A couple of quick questions...

 

First, on a scale of 1 to 10 (with 10 being "This will happen" and 1 being "Not in a million years"), how likely is it that we might see an Iran-style Islamic revolution in Turkey and Egypt by, say, 2016?

 

Second, assuming these revolutions happened, on a scale of 1 to 10, how likely are the following events (either as isolated events or as a cluster of related, perhaps coordinated events)...

 

A) Egypt does not close the Suez Canal, but does raise fees and starts making many costly and time-consuming inspections of ships from countries it does not like--in effect, they are waging economic war against the E.U., Israel, etc.

 

Egypt attacks and/or invades (and tries to occupy) Libya

 

C) Turkey invades and occupies Cyprus, establishing a Turkish Cypriot Republic (whose ports and airfields are suddenly full of Turkish ships and aircraft).

 

D) Egypt and Turkey make a joint attack on Israel

 

E) Egypt and Turkey make a joint attack on Syria (and possibly Lebanon and/or Jordan), seeking to become the joint de facto rulers of the region

 

F) Following C, D, and/or E, assuming there was a hostile response from the E.U., the alliance of Turkey and Egypt responds by attacking targets in Greece, Italy, and possibly the south of France, primarily intending to sink their navies, wreck their air forces, etc. so they cannot attack them in the future (as opposed to trying to actually invade Greece, Italy, etc., which seems truly unlikely)

 

Third, are there any other events that you think are likely to happen if Egypt and Turkey experienced an Islamic revolution? What did I miss?

 

Thanks.

 

Mark

Only a partial answer, because I'm testing the new forum: both in Egypt and Turkey are now Islamic revolutions, with islamic parties in both governments. 10 is probably the answer for the first question for the 2016 situation.

A) The Suez Canal: I suspect it's not now as important as pre-1967. After 1967 were developed very large tanker not Suez canal capable, and the World is now more dependent of them as of the pre-1967 size tankers.

C) I'm not aware of the real state of the question in Cyprus, but I suspect that's also another current reality in a matter of days, if the case for Turkey is a must.

D, E, F) I'dont see Turkey and Egypt as allies, the alliances between islamic and/or arabic states are little stable in time and space, and also, I suppose a historic rivalry between Turkey and Egypt, because the centuries of occupation of Egypt by the Ottoman Empire.

And, as sayed, the Islamic revolution is now instaured in the governments of Egypt and Turkey, trying to blow-out the previous laicity of both States.

Okay, that good to know...Egypt and Turkey will follow their own agendas (as all nations do) but are unlikely to work together.

 

In fact, is is possible that one would try to prevent the other, just on the basis of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"--for example, Turkey attacks Syria and Egypt is one of the first to defend Syria, a fellow Arab country, from outside aggression (even if they were thinking of invading, too)?

 

I suppose the real question is...on a scale of 1 to 10, how likely is it that Turkey and Egypt will become increasingly aggressive, either against the West or against other Arab nations in the region that are seen as rivals, threats, etc.? (And, in the case of Turkey, perhaps against other Black Sea nations, too.)

 

A related question...how well does Egypt get along with Iran? How likely is a military alliance between these two nations? On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely is it they might ally against and attack or invade Saudi Arabia or one or more of othe other Gulf states like Oman?

 

So, revised scenarios...

 

1) Turkey invades Cyprus...goes to war with Greece and perhaps the rest of the EU.

 

2) Egypt attacks or invades Libya

 

3) Egypt and Iran attack or invade Saudi Arabia or other Gulf States

 

4) Egypt (with or without Iran) attacks Israel

 

5) Turkey attacks and/or invades Syria

 

6) Turkey attacks Israel <-- I'm not sure this one is very likely...even if Turkey becomes radicalized, what would they gain from attacking Israel...of course, you could ask the same thing about Iran so I suppose it is not totally implausible...

 

7) Turkey attacks Bulgaria and/or other Black Sea nations

 

8) Egypt closes the Suez Canal to European shipping...EU responds with military force

 

How likely are these scenarios? What others seem likely?

I don't see Egypt working with Iran. Egypt is Sunni country, when Iran is Shia.Furthermore, Egypt hosts Al Azar University, the most prominent university in Sunni world, kinda Harvard for religion.Right now, Egypt, even though it's ruled by Muslim Brotherhood, criticizes ongoing slaughters in Syria, the latter having a strong sponsor called Iran...

 

FG