Raw Intel

For those who’ve watched for a long time, especially over the last decade, our service academies and war colleges have drifted further toward academic leftist orthodoxy and away from their core competence as serious military organizations. The last eight months have been a whirlwind of change, as efforts are finally underway to refocus these institutions on their core competency. The two most high-profile Navy centers of higher education (with the Naval Postgraduate School a close 3rd, sorry fellas) are the U.S. Naval Academy (USNA) in Annapolis, MD and the Naval War College (NWC) in Newport, RI. We have covered the need for a depolarization and re-militarization at both …

If you think there is a good news story around the Navy's portion of the defense budget over the next few years, you haven't been paying attention. Pondering over at USNIBlog. Grab a drink and give it a read. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?d=yIl2AUoC8zA http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?d=qj6IDK7rITs http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=PQiHzpMMBx4:4cceqdxyaV0:gIN9vFwOqvQ http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=PQiHzpMMBx4:4cceqdxyaV0:-BTjWOF_DHI http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=PQiHzpMMBx4:4cceqdxyaV0:V_sGLiPBpWU http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=PQiHzpMMBx4:4cceqdxyaV0:F7zBnMyn0Lo http://feeds.f…

Show LinksThe Congress, the Golden Fleet, and the Shipbuilding Industrial Base in 2026 You can listen at this link, subscribe to the podcast, or via the Spotify widget below. SummaryIn this episode of Midrats, Sal and Mark engage with Eric Labs, a senior analyst at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), to discuss the complexities of shipbuilding costs, the role of the CBO in providing independent estimates, and the challenges faced by the U.S. Navy in maintaining and expanding its fleet. Eric shares insights on the differences between CBO and Navy cost estimates, the impact of maintenance on overall ship costs, and the importance of a skilled labor force in shipbuilding.…

There are good things, smart things, happening in The Philippines; "Meetings have already been set and probably we may have the Japanese and the Australians join in," Philippine Ambassador to the United States Jose Manuel Romualdez told Reuters. "They would like to join in for joint patrols to make sure that there's the code of conduct and there's freedom of navigation," adding it was still "an idea under discussion". If the plan materializes, it will be the first time the Philippines has joined multilateral maritime patrols in the South China Sea, a move that would likely anger Beijing, which claims most of the sea as its territory. The United States - quietly and wit…

15-months later, we have a lot more information from the burning of the USS Bonhomme Richard (LHD 6) ... and none of it is going to make you feel better. I am of the "responsibility of command" school, but if you don't feel and smell a larger story here, you aren't paying attention. More, along with links to the Command Investigation, are over at USNBlog. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?d=yIl2AUoC8zA http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?d=qj6IDK7rITs http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=nqUlw-LvaTU:8nYxI3l1WTM:gIN9vFwOqvQ http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=nqUlw-LvaTU:8nYxI3l1WTM:-BTjWOF_DHI http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/b…

With the growing tensions on the Russian-Ukrainian border (and Belorussian while we are at it) when Midrats regular Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg writes something, you need to pay attention. He recently co-authored an article with Michael Kofman at the Washington Post titled, "Here’s what we know about Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine." What is the nature of Russia’s military buildup? And how long can Russia keep its forces in these forward positions? Our research on Russia’s military capabilities offers some clues. This is a solid snapshot and quick read of what the Ukrainians are facing. Russian forces near Ukraine total at most 60 battalion tactical groups (BTGs), alon…

After my Monday post about our use of Corsair USV in the attack on the Iranian shipyard/submarine, a very sensible and steady friend sent me a note expressing concern that I was getting a bit too excited. He was concerned that I was joining the gaggle of the drones-uber-alles people. I felt a little insulted that he would think so little of me…but such is the danger of my imperfect writing. Here’s what I replied to his concerns, I am not one of these drones-uber-alles fellas. It’s just an evolution of an existing tool that we can put in the toolbox. It’s not a sexy opinion, It’s not popular, but I think it is the reasonable position. At the Australian Strategic Policy In…

The US Navy is deploying to the Caribbean? Been there, done that, came back disappointed. We’ve been doing these deployments since before we were even a nation, so pardon me if this didn’t raise too much of an eyebrow. On the 20th, The United States has ordered an amphibious squadron to the southern Caribbean as part of President Donald Trump's effort to address threats from Latin American drug cartels, two sources briefed on the deployment said on Wednesday. The sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that the USS San Antonio, USS Iowa Jima and USS Fort Lauderdale could arrive off the coast of Venezuela as early as Sunday. The ships are carrying 4,500 service …

First of all, as we do, let’s go to the chart room to look at one of the most geographically perfect places on this planet to have shipyards and naval bases: San Francisco Bay. As our nation faces again a challenge in the Pacific that necessitates an increased basing requirement on our West Coast, it is only natural we would look first at where nature provided us such a blessing. From top to bottom, San Francisco Bay used to be covered thickly with naval bases, shipyards and everything else you would expect from a world dominating naval power. However due to a political climate hostile to both the military and industry, grasping developers, and the domination of green-eye…

The Navy's tale of woe in trying to force the acquisition system to actually produce something besides process is almost too painful to recall, especially on the surface side of the house. We have the walking wounded of LCS, the squib DDG-1000, the gilded promise Ford CVN, and the never-was-has-been CG(X). We have hope that we can't screw up the existing Franco-Italian FREMM in the upcoming modified to American requirements Constellation Class FFG, but we shall see if our optimism is well placed. As we all wait with bated breath and gritted teeth on what may be with DDG(X), we should look around to see if there is a benchmark recently that did work. On the surface side o…

A nation’s foreign policy is driven by more than just the whims and desires of the Chief Executive. Through government, academia, institutions, and individuals of influence there are a variety of different schools of thought on what should underpin the decision making process. Well known general descriptors of these schools include “interventionist,” “isolationist,” “internationalist,” and even well known sub-species of the major schools who are known by the actions they wish to take - usually that involve the use of military power - “Responsibility to Protect,” to “Nation Building” to the old saw from over a century ago, “Make the World Safe for Democracy.” One long-stan…

On the tarmac at Andrews. I just don't know. A few more comments at USNIBlog, but not that many more. Come for the pic, stay for the ponder. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?d=yIl2AUoC8zA http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?d=qj6IDK7rITs http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=CL-Lu2JGRtA:dr_96jSjVPg:gIN9vFwOqvQ http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=CL-Lu2JGRtA:dr_96jSjVPg:-BTjWOF_DHI http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=CL-Lu2JGRtA:dr_96jSjVPg:V_sGLiPBpWU http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=CL-Lu2JGRtA:dr_96jSjVPg:F7zBnMyn0Lo http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/FAFV/~4/CL-Lu2JGRtAView the full arti…

My apologies to regulars here, but in the last year or so I have felt the need to remind new arrivals about my stance with regards to Ukraine and Russia as new readers tend to make incorrect assumptions. My record is clear back to 2014: I stand firmly with the Ukrainian people’s desire for independence and self-determination. I am not a Russia-accommodationalist. Yes, yes, yes, to all the issues with Ukraine since independence. I have written for well over a decade about their issues with corruption, etc…but that has little to do with the issue at hand. As I mentioned on an episode of the Midrats Podcast in the months before the February 2022 invasion by Russia, Ukraine …

It was a dozen years ago that...we thought—really thought—that with the X-47B we could move from crawl to walk with large unmanned systems. From the OG Blog in July, 2017: I'm interested in how many can I physically wedge on to a carrier deck and/or hangar bay. I'll waive the flight control issue etc - but once you know how many you can actually pack in your helmet bag and carry (given tradeoffs for other aircraft etc) - then we can start to plan orbits, sorties, loss-rate mitigation, etc. Now, if there were a way to stack them like so many Pringles ..... Ponder. Of course, by the end of the year, the usual suspects killed it for all the worst reasons. We could have had…

Ethan Gossrow over at Naval News did a detailed look at the carrier portion of the 30-year shipbuilding plan that gives some texture for those who, like myself, are concerned about the slow approach to bringing new carriers online. Even though today is no different from any other day over the last half decade, there are those who will continue to try to explain why the USN’s CVNs are “obsolete” and not worth the investment. However, reality continues to get in their way, as he quotes from the Plan: “Underpinning Expanded Maritime Maneuver (EMM) the CVN serves as a persistent, survivable, mobile sea base that enables the Navy to dominate contested environments and deliver …

Fewer carriers are deploying more even as repeated warning lights have been going off that we are expending in peace what we will need in war when it comes to personnel and materiel in carrier aviation. How did we get here, where are we, and where are we going? Using her article, No Margin Left: Overworked Carrier Force Struggles to Maintain Deployments After Decades of Overuse, as a starting point and diving it to some of the additional insights she gained while writing it, Megan Eckstein from USNINews will be joining us along with Sam LaGrone this Sunday from 5-6pm Eastern. Megan Eckstein is the deputy editor for USNI News. She previously covered Congress and the …

One of the least helpful aspects of the modern-day battleship debate is the fact it has been so highly politicized. Whenever an announcement of a milestone comes up, the first thing that has to be done in the search for useful information is to filter out the rabid partisans on the left and right who will support or oppose anything strictly through a partisan lens. Both sides have two subspecies: mindless partisans to just call names and flick spittle about, and the professional partisans who will make an argument based on fact or well-founded opinion…filtered, but useful in the broader discussion. One of the more valuable reference documents on most issues involving wa…

Before the Russo-Ukrainian War kicked off in February, on the Top-5 lists of any navalist worth their salt was the Arctic. If you are an Atlanticist/NATO type, it was in your Top-3. Sea lanes/SLOC, resource access, resource protection, environmental protection and monitoring, and just good old sound military planning kept the Arctic on everyone’s mind. The fact that especially in the USA there was no small bit of “out of sight out of mind” neglect, specifically with our icebreaking capabilities, brought as much concern. The non-Arctic nation of China deciding she wanted to be a player only made it even more important that policy makers wake up. When you look at the playin…

Some warning will only be given so many times. We were warned a few months in to the 2003 invasion of Iraq. We were warned again five years later when we were trying to source what was needed to support the uplift in forces in Afghanistan while Iraq still had high demands. Our allies pretty much went Winchester in the 2011 operations against Libya. We can barely partially source small and medium sized conflicts ... we are not ready for a larger one. That is a simple fact that seems too painful for people to clearly look at. Like the US Navy excels in damage control by design and training, in theory the US military writ large excels in logistics. What good is the culture…

East Timor. Over four centuries of neglectful Portuguese rule, a spat of 1970s violence, a few decades of Indonesian rule, and then independence shortly after the turn of the century. Is that all you really need to know about this small, poor, and generally forgotten part of an insignificant island? Is it insignificant? The People’s Republic of China (PRC) doesn’t think so. Follow the money. As always, let’s head to the chart room. There she is in the center. That red circle is the 360 nautical mile circle that meets where the USMC base is at Darwin, Australia. East Timor has a population of 1.3 million. Roughly the population of San Diego, CA or Estonia. In size, her p…