Drug gangs and Iran impact Latin America

From Aviation Week

Drug Gangs, Iran Impact Latin America

Jan 14, 2010

By Paul McLeary

Washington

Security issues in Latin America have largely been on the back burner in American political and military circles for years, with continued U.S. funding for the Colombian military and the belligerence of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez only briefly engaging American consciousness.

This has changed dramatically over the last few years with the explosion of drug cartels that threaten the stability of some countries, the growing influence of Iran and the hard-core anti-Americanism of the Venezuelan president.

A report by Latin American analyst Sylvia Longmire looks at how the Mexican drug war is destabilizing the region, with smuggling and human trafficking roiling poor countries and the reach of drug cartels bleeding across the border into the U.S. In March 2009, Guatemalan security forces raided an encampment where Los Zetas—Mexican drug traffickers—were training gunmen. The police arrived just after the group fled, leaving rifles, ammunition and 500 grenades. Authorities also discovered an airstrip, obstacle course and firing range with moving targets. Mexican drug cartels have been using the brutal El Salvadoran gang MS-13 “as ad-hoc enforcers, both in Mexico and the U.S.,” Longmire writes. “Some law enforcement reports indicate MS-13 members have been hired to carry out hits on U.S. soil, as have members of other U.S.-based Latino gangs.”

In November, authorities in Nicaragua seized a cache of weapons that belonged to Mexico’s Sinaloa Federation cartel, and the national police raided several houses in Managua suspected of containing weapons.

During the Cold War, the Soviets spent time and energy trying to make inroads in Latin America, with limited success. Over the past several years, Iran has taken a page from the Soviet playbook and, since 2005, opened embassies in Colombia, Nicaragua, Chile, Ecuador, Uruguay and Bolivia. This has set off a proxy conflict between Iran and Israel in South America, with the presidents of both countries logging frequent-flier miles to win friends in the region. One cause for concern among many analysts is the weekly flight between Caracas and Tehran (with a stop in Damascus) that Iran Air has flown for two years. Frida Ghitis of the World Politics Review reported in November that “flight manifests are kept secret, so neither cargo nor passenger information is well known.” She added “one Israeli report suggested that Venezuela and Bolivia are supplying uranium to Iran. Another report, from Chavez himself, says Iran is helping Venezuela extract the radioactive material from its mines for purely peaceful purposes.”

Iranian influence in the region has grown so worrisome for American policy makers that the former head of U.S. Southern Command, Adm. James Stavridis, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton publicly signaled their concern about Iran’s dealings on this side of the Atlantic. Of special concern were reports that the Iranian-backed, Lebanon-based Hezbollah, which the U.S. regards as a terrorist group, is involved in Colombia’s narcotics trade, and is active in Paraguay, Brazil and Argentina.

Despite all this, defense spending across the region has remained relatively stable—and has even fallen—in recent years. Latin American defense spending between 2010 and 2014 is expected to total $267 billion, according to a study by Forecast International, with Brazil leading the pack with a projected budget of $121 billion during the period. Forecast finds that most Latin American countries plan to upgrade or replace equipment in upcoming years. Brazil, given its relatively stable economy, is looking to move forward on a nuclear submarine program and fighter requirement.

There have been rumblings for years about an “arms race” between countries in the region, notably Colombia and Venezuela. No such threat has materialized, although Venezuela signed several big-ticket military contracts with Russia. In previous years, when money from oil exports filled Venezuela’s coffers, the country gorged itself on procurement. Now that oil prices are lower, Venezuela has turned to loans for weapons or scuttled plans altogether. Forecast International’s Latin America and Caribbean analyst, Rebecca Barrett, said recently that while Chavez has secured a $2.2-billion loan from Russia for Russian-made equipment, “if the past holds true . . . just because an agreement has been signed does not mean financing will actually be made available.”