I've been kicking these ideas around since about 2016. I have been adding details as world events inspire my creativity.  Today made me think it was time to do something. Unfortunately my real life is too chaotic to devote the necessary time to creating these scenarios. So I am offering them to anyone who wants.

Here are the first four ideas for scenarios.

Can anyone help?

Maybe just by telling me if these ideas are workable. 

Thanks in Advance

p.s. please forgive my (often) incoherent note style

 

Brexit:  The War of English Secession

A campaign battle-set with 16 scenarios to be played in sequential order. 

Incidents and Accidents:              Some wars start with non-state groups turning a tense economic/political situation into a state level use of force crisis, examples in US History are the Boston Tea Party or Bleeding Kansas.  Almost anything could trigger a European Crisis.  Possible scenario ideas:  Fishing Boats in the Bay of Biscay, Sabotage in the Chunnel, or North Sea Oil Platforms, Refugee boats setting out from Spanish/French/Belgian/Netherlands ports.

May 6, 2021        Island of Jersey

                                ~ 50 French fishing boats traffic jamming St Helier harbor to protest new fishing license limits

                                French patrol boats Athos, Themis

                                UK OPV’s Severn, Tamar              Island of Jersey 44ft patrol cutter

Security Responses:  intend to de-fuse the crisis, instead inflame passions and harden opposition.        US Examples: Lexington/Concord (Williamsburg Armory) or Harpers Ferry.  Scenario Idea(s):  'French Tourist Invasion’ or ‘Football Hooligan Occupation’ of English Channel Islands. Jittery locals panic and try to round up and send them home, some don’t want to go, France sends ‘Gendarme swat teams’ to protect their citizens, TV crews film at 11. France then sends army to occupy the islands.

Position of Advantage:  Attempts to peacefully secure positions or maintain advantages often expand the crisis. American Examples; Bunker (Breed’s) Hill, re-supply of Ft Sumter.  Ideas;  Obviously, UK has to attempt re-supply mission(s) to Gibraltar (and Cypress, Akrotiri)

Setbacks:  Early defeats, but just a bloody nose, not a knockout.  American example; the British drive Gen. Washington out of New York City and Long Island, but don’t capture his army. Scenario Idea: Gibraltar & Akrotiri cut off, becomes a long siege, like Corregidor. USA still trying to stay out of it, because/despite NATO implications, publicly calls for de-escalation talks, while privately sends aid to UK

Here are the rest of the scenario ideas.

 

Surprise!:  Do the unexpected, and gain the initiative.  I.e. Trenton, or First Manassas/Bull Run.  Scenario Ideas:  British unopposed landings on Faeroes (annoy Denmark, Greenland declares independence), Greece (red) invades Cypress, takes on UK (blue), and Turkey (green)

Early Clashes:  Not fully mobilized, local commander initiatives, often unsuccessful. Scenario Ideas:  British Forces Germany tries to fight through to the Netherlands coast for Dunkirk-style evacuation. (1^ST Armoured Division, 20^th Armoured Infantry Brigade)    Germany asks US to remove its forces from their territory, some units move to Poland (alarming Russia), some go to UK or other NATO countries (until those nations choose sides)

Tough Times:  Gathering forces and training them, while fielded forces stay engaged, but not decisively. Frantic Diplomacy to influence the world and gain allies. For UK, Success brings big support – most likely from USA, No Gain/Failure brings allies that need more support than they contribute; i.e. Portugal. Scenario Idea: still trying to get remnants of BFG evacuated, but sea and air transport are limited, BFG waits at seacoast for amphib ships to empty in UK and return. 21^st century Dunkirk. Norway and others start quiet steps to speak reason to Germany, rebuffed by hardheads who still want UK in EU. Netherlands formally offers British Land Forces a safe transit to sea coast, provides air cover

Main Force Clash:   almost full mobilization fills ranks, but not yet experienced.  U.S. history examples:  New Jersey maneuvering or Peninsular Campaign. Scenario idea – SAS plus Royal Marine Commandos sneak and peek on French occupied Channel Islands, then seaborne and airborne invasion, costly success, but not as bad as Crete in WWII.

 Strategy Emerges:  developing a new strategy and testing its efficacy, like Continentals after Valley Forge, or the Anaconda Plan in 1862. Scenario ideas;  Germany/France try U-Boats (Again!) blockade the islands, convoys from Canada/USA, Industrial Attrition. UK opens the battle of aircraft factories; Wharton vs. Toulon. Who can produce enough to replace loses?

Irritating Sideshows:  Attempting Low cost, high impact operations.  Scenario ideas; support for guerilla/resistance cells, UK in Catalonia and EU in Scotland/Ireland

Relentless Pursuit of Objectives:  Example Vicksburg.  scenario idea; more convoy battles, Canada sending help as part of commonwealth. Australia has to stay home, alert for China moves. New Zealand under pressure from all sides, join or stay neutral, CHOOSE! Egypt attempts to close Suez, but just to Commonwealth bound shipping. Someone, (Israel?) engineers an EverGiven-like closing for everyone.

We (You) won’t do that!:  Raising/Lowering the Nuclear Threshold:  Conventional attacks on airbases and ports, targeting SSBN’s of UK and France,  and their nuclear capable aircraft, so that they won’t be used against each other.  US adds a small (deniable?) raid of counter force B-2’s w/JDAM’s, JSOW’s, etc targeting nuclear storage depots (playing as green, targeting red, but blue can’t direct).

Outside Opportunists:  Annoyances that need attention. US Examples; 1863 Mexican War with France, or 1780 Buccaneers in Spanish Florida. Scenario ideas; Argentina in Falklands/Malvinas, or Australia attacking France’s South Pacific territories. What are Russia and China doing? The US role becomes focused on keeping Russia, China, et.al. from upsetting the emerging balance. Letting UK/Commonwealth focus on establishing/enforcing complete independence. Ireland attempts to seize Northern Ireland, Canada lands on St. Peter and Miquelon Islands, just to annoy France.

The Tide Turns:   3 or 4 large convoys reach/leave UK waters with less than 10% losses.  UK will not surrender, EU thinks it must invade to win.

Overwhelming Success:  Win a battle that leaves the writing on the wall. The war is not yet won, but no longer in doubt.  Scenario idea – EU Amphibious forces [NEW ARMADA!] (France-Spain-Italy) deterred/damaged/turned back – but not destroyed, (press calls it Operation Drake, MoD neither confirms/denies).

Victory!:              Ideally, win a battle that eliminates the enemy’s means, ability or will to resist. In real world, honest start to negotiation to settle the conflict. France and Germany finally realize they face bigger threat from Russia, not UK. Scenario Idea – More a loud fizzle than a big bang, UK relief force reaches Gibraltar, then on to Cypress.  Russia and Turkey play green, emboldened probing air recon of Norway, Germany, Italy and other NATO countries (going around Poland w/large US garrison).