacific Ocean.

 

Intercepting the satellite at about 130 nautical miles altitude will reduce the risk of debris in space. Once the satellite is hit, officials hope 50 percent of the debris will come to Earth in the first two orbits and the rest shortly thereafter, Cartwright said.

 

The satellite belongs to the National Reconnaissance Office and was launched Dec. 14, 2006. It weighs roughly 5,000 pounds, and computer models show that roughly 2,800 pounds would survive re-entry.

 

"What is different here is the hydrazine," Cartwright said. "In this case, we have some historical background that we can work against for the tank that contains the hydrazine. We had a similar one on Columbia that survived re-entry. We have a pretty reasonable understanding that, if the tank is left intact, it would survive the re-entry."

 

The tank is circular with a radius of 20 inches. It holds about 1,000 pounds of the fuel.

 

While details of the satellite are classified -- DoD officials will not release who built it or how much it costs -- that had no bearing on the decision to shoot it down, Cartwright said. The temperatures from re-entry would burn up any classified system on the satellite, he said.

 

Hydrazine is similar to chlorine or ammonia in that it affects lung tissue. People inhaling it would feel a burning sensation. "If you stay close to it and inhale a lot of it, it could be deadly," Cartwright said.

 

If the military did not shoot down the satellite, the hydrazine would disperse over an area roughly the size of two football fields, the general said. Those who breathed it would need medical attention.

 

"As we reviewed the data, if we fire at the satellite, the worst that could happen is that we miss," Cartwright said. "Then we have a known situation, which is where we are today."

 

Grazing the satellite would probably still bring it down quicker and more predictably, he said. "If we hit the hydrazine tank, then we've improved the potential to mitigate that threat," he said. "The regret factor of not acting clearly outweighed the regret factor of acting."

From Flight International

 

DATE: 15/02/08

SOURCE: Flightglobal.com

 

Pentagon to shoot down crippled spy satellite

By Graham Warwick

 

US Navy Aegis cruisers will attempt to shoot down a disabled spy satellite before it reenters the Earth's atmosphere in late February, to avoid the potential danger posed by its hazardous hydrazine rocket fuel.

 

It will be the first time the USA has tried to shoot down a satellite since September 1985, when a US Air Force Boeing F-15 launched an experimental anti-satellite missile that intercepted and destroyed an obsolete spacecraft.

 

The US government strongly criticised a Chinese anti-satellite test in 2007, which used a ground-launched interceptor, arguing the test resulted in a massive cloud of orbital debris that posed a danger to civilian spacecraft.

 

The Department of Defense says the "uncontrollable US experimental satellite" was launched in December 2006 and is expected to reenter the atmposphere between the end of February and early March.

 

Because the 5,000lb (2,250kg) imaging spacecraft lost power after launch, before it could use any of its thruster fuel, the DoD estimates that more than half its mass will survive reentry, including the tank containing 1,000lb of highly toxic hydrazine propellant.

 

"Although the chances of an impact in a populated area are small, the potential consequences would be of enough concern to consider mitigating actions," says the Pentagon.

 

The US Navy has temporarily modified three Aegis cruisers and three Raytheon Standard SM-3 surface-to-air missiles in the hope of getting two shots at the crippled satellite before it reenters. The DoD says it has "high confidence" the engagement will be successful.

 

"We will determine the optimal time, location and geometry for a successful engagement based on a number of factors," says the Pentagon. A seven- to eight-day window for the engagement opens after NASA's Space Shuttle Atlantis returns from space on 20 February.

 

The Navy wants to intercept the missile at a point just above the atmosphere where it will maximise likelihood of bringing the spacecraft down in an unpopulated area. The intent is to rupture the 20in-radius hydrazine tank.

 

From positions in the northern Pacific, the ships will attempt to intercept the satellite at 130nm altitude to reduce the risk of debris in space. If the satellite is hit, the DoD hopes half the debris will reenter in the first two orbits and the rest soon after.

 

The Standard SM-3 is part of the US Navy's Aegis ballistic missile defence system, which has scored 12 intercepts in 14 attempts against missile targets. The missile is equipped with an infrared-guided kinetic warhead. Not details of the modifications have been released.

From Aviation Week

 

U.S. To Shoot Down Satellite

Feb 17, 2008

By David A. Fulghum and Amy Butler

 

The U.S. Navy is specially modifying three advanced SM3 anti-ballistic missile interceptors to shoot down an electronically dead, intelligence-gathering satellite that was launched into space for the National Reconnaissance Organization (NRO).

 

Aviation Week broke the news on AviationWeek.com Feb. 12 that the U.S. was planning the shootdown.

 

Communications with the satellite were lost almost immediately, which means there’s no way of guiding the spacecraft to a predictable crash site as it returns from orbit, says Marine Corps Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The extraordinary decision to shoot it down was the result of analyses that show the satellite’s 40-in.-dia. hydrazine tank—now holding a 1,000-lb. frozen sphere of maneuvering propellant—will survive the descent. It will pose a lethal danger when it strikes the Earth, cracks open, and the frozen slush turns into a toxic gas, says James Jeffrey, White House deputy national security adviser. The effect on human lungs would be similar to ammonia or chlorine gas.

 

A hydrazine tank on the Columbia space shuttle survived its crash in Texas, but it was almost empty when it struck. The NRO satellite’s fuel, by comparison, has the potential to spread over an area as large as two football fields, they say. Odds are that the satellite will reenter the atmosphere and crash into the ocean, which makes up 70% of the Earth’s surface under the satellite’s orbit, the areas between 58.5 deg. N. and S. Lat. But U.S. officials, with the approval of President Bush, decided not to take the chance, since a 2,500-2,800-lb. mass from the satellite is expected to survive descent, Cartwright says.

 

The three Aegis ships involved in the intercept, from a launch site in the northern Pacific, will be “reconfigured on a one-time, reversible basis,” says Jeffrey. Even if the space defense missiles miss or misfire, the threat will be no greater, says NASA Administrator Michael Griffin. However, even if the missile only grazes the errant satellite, it will fall out of orbit faster, analysts contend. If they make a direct hit, the spacecraft is expected to fall into an unpopulated area, Cartwright says.

 

If the SM3 missile hits the satellite as it nears the atmosphere, more than 50% of the debris will reenter within two orbits, about 10-15 hr. Most of the remaining pieces would fall within a month, Cartwright says. It will be critical to hit the satellite before it enters the atmosphere, where its nonaerodynamic shape will cause it to tumble and be almost impossible to engage, he says. If the first SM3 misses, operators will reassess and try again with the backup missiles.

 

It is officially denied that debris from the payload could reveal secret new U.S. national security capabilities if satellite wreckage were recovered by another nation. But some analysts are less certain, given the experimental nature of the intelligence-gathering payload.

 

Pentagon officials and industry analysts are circumspect about the satellite’s mission capabilities. At least two sources with insight into the program say it’s not an imaging radar as some believed. The satellite was launched Dec. 14, 2006, on a Delta II, one of the smaller family of vehicles in the U.S. launcher inventory; key parts of this particular package are not sized for a traditional imaging radar satellite. “It’s not a radar,” says a longtime Pentagon radar expert. The Space Radar, for example—a program that was shifted from the U.S. Air Force to NRO in last year’s budget—was criticized because it would need a heavy booster, which would drive up costs.

 

It’s also thought not to be a product of NRO’s traditional imagery, signals or communications intelligence shops. Instead, it’s a smaller passive system—“not radar, optical or ladar”—that was cobbled together by the organization’s fast-development, advanced science and technology office, the aerospace official says. It also appears to be an offshoot of earlier NRO work on small, cheap, fast-reaction, imaging satellites. The U.S. is admittedly looking hard at how it could rapidly repopulate its intelligence-gathering satellite network if the current constellations are targeted by antisatellite weapons or network and electronic attack.

 

Nonetheless, the issue of the payload’s classification alone was not enough to justify breaking up the satellite with an interceptor missile, Cartwright says.

 

The inoperable satellite is expected to reenter the atmosphere late this month or in early March. Were the U.S. to try to destroy it before it reenters, Washington could easily provoke international outrage. Barely a year ago, China became only the third nation to demonstrate it can destroy a spacecraft in orbit when it shot down one of its own aging weather satellites (AW&ST Jan. 22, 2007, p. 22).

 

China’s antisatellite (Asat) test prompted diplomatic rebukes and caused a furor in space circles because it created a cloud of debris—including some that was propelled into higher orbits—that threaten other satellites.

 

This is the first time that the U.S. has used a tactical missile to attack a spacecraft, Cartwright says. The ability to make the hit just before the target enters the atmosphere, at about 130 naut. mi. altitude, is made possible by “minor modifications to software in the Aegis system and in the missile [when the satellite] will look most like a reentering missile,” he says.

 

Cartwright contends that the U.S. effort differs from the Chinese Asat test because of U.S. notification of foreign governments of the event and interception at low altitude. The Chinese satellite was destroyed at an altitude of 850 km. (460 naut. mi.), which ensures the debris will be in orbit for decades.

 

If by some mischance the hydrazine tank did hit a populated area intact, its rupture on impact, depending on winds and the dynamics of the plume of hydrazine, could kill humans out to a distance of “20-30 yards,” the official says. But any exposure would require medical care.

 

The Aerospace Corp., a federally funded research organization that advises the U.S. government on space, says that reentering objects—including major items such as satellites, platforms and rocket bodies—have dropped 5,400 metric tons of material on the Earth in the last 40 years.

From DefenseNews

 

Satellite Shoot-Down Attempt To Be Feb. 21: Report

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

Published: 18 Feb 22:07 EST (17:07 GMT)

 

WASHINGTON - The United States will take its first shot at an out-of-control spy satellite on Feb. 21, trying to knock it into the sea before it crashes to Earth, possibly causing damage, CNN news reported Feb. 18.

 

A second attempt would be possible if the first misses, the channel said, citing military sources. Pentagon officials were not immediately available for comment.

 

Without intervention, the crippled satellite is due to break into the Earth's atmosphere on March 6 and crash down at an unpredictable spot, risking rupturing its tanks of toxic fuel, U.S. authorities warned last week.

 

A U.S. warship will fire a surface-to-air missile at the satellite at a specific point in its orbit that ensures any Earth-bound debris will splash into the ocean.

 

The shoot-down plan drew criticism on Feb. 17 from Russia, whose defense ministry said in a statement it looked like a veiled weapons test and an "attempt to move the arms race into space."

 

Washington has denied seeking to cover up the satellite's technological secrets or to make a show of strength after China used a missile to shoot down an old weather satellite in January 2007.

From Aviation Week OnSpace Blog

 

Shootdown Simulation

Posted by Frank Morring, Jr. at 2/18/2008 8:04 PM

 

Here's an interesting simulation prepared by orbital-debris experts at Analytical Graphics, an Exton, Pa.-based software firm, illustrating what would happen to debris from the upcoming shootdown of an errant National Reconnaissance Office satellite.

 

Click here for the simulation.

 

In the simulation, one of the three Aegis-equipped air-defense warships assigned the task fires a Standard Missile-3 -- modified to go after the satellite instead of an incoming missile warhead -- and makes the kill.

 

Using debris modeling and prediction software, Analytical Graphics shows a possible debris track after the impact. Based on statistical spacecraft models, the green dots in the simulation represent the debris as it falls out of orbit, turning to red dots as it reenters and burns up.

 

The U.S. government says it is attempting the shootdown to prevent about 1,000 pounds of toxic hydrazine propellant in a satellite tank from causing possible injury or death if it falls in a populated area. The shootdown task force will make the shot from an undisclosed spot in the northern Pacific Ocean, probably as early as Wednesday night Eastern Standard Time based on warnings to aircraft in the area.

Breaking news reported over on msnbc.com that there has been a launch and a hit.

From Navy Times

 

Navy hits wayward satellite on first attempt

By Zachary M. Peterson - Staff Writer

Posted : Wednesday Feb 20, 2008 23:45:04 EST

 

The Navy cruiser Lake Erie successfully shot down a malfunctioning spy satellite Wednesday night over the Pacific Ocean.

 

At 10:26 p.m. EST the Lake Erie fired a Standard Missile-3 at 133 nautical miles over the Pacific Ocean, according to the Pentagon. The SM-3 traveled at approximately 17,000 mph, a Defense Department statement said.

 

The objective of the shot was to take out the satellite’s fuel tank which contains about 1,000 pounds of hydrazine, a hazardous fuel that could pose a danger to people if it hit land, the DoD release noted.

 

Confirmation that the fuel tank was hit should be available in 24 hours, according to the Pentagon. The debris from the satellite will begin to re-enter the atmosphere immediately, the Pentagon said.

 

“Nearly all of the debris will burn up on reentry within 24-48 hours and the remaining debris should re-enter within 40 days,” the DoD statement said.

 

The destroyers Decatur and Russell also took part in the engagement, providing long range surveillance and tracking, the Pentagon noted.

 

Defense Secretary Robert Gates was supposed to give the final go ahead for the launch after receiving information from the U.S. Strategic Command chief Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton, a senior military official told reporters at the Pentagon on Wednesday morning prior to the shoot.

 

The Pentagon first became aware of the potentially dangerous re-entry of the satellite early this year, according to press reports. The satellite, known as USA 193, experienced problems upon launch in 2006 and is roughly the size of school bus, DoD officials confirmed.

 

It took the Navy about six weeks to make the necessary modifications to the missiles and radars to “take it to sea with some degree of confidence,” a Navy official said Tuesday at a press briefing.

 

The Navy had no prior capability to shoot down satellites and had previously “not explored that,” the source added.

 

[Apparently they intend to de-convert the remaining two SM-3 missiles to their previous BMD role, but one would think they'd want to keep a couple of these ASAT SM-3s on hand. Perhaps they will. ]

From Navy Times

 

Lake Erie CO describes anti-satellite shot

By Zachary M. Peterson - Staff writer

Posted : Friday Feb 22, 2008 17:34:18 EST

 

Only a small group of sailors and a small team of government and industry experts knew the nature of the cruiser Lake Erie’s mission when the ship left port in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on Feb. 14.

 

As the ship began steaming northwest, the news that a Navy ship would attempt to shoot down an errant spy satellite was breaking at the Pentagon. Capt. Randy Hendrickson, the skipper of Lake Erie, told Navy Times via telephone that he waited until the ship was at sea to call an all-hands meeting and inform his crew of 360 sailors what they were about to attempt. Until then, all the crew knew was that it was training for an unspecified mission, the captain said.

 

The ship spent four days conducting rehearsals, Hendrickson said, prior to steaming to its launch site in the ocean. The ship arrived on station northwest of Hawaii a “few hours prior to launch” Feb. 20, the skipper said.

 

“[We] were granted weapons release authority, and the crew performed superbly,” he said. “They were very calm.”

 

The SM-3 was launched, and there were cheers in the control room as the missile hit “dead center to the basket,” Hendrickson said. “We could see the radar as filled with debris.”

 

After the shot, the crew and a team of about 30 government and industry experts began conducting the lethality analysis, Hendrickson said. As the civilian team did the analysis and advised the crew, the sailors manned all the equipment, Hendrickson explained.

 

“The crew was very astute to what they were doing,” he said.

 

The missile launch was the fifth SM-3 the ship had launched since April 2007. The other four missiles were launched as part of the Missile Defense Agency’s sea-based ballistic missile defense tests.

 

Pacific Fleet commander Adm. Robert Willard called Hendrickson on the radio to congratulate the Lake Erie on what appeared to be a successful shot, the skipper said. Hendrickson also received e-mails from Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Gary Roughead and Strategic Command chief Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton.

 

Defense Secretary Robert Gates gave the final go-ahead for the launch after receiving information from Chilton about eight hours prior to the launch, Marine Gen. James Cartwright, vice Joint Chiefs chairman, told reporters at the Pentagon the morning after the shot.

 

The satellite carried hydrazine, a toxic fuel, which Pentagon officials said would make its re-entry dangerous. The satellite, known as USA 193, experienced problems upon launch in 2006 and was roughly the size of school bus.

 

As the Lake Erie steamed back toward Pearl Harbor, Hendrickson said the crew plans a “little celebration” of the first-of-its-kind shot. The party will be conducted “moderately and modestly,” he added.

 

It took the Navy about six weeks to make the necessary modifications to the missiles and radars to “take it to sea with some degree of confidence,” a Navy official said Feb. 19 at a press briefing.

 

The Navy had no prior capability to shoot down satellites and had previously “not explored that,” the source added.

 

Cartwright called the shot a “one-time thing” the morning after the missile hit. He said he does not anticipate satellite shoots becoming a regular mission for the military. Because of the hazardous nature of the fuel carried aboard USA 193, Cartwright said “it would have been irresponsible” not to reduce some of the risk of harmful materials hitting land.

 

In response to suggestions that the satellite shot would be a boon to the Pentagon’s nascent missile-defense capabilities, Cartwright said the only “elements of missile defense” involved in the shot were in the sensors, instrumentation and software used in the test.

 

“This was a one-time modification,” he said.

 

Hendrickson said his crew returned from a Pacific deployment last summer and is “well-versed” in many forms of operations. Nonetheless, he admitted the satellite shot “pushed its limits.”