The Associated Press has confirmed when the Iranians will cross the Suez Canal.

Suez Canal officials say two Iranian naval vessels are expected to start their passage through the strategic waterway early Tuesday.

 

Canal officials say the ships are expected to pay a fee of $290,000 for the crossing. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they aren't authorized to speak publicly about the matter.

 

If the ships make the passage, it would mark the first time in three decades that Iranian military ships have traveled the canal that links the Red Sea to the Mediterranean.

It seems pretty clear that from the Iranian point of view, this is a communication exercise. Timing for Tuesday, they are hoping for maximum impact to make the headlines on Tuesday as folks get back to work after a three day weekend.

 

The question isn't if anyone will do anything - the US Navy guarantees freedom of the seas to the world, including Iran. The question is whether people will overreact politically to news of the transit. Keep in mind, it is to the advantage of Israel and Iran for the US markets to overreact, because impacts to our markets give cover to politicians who support Israel's claim the Iranian Naval movements are bad for the US. I

 

don't see any scenario where the US Navy reacts to the Iranians in any way. I will never to presume to know what Israel will do when it comes to Iran.

 

For those who are curious, yes, I do believe the purpose of the Iranian naval force is to deliver weapons for Hezbollah in Lebanon. This voyage is expensive for Iran, so I am thinking there must be a payoff in it somewhere otherwise it wouldn't be done.

 

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I doubt the mission task could be to sunk the transport ship in front of the Israeli coast and later to detonate the ship, configured as a dirty heavy water bomb (a ship configured as a heavy water bomb and detonated below the sea in front of a enemy country and obliterate it with a tsunami was an idea exposed in Popular Mechanics in the 1960s, but I don't find now the reference).

Looking for the heavy water bomb in a merchant ship. Only finded this nostalgic article in Life magazine by the same Vannevar Bush about atomic bombs in merchant ships: http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=90wEAAA...mp;q&f=fals