New Succession Structure in Saudi Arabia

[CV32]

From DefenseNews

 

New Succession Structure to Emerge in Saudi Arabia

By RIAD KAHWAJI, DUBAI

 

The death of King Fahd bin Abdulaziz on Aug. 1 has set in motion a succession process believed to be in place ever since the late monarch’s health started deteriorating following his 1995 stroke.

 

Crown Prince Abdullah was immediately named as the new monarch while his half-brother, Defense Minister Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz, was named as the new crown prince.

 

“King Fahd’s death, and Crown Prince Abdullah’s accession to the throne, is unlikely to have any negative impact on Saudi stability and may well help the kingdom move forward in dealing with a number of major issues,” said Anthony Cordesman, who holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington.

 

In the past decade, Abdullah consolidated his control as the de facto ruler of the oil-rich kingdom and introduced many reforms, although not as many or as fast as he might have wished.

 

Abdullah, Cordesman said, “has been seen as both a supporter of reform, and traditional in values — free of corruption and deeply Islamic. He has encouraged the next generation of princes to support reform, pushed for an Arab-Israeli peace settlement and supported dialogue with the West to counter Islamic extremism. King Fahd’s death will now give him full power, and he may well be able to move forward in several areas of reform, exploiting the ties he has already developed to ‘reform’ factions in the family, technocrats and elite.”

 

As defense minister, Prince Sultan invested much of his country’s vast oil wealth in establishing a modern military through a series of huge arms deals with the West in the late 1970s and ‘80s. He also managed the kingdom’s defense policy through the difficult relations with Washington that followed the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks in the United States.

 

Observers in the Saudi capital of Riyadh said the Aug. 1 succession of power went smoothly as expected. But one problem remains: the new king and crown prince are believed to be 81 years old each.

 

It will be some time before the political map is clear in Saudi Arabia as to who will be next in line after Prince Sultan.

 

While Sultan’s son, Prince Khaled, has emerged as a powerful figure in the Defense Ministry, he would face tough competition from two of the new king’s half brothers: Prince Naif, the conservative interior minister, and Prince Salman, the governor of Riyadh.

 

Saudi Arabia has not signed a major multibillion-dollar defense contract for some time despite its need for new fighter jets and other defense systems. The slowdown in defense spending was attributed to a lack of funds caused by drops in oil prices.

 

However, some analysts have said they believe the vast revenues generated by higher oil prices in the last couple of years would revive Saudi defense procurement.