The Hunter becomes the hunted

From Aviation Week's Ares Blog

Parliament Hunts Nimrod

Posted by Bill Sweetman at 3/27/2008 8:19 AM CDT

Seven and a half years late and GBP787 million ($1.6 billion) over budget, the BAE Systems Nimrod MRA.4 program should be considered for cancellation, according to the latest report from the UK Parliament's Defence Committee. When the project was launched in late 1996, it was expected in service in April 2003, but the latest predicted in-service date (ISD) is September 2010. Some of the sad story is given here.

Msasively delayed projects are not unique to the UK - the V-22 was originally expected in service when? - but the UK committee singles Nimrod MRA4 out for a direct threat: "The new Minister for Defence Equipment and Support needs to look closely at this programme to assess whether it is ever likely to deliver the capability that our Armed Forces require within the timescale needed. If it does not, the MoD should withdraw from this programme."

The committee's report does not say why the Nimrod is a particular concern, but a few reasons spring to mind. One is the loss of Nimrod XV230 in Afghanistan in September 2006, along with its 14-member crew, following an inflight fire. It was not directly related to the age of the aircraft but the incident led to reviews of maintenance procedures that reflected the fleet's age. Another is that there is now a substitute aircraft available in the shape of Boeing's P-8A (see DTI for January) which is due to enter service in late 2013 and - so far - seems to be going well. A third reason could be that the P-8A might also be the basis for a replacement for the Nimrod R.1 signals intelligence aircraft.

Junking Nimrod at this stage might seem extravagant, but there's another factor to be considered. Maritime patrol aircraft fly a lot, even in peacetime, so airframe-related operating costs are a big chunk of life-cycle costs: and there is not the slightest doubt that a brand-new twin-engine airplane, basically similar to several thousand commercial 737s, is going to be cheaper to fly than a four-engine custom military airplane, based on a 30-plus-year-old airframe derived from a 1940s design.