Hypothetical scenarios from new RAND report

A new RAND report contains a number of hypothetical scenarios which are focused on aircraft carrier operations and which might provoke some ideas for new Harpoon scenarios (hopefully). The full report is here.

China-Taiwan Crisis (2009)

The government in Beijing waited until after the 2008 Olympic Games before taking a direct coercive approach against Taiwan. The motivation to take such direct action increased during the games, since the leadership in Taipei used China’s refusal to admit its team into the games as an opportunity to pronounce its “new national status” and virtually declare independence from the mainland. Within a month of the end of the games, Beijing announced major military exercises that included Chinese warships operating north and east of the island. On the political front, Beijing issued a virtual ultimatum to Taipei that it must renounce any pretense of independence and enter into bilateral talks to “formalize the union of Taiwan with its home country.” The leadership in Taiwan refused to do so. On January 15, Chinese warships seized two Taiwanese freighters that were en route to the island, escorting them to Chinese ports. Both ships were loaded with military equipment just purchased from Europe. Once the cargoes were inspected, Beijing announced that the weapons represented an outright provocation and declared an economic blockade of the island. Chinese warships put to sea, and the entire Chinese military started mobilization. The government in Taipei also announced mobilization, and it called on the United States, the United Nations, and other nations for assistance to repel Chinese aggression. The President directed the Secretary of Defense to dispatch several Carrier Strike Groups, additional long-range bombers and support aircraft, Army missile defense units, and two Marine Expeditionary Units (MEUs) toward locations in the western Pacific, although not to Taiwan itself. As soon as these steps became known, the Chinese government declared them an attempt to interfere with internal Chinese affairs. Ominously, Beijing’s ambassador in Tokyo handed a formal communiqué to the Japanese government, warning it to remain strictly neutral in the event of an armed conflict over Taiwan and stating that any American use of Japanese bases for operations against China would be regarded as an act of war by Japan against China. The communiqué stated that China would feel free to take any appropriate steps in those circumstances. On January 20, roughly three days into the U.S. deployment of

additional forces toward the western Pacific, the Chinese commenced military operations against Taiwan. A barrage of over 200 conventionally armed missiles strike Taiwanese air bases, command centers, and key political locations. Less than 30 minutes later, a strike by some 250 Chinese fighters and bombers hits military targets on the island. Later that day, a Taiwanese freighter some 200 miles off the east coast of the island is torpedoed and sunk, apparently by a Chinese submarine.

Considerable movement of coastal vessels has been detected in Chinese ports close to the straits between Taiwan and the mainland. That afternoon, the President authorizes U.S. military action to defeat Chinese attempts to isolate or take over Taiwan. Almost simultaneously, the Japanese ambassador in Washington informs the Secretary of State that U.S. military forces located in Japan are not allowed to

conduct offensive operations against China until the Japanese Diet considers the matter. He informs the Secretary of State that Tokyo has just received what amounts to a formal ultimatum from Beijing, demanding that Japan prohibit any U.S. use of its bases.

Coup Attempt in Pakistan (Year Unknown)

Radical elements in the Pakistani armed forces have staged a coup in an attempt to overthrow the government. Although the coup failed—the government of Pakistan remained in power—the rebels managed to seize control of two Pakistani nuclear weapons storage sites, together with a number of missile launchers. A number of Pakistani military units have joined the rebels and are now defending the seized nuclear facilities. Recognizing the gravity of the situation, the Pakistani government has requested U.S. military assistance in order to (1) defeat the rebel forces, (2) prevent the launch of a nuclear weapon, and (3) prevent a nuclear weapon from being removed from the storage sites and delivered to parties unknown.

North Korea Crisis (2006)

By spring 2006, it is clear that the six-party (United States, Republic of Korea [ROK], Democratic People’s Republic of Korea [DPRK], PRC, Russia, and Japan) negotiations to eliminate the North Korean nuclear-weapon programs have reached an impasse.

With strong U.S. encouragement, China, Japan, and Russia announce the beginning of a “partial” economic and financial embargo on all trade with the DPRK—most importantly, including Chinese petroleum. Although officially supportive, South Korea expresses grave private doubts that the strategy of economic coercion will lead to a second Korean War. There are large demonstrations in South Korea, protesting the ROK government’s tentative support for the coercive strategy. Pyongyang virulently denounces this turn of events and warns of war. In response to the growing discontent in South Korea, the United States announces that it will take “prudent precautionary measures” to ensure that North Korea does not consider a military option to escape an “unavoidable decision to give up its nuclear-weapon program.” Further, the Secretary of State announces that Washington would treat any evidence

that the DPRK is selling and/or transferring nuclear weapons and/or weapons-grade material to parties “known or unknown” as a “threat to its vital interests.” U.S. and Asia media interpret this statement as a “red line” for North Korea. Consistent with the Proliferation Security Initiative, the United States and Japan declare a “naval surveillance zone” around the DPRK to ensure that Pyongyang does not attempt to transfer nuclear-weapon materials by sea. The crisis rapidly escalates after three events. First, a U.S. Navy (USN) warship stops a DPRK freighter in the China Sea. The North Korean crew resists an attempt by the USN to board the freighter. During a short firefight, the North Korean ship blows up. Washington is very suspicious of a “war provocation.” Second, North Korea responds by firing two FROG-7–class short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) into the Han River between Seoul and Inchon in an attempt to intimidate the South Korean government. Third, the Japanese Coast Guard has an armed clash with a North Korean “spy boat” off the west coast of Kyushu. Pyongyang responds by threatening to “demonstrate” its nuclear deterrent against Japan. During an interview with the South Korean media, the North Korean leader appeals for “Korean unity” and promises not to use his nuclear arsenal against his “Korean brothers and sisters.” This interview creates a sensation among the South Korean public. There are mass demonstrations in the major cities of South Korea, calling for the withdrawal of all U.S. forces. The U.S. Ambassador to South Korea reports that the ROK may not allow U.S. reinforcements or the use of its airfields for offensive operations in the event of war. In turn, the Japanese Prime Minister, through a hotline, calls on the U.S. President to stand firm in the face of North Korean nuclear aggression. The U.S. government is now considering its options to take action against North Korea, including the possibility of a preemptive strike against the North’s WMD storage facilities and missile-launch units.

Crisis with Iran (Year Unknown)

Since U.S. forces occupied Iraq in early 2003, the Islamic regime in Iran has stepped up its efforts to undermine and weaken U.S. power and influence in the Persian Gulf region. Realizing that they cannot directly challenge U.S. military power, the Iranian regime has used third parties—terrorist groups, radical organizations, and insurgents—in the Middle East to attack U.S. interests and undermine the governments of nations in the region that are friendly to the United States. Such indirect actions against the United States have also placed Tehran at some risk, because it cannot completely control the actions of its third-party proxy forces.

Meanwhile, Iran has become a nuclear-armed nation, although publicly denying that it has any nuclear arms. At present, it has roughly a dozen nuclear weapons. Delivery means include theater missiles that are capable of striking Israel, Turkey, and all of Saudi Arabia. Additionally, some Iranian aircraft have been refitted to drop nuclear bombs. The precipitating event for the crisis is a terrorist bombing attack

against a hotel in Amman, Jordan, that is frequented by Westerners. The hotel was the scene of an international conference on aid to poor African and Middle Eastern nations. More than 400 people were killed in the blast, including roughly 100 Americans. Two of the terrorists were captured by Jordanian authorities. Upon interrogation, one states that his group developed the plan of attack and was armed by Iranian agents. Additional leads are followed, and the evidence pointing toward

direct Iranian involvement seems undeniable. When the United States publicly accuses Iran of sponsoring the bombing, the leaders in Tehran openly claim that they are prepared to respond “massively” to any U.S. attack, and they state that for any

nation in the region to assist in or contribute to a U.S. attack on Iran will be regarded as an act of war. Immediately, several Middle Eastern governments that are generally friendly toward the United States request information on U.S. intentions toward Iran and information on what protection the United States can provide them if the crisis leads to actual armed conflict.

Support for Myanmar (Year Unknown)

Myanmar (formerly Burma) is growing in strategic importance. Located between China and India, the nation has only recently started to come out of a period of intense, self-imposed isolation. China is starting to invest heavily in the nation, including building new major roads to facilitate access to the port of Rangoon in southern Myanmar. This vignette postulates that a new group of leaders assumes control and tilts the nation more in the direction of the West and India, much to the dislike of the Chinese. In response, the Chinese back a revolt in which the pro-Chinese elements in the nation attempt to regain power, which leads to an intense civil war. India expresses alarm at the situation and asks the United States to join its efforts to assist the Myanmar government.The United States elects to support the new Myanmar government with military advisers, supplies, and equipment, as well as selected air support. As was the case in the Colombian vignette, regional and domestic political considerations mean that the United States must minimize its presence ashore in the area.This reality places a premium on carrier-based aviation.

Similar to several other vignettes, the distances to be covered by aircraft operating off the carrier were assumed to be long. Much of the fighting between government troops and the rebels is taking place in the middle of the country, thus requiring air missions with a radius of 500 miles or more from carriers operating in the northern portion of the Bay of Bengal. ISR support for the government forces, plus occasional

precision-strike missions, would be the main role of the carrier air wings in this situation.

There are some other scenarios too, including some non-combat scenarios.