From Flight International

 

DATE:31/07/07

SOURCE:Flightglobal.com

Japan mulls over indigenous stealth fighter

By Siva Govindasamy

 

Japan has started a study to develop next-generation stealth technology, which if successful could lead to the production of its first indigenous fighter in almost 30 years and give it a long-coveted ability to counter China's growing air power.

 

The study, however, could also be a way of putting pressure on the USA to release information about the Lockheed Martin F-22. Japan is one of the few countries that can afford the Raptor's $200 million price tag, but US Congress has banned export sales of the aircraft due to its use of secretive equipment.

 

"We have not decided if we will build a prototype aircraft," says Japan's defence ministry, which confirms that the study started several months ago. "Of course, we are interested in next-generation technology and advanced fighters with stealth capabilities. But we have not decided on how we will get it."

 

The ministry must formally request funding, possibly for the 2008-9 fiscal year, if it wishes to advance the project, but it would take several years and require significant research and development investment to acquire the technology.

 

Domestic airframe manufacturers such as Kawasaki Heavy Industries and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries would be involved, although it would be difficult for them to start from scratch without outside help.

 

"Only American companies like Lockheed or Boeing have access to technology like this, so it would be difficult without them on board," says a Tokyo-based analyst. "Even the Russians have been trying hard for many years without much success. It would be a gargantuan effort for Japan to be successful."

 

The easier way, say observers, would be for Japan to buy aircraft directly from the USA, and add that the study could be Tokyo's way of putting pressure on its ally to allow access to the Raptor.

 

Lockheed, which wants to keep its F-22 production line open, is believed to be keen on a sale to Japan, but must first convince Congress. Japan's defence minister earlier this year asked his US counterpart for data on the Raptor, raising the issue from the military to the political level.

 

"Japan is sending a clear signal - it wants stealth technology and it would prefer to get it from the USA," says another industry observer. "But it is saying that it is prepared to go alone if it needs to."

 

The source believes that Washington will eventually give Tokyo access to the F-22, although that may not come in time for Japan's McDonnell Douglas F-4 replacement schedule.

 

Tokyo plans to issue a request for proposals by year-end, with a contract to be awarded by the end of 2008 and the first aircraft to be in service during the 2009-10 fiscal year.

 

Besides its interest in the F-22, Japan is also evaluating Boeing's F-15 and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, the Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon and Lockheed's F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

From Aviation Week

 

Japan Chooses an Offense

Aug 5, 2007

By David Fulghum and Bradley Perrett

 

A low-key, but so far uncompromising, campaign is underway in Japan to add stealth to the nation’s defense arsenal by acquiring the Lockheed Martin F-22. The rationale for buying the fighter—little talked about, but central to the debate—is missile defense.

 

In its latest move—a decision to accelerate upgrades of its F-15J Eagles and operate them longer—Japan is buying more time for its campaign to get the Raptor.

 

Despite the country’s own ban on offensive capabilities, Japanese and U.S. planners say the only effective ballistic and cruise missile defense of Japan must include the ability to penetrate enemy air defenses to strike missiles before they can be launched.

 

Hawk and Patriot missiles and Aegis air defense ships aren’t enough to stop all the ballistic and low-visibility cruise missiles, say military and aerospace industry officials. Some of them also contend that nonstealthy aircraft can’t penetrate an integrated air defense if it includes double-digit surface-to-air missiles like the Russian-designed SA-10, SA-20 and SA-22.

 

An air force must at least be able to attack the launch sites “to put an offensive ballistic missile capability at risk,” a senior U.S. Air Force official involved in the debate says. “You’ve got to get out in front of [cruise and ballistic] missile launches. Otherwise, some are going to get through.”

 

F-22 pilots hint at the fighter’s capabilities.

 

“I can understand why the Japanese are concerned,” says Lt. Col. Wade Tolliver, commander of the 27th Fighter Sqdn. that deployed its F-22s to Okinawa earlier this year. “There are significant [strike fighter and missile] threats out there, and it’s not just one particular country that has the really good systems. There are countries that are developing these very advanced aircraft and missiles and selling them to anybody that has the money. That’s scary.

 

“We do have cruise missile defense capability,” he says. “The reality of the Air Force is that we try to train to the highest threat. It’s not just today’s war that we’re fighting.”

 

U.S. aerospace industry officials say they are beginning to see a plan in Japan’s actions since Congress recently prohibited foreign F-22 sales.

 

“There are big [defense and industry] issues,” says an aerospace industry official with insight into several Japanese projects. “The military can delay the F-X fighter selection if the F-4EJs could be kept flying a little longer. The issue will be having something for industry to build. F-2 production is about to stop and another platform is needed.” The upshot is that Japan may delay the F-X decision, but it can’t wait too long because of the resulting pressure from the country’s industrial base.

 

There’s also an interesting angle to the radar upgrades of Japan’s F-15J fleet. Until now, the project has run at a snail’s pace. Only a few F-15Js have been updated with Raytheon’s APG-63(v)1 radar. It has a digital, fiber-optic avionics package, but a conventional, mechanically scanned antenna limits surveillance speed, range and the number of targets that can be tracked. The Japanese parliament funded the upgrade of just eight F-15s in fiscal years 2004-06, and there was no further request in the fiscal 2007 budget.

 

But officials now say the fiscal 2008 budget may provide money for more upgrades. The reason is that the technology is a path to the world of network-centric warfare that has already been used by the U.S. Air Force. USAF first adopted the (v)1 radar but then upgraded it with a 21st century emitter and antenna—the 1,000-element, active electronically scanned array (AESA). That improvement, designated the APG-63(v)3, produces a radar with the ability to see small targets, such as cruise missiles, or to identify tactical ballistic missile launchers in their radar-generated ground maps. The radar also can transmit large files of imagery, electronically attack enemy sensors through jamming and insertion of false targets, and provide two-way digital connectivity to other aircraft and sensors in the battlespace.

 

“The Japanese could make that shift to (v)3 at any time,” the industry official says.

 

That shift would add another option to the decision about a new fighter for the Japanese air force. F-15s equipped with AESA would have a larger radar aperture than the F-22. As a result, in the defensive, anti-cruise missile role, the Eagle would have an advantage in detecting smaller objects at longer range because of its additional power and size. While attacking missile launch sites with the F-22 is a “strategically solid concept” for the long term, buying interim, AESA-equipped F-15Es or F/A-18E/Fs might be attractive to Japanese defense planners. So far, they have rejected the idea of a bridge aircraft.

 

However, Japan is now reordering its priorities and will accelerate upgrades of its F-15Js. The 200-odd Eagles also will stay in service longer, according to a budget plan that’s clearly designed to allow the country to later renew its push for F-22s, despite the U.S. House Appropriations Committee’s decision last month to maintain the export ban.

 

Japan is also deferring the Kawasaki Heavy Industries C-X transport project by a year, releasing at least some of the money needed for the F-15 upgrade.

 

Japan says it also will delay a decision on its F-X program by one year and would look at prolonging the service lives of the aircraft it’s designed to directly replace, 91 F-4 Phantoms.

 

Meanwhile, the F-22 Raptor is stretching its intercontinental legs. In doing so, the stealth fighter is accumulating evidence that it’s becoming even more valued for advanced intelligence-gathering, electronic warfare prowess and the role of on-the-scene organizer of aerial combat than for its payload of missiles and bombs.

 

These public demonstrations of the F-22’s rapidly expanding capabilities are increasing Japan’s insistence—as a loyal ally and provider of air, sea and intelligence bases for the U.S.—that it be allowed to buy and operate the F-22 as a continuation of its policy of flying the most advanced fighters in the world. That legacy began with the F-86 Saber family and continued most recently with the F-4 Phantom II and F-15J Eagle. In fact, U.S. industry officials remember a similar confrontation over whether Japan would get the Eagle. In the end, Japan had operational F-15s within a year of the fighter’s debut with the U.S. Air Force.

 

“I think the Japan Air Self-Defense Force analysis of what’s needed for the F-X will roll air-to-air and air-to-ground together as a lesson learned from U.S. operations,” says the U.S. Air Force official. “Japan had a bad experience with the F-2. It cost them a lot of money—about twice the price of an F-16—but with about the same capability. As a result, they’ve had no involvement with the Joint Strike Fighter and F-22.”

 

Complicating the issue (besides the congressional prohibition against selling F-22s abroad) are a leak of Aegis radar technology through a noncommissioned officer at the Japanese naval academy and a statement by the chief of Pacific Command, Adm. Timothy Keating, that he doesn’t support a sale.

 

But Defense Dept. and industry officials say there’s an even stronger argument for making the technology available to Japan. Despite the security breach, they say Japan is known to keep defense secrets better than almost any of the nation’s allies. In fact, before the amalgamation of East and West Germany, West German defense test facilities were considered a funnel for classified data to East German intelligence. For that matter, the biggest defense leaks have come from U.S. employees of the FBI, CIA and Defense Dept.

 

Another consideration is that the most important secrets on the F-22 are embedded in its software and encompass the F-22’s electronic attack and surveillance, information operations and long-range targeting capabilities. These can be made tamper-proof (although the additional cost is being estimated at around $500 million). Certainly reverse engineering of U.S. technology has produced poor results. The Russians, for example, have had the wreckage of the F-117 shot down in Serbia during the Kosovo campaign for eight years. Russian engineers told Aviation Week & Space Technology editors that they found the aircraft pieces interesting but only marginally useful. So far, Soviet stealth capabilities are extremely limited and hindered by high costs. However, stealth is appearing in small scale on ship- and air-launched cruise missiles.

 

U.S. officials—Keating being a high-profile exception—say it’s important to supply the Japanese with advanced technology because they’ve agreed with the U.S. to field a joint missile defense program. They also have agreed to allow U.S. aircraft on five additional air bases in case a force surge is needed for a military emergency in the region.

 

“The Japanese will continue to make the point that it’s important to really scrutinize exactly why the F-22 is not for sale,” says a senior USAF official. “It becomes a very significant discussion between the leadership of the two countries [that is] tied to the future strength of the alliance. I’ve advised our leadership that [the decision to sell or not sell] has policy implications that can’t be ignored. We are signed up to defend Japan at the same level as the continental U.S. F-22 is a big issue.”