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Introduction: Statement by IISS Director-General

(Source: International Institute of Strategic Studies; issued Jan. 27, 2009)

 

Welcome to the launch of the 2009 The Military Balance.

 

Joining me to answer your questions today are: James Hackett, Editor of The Military Balance, Alex Nicoll, Director of Editorial, Nigel Inkster, Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk; Tim Huxley, Executive Director IISS-Asia; Oksana Antonenko, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia; Christopher Langton, Senior Fellow for Armed Conflict and Defence Diplomacy; Dana Allin, Editor of Survival and Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs; Mark Fitzpatrick, Senior Fellow for Non-Proliferation; Rahul Roy Chaudhury, Senior Fellow for South Asia; and Bastian Giegerich, Research Associate for European Security.

 

An Executive Summary of the main points in this year’s The Military Balance, as well as this brief statement will be available right after this press conference and also on our web page. The Executive summary gives a brief region-by-region assessment of the key defence and military developments of the past year.

 

The Military Balance 2009 is published in the wake of the inauguration of President Barack Obama in the US and the interest his election has inspired worldwide as a force for reconciliation. The challenges his administration faces in the security domain are as awesome as those he confronts in the economic and financial realms.

 

The recently well established threats from international terrorism networks and from nuclear proliferation risks persist, but they do so in an environment plagued by poor relations between Western powers and Russia, diminishing will-power and capacity among European states for sustained projection of combat military power and growing instability in the Middle East and South West Asia. African conflicts remain very intense, with violence in the Congo recently leading to the displacement of 250,000 people, the Zimbabwe crisis unresolved and the challenges of Darfur addressd by a force too small for the task. Piracy has become a greater international challenge, and another unfortunate by-product of the failing-states phenomenon.

 

The global economic crisis means additionally that financial resources for conflict prevention and reconstruction will not be abundant. This means that creative diplomacy must be an ever greater component of good strategy.

 

The foreign policy and security team being assembled by President Obama will, it appears, engage in heavy diplomacy. His use of the Special Envoy instrument and his appointment of figures such as Richard Holbrooke and George Mitchell to such positions is confirmation that diplomatic and conflict-resolution efforts especially in South West Asia and the Middle East will intensify.

 

Certainly the Mumbai terror attacks dangerously upset the India-Pakistan relationship. The Western intervention in Afghanistan is faltering and a robust diplomatic strategy involving tribal outreach and a more co-ordinated international approach is vital to success. The Gaza war has not eliminated the threat to Israel. While Hamas suffered serious blows, the diplomacy surrounding the efforts to end the crisis, and the anxiety that the level of civilian casualties created in the Arab world, has served to legitimise Hamas in the eyes of part of Arab public opinion and even amongst some regional leaders, weakening the position of the co-called moderates.

 

A priority for US and international diplomacy must be dealing with the multiple crises in South and South East Asia, and the Near East and the Gulf. Whatever new impulse is given to these efforts by the US administration, however, involving Europeans and regional actors effectively will require unprecedented levels of consultation in order to establish a relatively common strategic approach.

 

MUMBAI TERROR ATTACKS

 

The Mumbai terror attacks on 26–28 November 2008 sharply raised tensions between India and Pakistan, and disrupted their fledgling peace process. While India initially blamed ‘elements in Pakistan’ for the attack, it raised the ante earlier this month by asserting the involvement of ‘official agencies’ in Pakistan, which Islamabad denied. Calling Pakistan the ‘epicentre of terrorism’, India demanded that it act against those responsible for the attacks.

 

Pakistan subsequently closed down training camps and offices of the banned Islamist militant group Lashkar-e-Toyiba and its front organisation Jamaat-ud-Daawa, held responsible for the Mumbai attacks. There, no doubt, remains an extensive element of the network that has not been rolled up. Amidst increasing rhetoric and the armed forces of both countries being placed on high alert, the US and the UK tried to ease tensions by seeking restraint from India and urging Pakistan to do more to shut down terror groups operating from its territory.

 

Although India has said that ‘all its options are open’, it has focused on mounting an international diplomatic campaign to put pressure on Pakistan while overhauling its own legal, administrative and operational measures to enhance security. However, amidst looming general elections in India, there remains concern that the Indian government could ratchet up the pressure on Pakistan. Although there is no sign of India’s massing troops on the border with Pakistan as happened after the December 2001 attacks on the Indian parliament, there remains a risk of misunderstanding and miscalculation between the two nuclear-armed nations, especially at a time when mutual trust is in such short supply. Another worry is that the Pakistan army would use the concern about a threat from India to move troops to the border and away from the counter-terrorism effort that has proved so costly to it.

 

In general, these trends are discouraging, because of the growing appreciation that the conflict in Afghanistan is intimately linked to the situation in Pakistan, and the awareness that a decline in Pakistan’s stability has a direct outcome on the prospects of any measure of success in Afghanistan.

 

GAZA WAR

 

The Israeli war in Gaza that produced so many civilian casualties and that is now subject to a tenuous ceasefire has both given greater urgency to the need for a Middle East peace process and made it more difficult. The impending Israeli elections and the time needed to establish a new government will create delays. The rise, if temporary, in the position of Hamas and the proportionate decline in the reputation among Palestinians of Fatah, also means that the division in the Palestinian leadership is more acute.

 

As after the Lebanon war in August 2006, there is already an intense debate in Israel as to whether Israel’s long-term strategic aims were fulfilled. If, at high cost, Israel’s ‘deterrence’ was somehow reinforced by the intensity of its onslaught in Gaza, the strategic threat posed by Hamas to Israel remains. Moderate Arab states that see Hamas as a threat and as an Iranian proxy are placed in a difficult position

 

Israel’s strategic goal should be to find a way by which it can develop greater legitimacy for itself among moderate Arab states, which could then offer fuller support to Israel in whatever ongoing battles it may have with non-state actors such as Hamas and Hizbullah.

 

The existence of a credible process to establish the two-state territorial settlement is the only route to strengthening that legitimacy. Re-establishing that process after the Israeli elections will be an important US and international priority. But a variety of specific security challenges in Gaza remain, not least balancing efforts to close the tunnels with commensurate work towards opening border crossings with Israel.

 

THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND MILITARY SPENDING

 

Over time the financial and economic developments of the recent past and immediate future are likely to have an impact on the world’s strategic shape, potentially affecting the balance between the United States and Asian states, especially China. But it is too early to assess the precise effects.

 

One immediate consequence of the financial situation is a dramatic increase in public borrowing in Western countries, as governments deliberately boost spending to try to breathe life into economic activity. In time there are bound to be consequences for defence spending. In the short term, there may not be too much change, because governments will be reluctant to do anything that could increase job losses. In the United States, which has by far the world’s largest defence budget, President Obama will be anxious to demonstrate that he is strong on issues of security, and indeed he plans to carry through with increases to the size of the Army and Marine Corps.

 

Therefore, existing budget plans may not be subject to much immediate change, although we can expect much more discipline to be applied in drawing up supplementary budget demands to finance current deployments, and there will also be serious efforts to get better value for money in defence acquisition. In the longer term, and as economic recovery gets under way, governments will be faced by the need to reduce very large budget deficits, and defence spending seems bound to come under close scrutiny. It would be surprising not to see a levelling off in defence expenditure in the United States, and the long-term trend of lower spending in Europe could be reinforced.

 

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

 

In Europe, 2009 will be the 60th anniversary of the Nato Alliance. Given the challenges NATO has confronted in Afghanistan, and the awkward consequences for its enlargement policy of the Russia–Georgia war, it would be wise if the opportunity were seized for Nato to do more work on two fronts. First, reinvigorating Nato’s strategic concept and placing the emphasis on the stabilisation missions that are at the core of its current activities. Second, developing a Russia strategy that allows for more effective consultation and where possible, co-operation, with Russia.

 

In the aftermath of the Russia–Georgia conflict, the Russians announced plans for the most radical reform of the armed forces since the end of the Soviet Union. The army will be fully professionalised. The structure of the Armed Forces will change radically from divisions to more flexible brigades. This restructuring, if implemented jointly with the previously announced ambitious modernisation plans, could make Russian armed forces more capable to operate against modern threats and potentially better interoperable with western forces.

 

Given its continuing challenges in Afghanistan, the Nato leadership would do well to develop more cordial ways to interact with the Russian national security establishment in the region, engaging co-operatively other Central Asian states in the task to bring political stability to the country.

 

In Afghanistan, we are entering what is probably the most critical period since 2001. The Afghanistan Compact of 2006 is in its final two years and presidential elections are due to take place this year amid rising violence and with a government that is unable to exert its authority in the provinces. Against this background there is a risk that it will not be possible to hold elections; or voter turnout may be below the minimum necessary for the ballot to be valid. The integrity of the whole international mission in Afghanistan is therefore very substantially at stake.

 

The Military Balance 2009 lays out in immense detail the military holdings, economic expenditure and defence modernisation plans of some 170 states. Over the year the IISS will analyse the strategic trends that may or may not give rise to the actual use of organised military force. We will also devote considerable efforts to understand the factors that may foreclose the use of military force, and discreetly assist conflict-resolution efforts where we can. We welcome your questions on current defence and strategic trends.

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