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On Sunday’s Midrats Podcast, our guest Liz Buchanan mentioned an article out of Australia by Laura Tingle, China's parade of military might raises big questions about the AUKUS muddle. I gave it a read and thought it would be a good move to start the week with it. Yes, it is Tuesday and not Monday, but I’m having “a moment.” Bear with me for the next 10 days or so. Tingle covers a lot of ground here, and she suffers a bit of a foreigner’s incomplete understanding of Trump World, but I’d like to put that to the side and focus on a welcome Australian view of the present state of play WRT AUKUS. For an island nation roughly the size of the continental USA with a population between Texas and Florida, I can think of fewer force multipliers that fit her requirements better than SSN, but she can’t get there on her own with a GDP just a bit more than Florida. For the new readers and to refresh things for the regulars, let’s go back almost exactly four years ago (a period of time longer than the USA’s participation in WWII) when this kicked off. Here is what I had to say back in September of 2021, and my opinion has not changed. One thing I hope so much for is that we make this as affordable as possible for Australia. I would hope we give it to them at cost. No reason to try to get any of the development cost whichever direction the build goes. Helping build the infrastructure to support nuclear submarines will benefit everyone, and especially Australia - a nation that is a natural to go nuclear power for both green energy and other reasons - something this military effort could help kickstart. As I outlined at the time, with my math, the floor was four boats with a HMAS stamp on them, and a ceiling of eight. I’ve also stated repeatedly that the serious people at The Pentagon need to tell the people in the submarine community to shut up and color. There are more important things on the line than the number of operational Commander Command slots in play. For a whole host of reasons, sooner more than later we simply need to take out non-FIVE EYES equipment from an “USS” and spot-weld “HMAS” on the damn thing. Should everything go pear-shaped in the Pacific, a HMAS SSN will be 90% as useful to the USA as an USS SSN. The greater utility, however, is the peacetime messaging of partnership with our closest allies by remembering something our fathers—well at least my father—taught us all, “Your word is your bond, especially with your friends.” Our friends, fairly, are not that confident. Peter Briggs is a former submariner and commander of the Royal Australian Submarine Squadron. He also believes Australia should have nuclear-powered submarines, so is not against the idea in principle. But he has been increasingly critical of the whole AUKUS submarine proposal. In a devastating analysis this week, he says the AUKUS plan "is now a threat to both the US and Australia's submarine capabilities". He says the US Navy's attack submarine force "is shrinking faster than anticipated" and notes that the US has other priorities in its submarine building program than the Virginia Class subs we are supposed to be getting. Building 12 new Columbia class submarines is the US's top priority, he says, and plans to build larger versions of the Virginia will only slow things down further. He’s not wrong. That dozen number is problematic. Here’s what I wrote on that fifteen and a half (yes, 15.5) years ago, I'll call it now, we will be lucky if we get 10 SSBN(X). Make that a planning assumption. If you need more SSN than your resources can deliver, then take the risk with your number of SSBN. There are not that many other options. To get to the number 10, I didn’t even weigh in on the developing critical issues with our shipbuilding and repair capabilities for our submarine industry, a problem appreciated for a long time without adequate action…and here we are. The target of building "a Columbia each year and two of the larger Virginias would require at least a threefold increase in submarine construction tonnage compared with annual average build of 1.14 smaller versions of the Virginia actually achieved over the last 21 years", he says. Everyone I talk to will ID the problem, but we have yet to see movement to solve it anytime soon. The target of building "a Columbia each year and two of the larger Virginias would require at least a threefold increase in submarine construction tonnage compared with annual average build of 1.14 smaller versions of the Virginia actually achieved over the last 21 years", he says. "Compared to the US Navy's target of delivering two Virginias each year over this period, that is a cumulative shortfall of 18 [nuclear powered submarines]." Add in Australia's demands and it gets even worse. Instead of its target of having 66 attack submarines, the US "has 47 or less now and is heading towards 41 or less in my estimate", Briggs says. "With luck, the current Pentagon [Colby] review of AUKUS will reach this obvious conclusion and withdraw from this plan. Failing that we will continue until reality hits, when the next president declares the US national interest outweighs the 'best endeavours' we are now relying on." This is where the narrowly blinkered submarine community’s priorities not to share its toys, that have too many ears taking in their points unchallenged, are merging—or appearing to merge—with a foundational undercurrent in the Trump Administration. It would be a strategic mistake of profound proportions for the USA to not follow through with AUKUS’s SSNs. If we did make that mind-numbing error, the Australians don’t really have the mother country to fall back on. Her problems sound familiar. Briggs is almost more pessimistic about the UK submarines we are supposed to eventually get ever leaving the design board. Plan B, he says, should be just one class of submarine, a mature design which will have to be built in Australia simply because neither the UK nor US has the capacity to build them. If the UK isn’t a valid “Plan-B”—then what is? Of course. "There are two obvious options," he says, "a Virginia derivative or [wait for it] the French Suffren." Of course, the French sub would be able to come as it is already configured — as a nuclear-powered vessel — not having to go through all the contortions of turning it into a diesel powered one as had been originally suggested. Briggs dismisses the idea that changing at this late stage would inject further delay: "It will mostly likely be quicker." Nobody wants that. The French would be insufferable. Tingle does not end on a happy note. I hope a concerted effort is made to make her wrong. Whatever the actual strategic vulnerabilities, and money wasted, White says the failure of process involved in the AUKUS muddle is likely to have scholars shaking their heads for years in terms of how this could have been allowed to happen. A failure, he says, which makes Robodebt — and government ministers' failure to take corrective steps — look like leadership in action by comparison. Instead, Australia plods along, trying to convince itself that all will be well. And without one leader prepared to say that we now have little choice but to take our own independent strategic path. Let’s give Laura Tingle a pleasant surprise, and the People’s Republic of China a headache, and make AUKUS happen, sooner rather than later. This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. 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Israel-based defense company Rafael Advanced Defense Systems introduced the IRON BEAM 450 high-energy laser weapon system Tuesday at the opening of the DSEI defense exhibition in London. The system is designed to intercept and destroy a wide range of aerial threats with precision, near-zero per-interception cost, and minimal collateral impact. According to Rafael, the new […] The post Rafael unveils next-gen laser weapon at DSEI first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

A top-secret US government body called the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has launched a new initiative aimed at transforming battlefield trauma care through the use of autonomous robotic systems. The Medics Autonomously Stopping Hemorrhage (MASH) program seeks to address one of the most lethal and complex medical challenges on the battlefield: non-compressible torso […] The post DARPA aims to build robotic combat surgeons first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

U.S. Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 232 (VMFA-232), known as the “Red Devils,” arrived at Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Iwakuni, Japan, on September 8, 2025, as part of the U.S. Marine Corps’ Unit Deployment Program (UDP). The F/A-18 Hornet squadron, based out of MCAS Miramar, California, is now assigned to Marine Aircraft Group 12, 1st […] The post U.S. Marine Corps deploys Red Devils squadron to Japan first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

The U.S. Army has awarded a new $26 million Other Transaction Authority (OTA) agreement to Lockheed Martin Rotary and Mission Systems and its consortium of non-traditional technology partners to accelerate development of its Next Generation Command and Control (NGC2) initiative. The project will deliver a data integration prototype for the 25th Infantry Division, currently operating […] The post U.S. Army taps Lockheed for next-gen command tech first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

More than 100 M2A3 Bradley Fighting Vehicles are heading to Poland as the U.S. Army ramps up its latest rotational deployment in support of European allies. The 1st Cavalry Division is providing troops from the 3rd Brigade Combat Team’s 2nd Battalion, 7th Cavalry Regiment for the mission, while logistics units across Europe have prepared the […] The post U.S. Army strengthens NATO frontier with Bradleys first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

At the Defence and Security Equipment International (DSEI) exhibition, Swedish fiber optics manufacturer Micropol introduced a new field-deployable solution designed to accelerate and simplify the testing of tactical fiber networks. The product, called OptiScan, is engineered specifically for rugged military and defense environments where communication uptime is critical. According to the company, OptiScan enables “fast […] The post Micropol debuts OptiScan for fast fiber testing first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

U.S. Marines with I Marine Expeditionary Force (I MEF) have completed a 12-day testing period for commercial small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS), working in close partnership with the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) and private industry. The evaluations, part of Phase 2 of the DIU’s G.I. Challenge, were held from August 18 to 29 and are […] The post U.S. Marines field-test new combat drones first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger confirmed plans to deliver mobile drone defense systems to Ukraine before the end of 2025. In an exclusive interview with Germany’s ZDF-Magazin WISO, Papperger said the deal—valued in the “three-digit million” euro range—will be signed on Wednesday at the Defence and Security Equipment International (DSEI) show in London. The systems in […] The post Rheinmetall to supply Skyrangers to Ukraine first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

French defense firm Arquus has begun delivering its new-generation light tactical vehicle, the PEGASE, to units including the 11th Parachute Brigade. In a statement posted September 8, Arquus said the vehicle represents a “major capability leap” for French forces. The company emphasized that the PEGASE was designed to meet the demands of elite units operating […] The post French elite forces receive first PEGASE vehicles first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

British defense engineering firm Supacat has secured its first export contract with the Czech Ministry of Defense for 18 HMT Mk3 Extenda high-mobility vehicles, a system known in the UK as the Jackal 3 Extenda. The platforms will be delivered to the Czech Army’s 601st Special Forces Group, a premier rapid response and special reconnaissance […] The post Czech military buys Jackal 3 vehicles first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

The U.S. Navy has awarded Raytheon, a business under RTX, a $205 million contract for continued production and support of the Phalanx Close-In Weapon System (CIWS), a key point-defense system deployed across the Navy’s surface fleet. The contract, announced September 8, includes upgrades, overhauls, conversions, and the delivery of related equipment as part of a […] The post U.S. Navy awards Raytheon $205M contract for Phalanx systems first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

In the wake of Ukraine’s successful strikes on the Russian Black Sea Fleet using low-cost, agile unmanned surface vessels (USVs), the global defense community has shifted focus to a domain once considered niche. Yet, long before Kyiv’s sea drones earned battlefield credibility, a little-known American platform had already proven its potential — and was quietly […] The post U.S. Navy had a war-ready naval drone in the ’90s — and scrapped it first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

General Dynamics European Land Systems (GDELS) has announced a major expansion of its armored vehicle production and support infrastructure in Germany, aiming to manufacture up to 500 Piranha wheeled armored vehicles and 500 Eagle V protected vehicles per year for the German Armed Forces. The announcement was made by Thomas Kauffmann, Vice President of GDELS […] The post GDELS scales up armored vehicle production in Germany first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council and former president Dmitry Medvedev accused Finland of preparing a forward staging area for an attack on Russia, citing Helsinki’s NATO membership and growing defense cooperation with the alliance. Medvedev claimed that Finland had “taken a course toward preparing for war” under the guise of defensive measures. “It is […] The post Russia accuses Finland of preparing for War first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

China is preparing to equip its navy’s submarines with a new scramjet-powered hypersonic cruise missile, known as the YJ-19. Mockups of the YJ-19 hypersonic missile, publicly displayed for the first time during the parade in Beijing attended by Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, point to […] The post China to arm submarines with new hypersonic missile first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

ICEYE and the Finnish Defence Forces have finalized a €158 million ($185 million) contract for the acquisition of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellites. The agreement, signed on September 8 in Tampere by Brigadier General Engineering Juha-Matti Ylitalo of the Finnish Defence Forces Logistics Command and Seppo Aaltonen, Vice President Nordics & NATO at ICEYE, follows […] The post Finland signs $185M deal with ICEYE for SAR satellites first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

The United States will provide Ukraine with 65 Mobile Strike Force Vehicles (MSFV) under a new round of military assistance funded through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), according to a report from Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi. The vehicles will be manufactured by Textron Systems Corporation, which will also supply spare parts to support ongoing […] The post U.S. to send 65 MSFV armored vehicles to Ukraine first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

BMT has introduced a new conceptual warship design, ELLIDA STRIKE, aimed at shaping the future of the UK Royal Navy’s amphibious strike capabilities. Announced on September 8, the concept showcases what a next-generation multi-role platform could offer in support of forward-deployed commando forces and evolving maritime operations. According to BMT, the ELLIDA STRIKE is not […] The post BMT reveals vision for multi-role strike ship first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

BIRD Aerosystems has secured a new contract from the Israeli Ministry of Defense to develop and deliver an upgraded Airborne Missile Protection System (AMPS) for integration onto the Israeli Air Force’s AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, the company announced on September 8. The contract, issued through the Directorate of Defense Research & Development (DDR&D), includes development, […] The post Israel to equip Apache helicopters with new missile defense system first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

The development of Türkiye’s first fifth-generation fighter aircraft has reached a new phase – the second KAAN prototype has entered the system integration stage. According to Ulusavunma, the two new prototypes—currently undergoing advanced assembly—are being built with improved internal systems, drawing from flight data collected during the two successful test flights of the initial P0 […] The post Turkey makes progress toward KAAN jet production first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

Australian-based Electro Optic Systems (EOS) has revealed the name and expanded capabilities of its next-generation high-energy laser weapon—Apollo—marking a critical step forward in directed-energy systems as global militaries race to counter the growing threat posed by drones. In a statement ahead of the DSEI defense exhibition in London, EOS confirmed that its 100-kilowatt-class High Energy […] The post EOS unveils Apollo laser weapon first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

The U.S. Army has initiated the deployment of counter-drone technologies on its armored platforms in response to the evolving threat posed by low-cost, first-person-view (FPV) unmanned aerial systems. The move reflects a growing recognition within the Army’s leadership that these small, improvised strike drones represent a credible challenge on the modern battlefield. According to the […] The post U.S. armored vehicles get anti-drone protection first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

Russia plans to manufacture hundreds of new tanks, aircraft, and missile systems by the end of 2025 despite having reportedly depleted a large portion of its Soviet-era weapons stockpiles, according to a senior Ukrainian intelligence official. In an interview with Ukrinform, Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (GUR), outlined Moscow’s current weapons production […] The post Russia ramps up production of new weapons first appeared on Defence Blog.View the full article

Waves of different groups seeking new homes from east and west have arrived and disappeared on Greenland’s hostile shores for thousands of years. In the modern era of nation states, it is Greenland’s unique location and potential resources that are drawing attention once again as her strategic position once again brings her to the front. Today’s Midrats Podcast is going to start there with our guest, Dr. Elizabeth Buchanan. We will start live an hour later at 6 pm Eastern. You can listen at this link. If you’re reading this after the show or on the email distro, visit the Substack page later Sunday night when I will update with all the podcast links. We will kick off with her latest book as a touchstone to our conversation, So You Want to Own Greenland?: Lessons from the Vikings to Trump. Dr. Elizabeth Buchanan is a senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and a polar geopolitics expert. She is a visiting fellow in US-Australia alliance studies at the Center for the National Interest in Washington DC. Most recently she was Head of Research for the Royal Australian Navy’s Sea Power Centre (Department of Defence) and a First Sea Lord Five Eyes fellow with the Royal Navy Strategic Studies Centre. Dr. Buchanan is co-director and co-founder of polar warfare studies at the Modern War Institute of the West Point Military Academy. Before joining Defence, Dr Buchanan was lecturer of strategic studies for the Defence and Strategic Studies course at the Australian War College. Elizabeth holds a PhD in Russian Arctic strategy and completed her post-doctoral studies as a maritime fellow at the NATO Defense College in Rome. She has published widely on geopolitics, most recently with Australian Foreign Affairs, International Affairs, The National Interest, War on the Rocks, Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, The Australian, and The American Conservative. Dr. Buchanan has been a visiting scholar with the Brookings Institution and was an analyst with Royal Dutch Shell. Elizabeth has two prior books: Russian Energy Strategy in Asia and Red Arctic: Russian Arctic Strategy under Putin. In addition to, So you want to own Greenland, she also has an upcoming book, Competitive Cooperation at the Ends of the Earth. Leave a comment Share This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. View the full article