Sara's Day - a "How To" Guide for Achieving Victory in HCE.

[spoilerS APPLY]

Part 1. The Scenario

'Sara's Day' is scenario 3 in the HDS III MEDC/HDSB battleset.

 

This scenario is legacy, and does not use the updated HCDB database.

It is the fifth day of World War III, a conflict between NATO and the Warsaw Pact (and their allied or client states) across the globe.

 

Three days previous, the Soviets pummeled NATO partner Turkey into submission, seizing control of several airfields and installations intact, while a joint effort by Syria and Egypt (and supported by the USSR) exhausted the Israeli Defense Forces.

 

A few survivors have escaped into Greece and Italy, but for all intents and purposes, the Eastern Mediterranean is completely under Soviet control.

This is a sort of "how to" guide for achieving victory, this time around from the RED (Warsaw Pact) perspective.

Part 2. The SITREP

 

As usual, you are theater commander.

 

You are in control of several Black Sea Fleet naval groups that have managed to successfully break out into the Mediterranean; forward deployed elements of Frontal Aviation operating from seized airfields in Turkey and Cyprus; elements of the Syrian and Egyptian air forces operating from their own airfields; as well as some Long Range Aviation and Soviet Naval Aviation forces in the Caucasus/Crimea region.

 

Your intelligence report is grim.

 

A US reconnaissance satellite - believed to be an Aquacade type - passed over your naval forces four hours ago, undoubtedly providing NATO with solid information on your location and group composition.

 

Moreover, first echelon USAF reinforcements have arrived in Greece, and though understrength, could still comprise 60-80 fighters.

 

The USS Saratoga carrier battle group is also operating somewhere southeast of Italy.

 

One small bit of good news on that - a Kilo submarine skipper has reported sinking a US Navy fleet oiler, meaning the CVBG might be pressed for fuel.

Part 3. The Orders

 

Your mission, in a nutshell, is to get seaborne forces to Port Said (Egypt) in order to seize and secure control of the strategic chokepoint at the Suez Canal.

 

Your air forces have been directed to provide support to help ensure that they arrive safely.

 

Your naval groups are arrayed between Crete and Cyprus as follows:

 

i. TF 7.0 (group ZTC)

 

Comprising the brand new (and perhaps slightly green) aircraft carrier Varyag, her decks jammed with 30 MiG-29K Fulcrums and 20 Su-27K Flankers, helicopters and (as a curiosity or compromise sometimes seen before in the legacy battlesets) a trio of E-2C Hawkeye AEW&C aircraft - perhaps intended to masquerade here as Yak-44. That's how we will treat them.

 

The escorts include the helicopter carrier Moskva (with lots of ASW helos aboard), the SA-N-6 capable Kara class cruiser Azov, two other cruisers, two destroyers, three frigates, two second rate attack submarines, a pair of support vessels, and four cargo ships.

 

ii. TF 7.1 (group ZMS)

 

Comprising the class lead and namesake Slava cruiser, Kara cruiser and group flag Tashkent, a Sovremennyy destroyer, a Mod Udaloy destroyer, and the Kashin class destroyer and SA-N-7 testbed Provornyy.

 

The Tashkent group flanks the Varyag group on the west.

 

iii. TF 8.1 (group ZLS)

 

Comprising a trio of Grisha V patrol corvettes, performing anti-submarine warfare (ASW) sanitization ahead of the Varyag and Tashkent groups.

 

There are also several groups not mentioned in the Orders.

 

These include:

 

Undesignated but perhaps properly identified as TF 8.2 (group ZKS), comprising a trio of Tarantul III fast attack missile craft, at the western edge of the Sea of Crete. (Note that these have only a chance of appearing in the scenario).

 

Group ZHS, comprising three cargo ships and three tankers, and escorted by two Grisha II and two Mod Petya I class ASW corvettes.

 

Though not specified, these presumably carry personnel and equipment necessary for the deployment to Egypt, and must make it safely to Port Said.

 

This group lies conveniently sandwiched (in fact, protected) between the Varyag and Tashkent groups.

 

It should be noted that this group only has a chance of appearing in your play of the scenario.

 

There are two nuclear powered attack submarines, a Victor II and a Victor III, performing barrier patrol west of your intended route.

 

There are also three diesel-electric types, an Egyptian Romeo (virtually useless), a Tango, and the vaunted Kilo mentioned earlier.

 

All three are operating more or less in the area where the Saratoga is reported to have been operating.

 

The Kilo actually only has a 25% chance of appearing in this area, and is more likely to appear west or southwest of Crete, in which case it is probably not the same Kilo.

 

The Romeo, meanwhile, has an even chance of appearing southwest of Crete (in which case it might be of better use).

 

There is another small oversight (imho) in the Orders that should be mentioned.

 

Group ZLS (the Grisha V trio) is directed to seek out and destroy US surface forces.

 

Quite obviously, these ships are completely unsuitable for confronting a US Navy carrier battle group, and instead are much more appropriately assigned to provide ASW support to your high value units as they advance to Port Said.

 

Instead, the Orders should probably have fingered group ZKS, the three SS-N-22 Sunburn armed Tarantul III missile craft.

 

But, again, these might not appear in every play of the scenario.

 

(Even so, I will explain later how this particular directive is moot in any event).

Part 4: Assessment and Prep

 

The first step, in most any scenario, is to gauge the forces at your disposal and figure out to best employ them to achieving the overall objective.

 

In doing so, the forces under your control are typically assigned lower level tasks or objectives, the successful achievement of which will bring you one step closer to the larger goal.

 

That larger goal, as stated in the previous post, is to get seaborne units safely to Port Said. All other forces - both air and sea - are directed to support that effort.

 

You don't know how many ships must reach Port Said, but suffice to say it is quite likely that the loss of your key naval power projection asset - Varyag, or too many of her high value escorts, or the merchants and tankers carrying precious cargo for the deployment, would be disastrous to the mission.

 

It is also likely that losses of aircraft or secondary naval assets (especially if they belong to client states rather than the Motherland) would be much more palatable to Moscow, especially if they take similar numbers of NATO assets with them.

 

So, what to do first?

 

Now that a 'pause' feature is available in HCE, by setting time compression to 'zero', I generally pause the scenario and take a closer look at the composition of the forces at my disposal, including the numbers and loadouts of aircraft and the formations of my naval groups.

 

i. Prepping Land Based Air

 

Let's take the big airbase at Antalya (Turkey) by way of example.

 

It is furthest west and south, and is closest to both the enemy and my naval forces.

 

Firstly, I can see it is protected by a long range air defence system, which in this case is the elderly Nike Hercules.

 

Under Settings/Staff Options, the default 'surface SAM fire rate' is set to 'Normal' and the 'AAW Auto-Fire Range' is set to '3/4 Max'. This means that the Nike Hercules will begin engaging enemy targets when they reach 75% of its maximum range, and will shoot two SAMs for every target.

 

Generally speaking, I leave this default setting in place or even move it down to 'Light' (one SAM per target).

 

If there is a sudden attack, or it looks like I might be overwhelmed, then I will bump up the firing rate to 'Normal' or 'Heavy'.

 

And, on the other side of the coin, if I have total control of the skies, I may even throttle back the engagement range to something like '1/2 Max' to conserve SAMs (a non-replenishable resource).

 

At Antalya, which is nicely furnished with two Vlarge runways, I can see that the tarmac is crowded with 60 aircraft.

 

These include a squadron equivalent (18x) of second gen MiG-23ML Flogger G fighters and another of multi-role MiG-29 Fulcrums, roughly half-dozen of each of the MiG-25M Foxbat E and MiG-31 Foxhound interceptors, and small numbers of MiG-25R high altitude reconnaissance aircraft, Tu-95 Bear D maritime reconnaisance aircraft, Tu-16 Badger J electronic warfare aircraft, and Il-38 May maritime recce and ASW patrol aircraft.

 

The MiG-23s and MiG-29s will probably be best employed in the combat air patrol (CAP) and point defense roles, and mostly in the sense of protecting the western approaches to my airfields (including Antayla) across the Aegean Sea.

 

They are fairly short ranged in both endurance and missile types, and so will be used to spoil NATO's attacks and probe their defenses.

 

I generally do not put fighters into formation patrols, and instead launch them and direct them specifically on an as needed basis.

 

Two-thirds of the Fulcrums are already configured for attack, but since they aren't really the best asset for this, and I have no immediate plans to use them in that role, I reconfigure them for the air-to-air mission. This will take 30 minutes to complete.

 

One thing I am sorely lacking at Antalya is airborne early warning and control (AEW&C).

 

The next best thing, however, is ample amounts of fighters, electronic warfare (EW) and reconnaissance aircraft, and a decent ground based air defence.

 

So, in this case I throw up a MiG-25R patrol to the northwest (and overland) and a Badger J to the southwest (and over water).

 

In this way, the Badger J can provide some EW coverage to the naval forces.

 

I also assign an Il-38 May to perform ASW patrol ahead of the Varyag group, again from within the formation of the airfield.

 

Now, what to do with the Bear D?

 

It is the premier asset for exposing US Navy carrier battle groups, but I only have a pair at my disposal.

 

Often times, I will hold back on Bear patrols (especially when they are limited in number) and let a carrier reveal itself in some other fashion, keeping the Bear D out of play (and out of danger) until it is necessary to help coordinate a multi-axis attack.

 

Here, I decide to send one Bear south to an orbit east of Port Said.

 

There are three reasons for this: (1) I do not yet know what surprises lie between me and my objective; (2) Port Said (already in the hands of my allies) has no coverage of its own, other than ground based radar; and (3) my primary objective is not to destroy the Saratoga, but to get my own forces safely from Point A to Point B.

 

Lastly, there are the big and fast MiG-25s and MiG-31s.

 

The -31s are more capable overall than the -25s, with better endurance and weapons, but the Foxbats do make up for some of that with raw, unadulterated speed.

 

I decide to use the MiG-31s to bolster the barrier combat air patrol (BARCAP) between the carrier and my naval groups, while the MiG-25s will conduct 'slash and burn' offensive counter-air missions against NATO aircraft flying out of Greek airfields.

 

ii. Naval Formations

 

The most obvious choice of examples here is the Varyag group.

 

I can tell immediately from using the 'Formation Editor' that I do not like the way this group is arranged.

 

The zone sizes (set at 9, 13, 17 and 50 nm) I will leave alone, but the ships and subs within the formation need better organization if they are to have the best chances of surviving the transit to Port Said.

 

They passed through the Bosporous bottleneck, and survived the island strewn Aegean, but this is the Med.

 

It is quite likely that NATO could have attack submarines lurking here.

 

My first priority, then, is to arrange the formation in such a way as to reduce risk of submarine attack.

 

It is more like an exercise in preventative damage control, to be honest, because there is actually very little I could do to prevent a submarine from penetrating my screen.

 

What I am aiming at, instead, is to make it more likely that he will be detected (and with any luck, destroyed) before he can sink my most valuable assets.

 

At the core of the formation, in Zone 1 or the main body, I assign the carriers Varyag and Moskva, the four merchants, the Dubna class oiler Irkut, and the replenishment ship Dnestr.

 

I am looking for the best area air defense asset as well, which is obviously the Azov, but she is in a quadrant well to the north (and behind the group) all by her lonesome.

 

This makes little sense to me, and so I reassign Azov to the center alongside the carriers.

 

I could put her in Zone 2 or the AAW ring, but I have other fairly capable (but ultimately less valuable) assets I can put here: a Kara, Sovremennyy, and Kashin.

 

In Zone 3 or the ASW ring, I place the Kresta II class ASW cruiser and the three Krivak frigates.

 

Lastly, in Zone 4 or the picket ring, I place the Victor I and II class attack boats.

 

In each case, I space my individual ships and submarines as evenly as possible while also orienting the most capable units along both the route of my advance and the most likely axes of attack, in this case south and west, respectively.

 

My best speed is 16 knots, and as I have no intention of doing anything other than making for Port Said, I am not terribly worried about the rear approaches to my formation.

 

iii. Naval Air

 

As for air patrols within my formation, I am hesitant to do this.

 

Telltale emissions from orbiting Su-27K or MiG-29K fighters flying CAP would give away my group's position.

 

I could put them up but keep them radar silent, but this defeat the purpose. Even so, they might be detected by an enemy patrol.

 

The same is true of my Yak-44 (cough, E-2C) or Helix helos in the AEW role.

 

Instead, I choose to send out only a small ASW patrol of one Helix and one Hormone helos, and instead rely more heavily on the shore based Il-38 and the pair of Victors accompanying me.

 

Why not a heavier ASW patrol, given the risk of enemy submarines?

 

Because I know the Saratoga is out there, and that means F-14 Tomcats. And that means AIM-54 Phoenix.

 

The AI has no qualms about shooting its precious AIM-54s at my helos, and even one or two Tomcats could strip out a heavy toll of helos in short order.

 

And of course there's also the increased risk of group detection from their AWG-9 radars.

 

In the end, I elect to send a Yak-44 to an orbiting AEW&C patrol as far west as I dare, and that is the eastern edge of the Tashkent group, behind the SA-N-6 coverage afforded by Slava.

 

Here it can provide early warning for the big naval groups as well as a good portion of the Turkish coast along the Aegean.

 

I know that the AI will be gunning for my Yak at game start, and I cannot send it too far forward to risk it being overwhelmed or fall into range of the dreaded AIM-54.

 

Along with the Yak I send a pair of Flankers, who join up with a pair of Foxhounds out of Antalya, and together form a BARCAP patrol at the western edge of the Tashkent group, a little more than a hundred nautical miles west of Varyag.

Part 5. Known Knowns and Known Unknowns - the Enemy Order of Battle

 

Sorry, Mr. Rumsfeld.

 

At game start, we know that NATO has three airfields in Greece, to which substantial forces have been forward deployed and to which remnants of Israeli and Turkish air forces may have escaped.

 

It also has a more distant airfield in Italy.

 

Perhaps most dangerously (at least in some respects), the enemy has a carrier battle group centred on the USS Saratoga, last believed to be operating somewhere southeast of Italy (and roughly 500 or 600 nm away from Varyag).

 

There is nothing in the Orders about enemy submarine activity, but given that we are directed to "conduct active ASW operations" while enroute to Port Said, and given that we are given the assets to do so, I surmise that there is a strong possibility of enemy submarine presence.

 

We also know, from our intel report, that enemy satellite reconnaissance has compromised any chance at deception.

 

The enemy knows where we are.

 

That being the case, we can expect NATO to attempt to seize the initiative, and immediately launch a counter-attack against both our newly seized airfields in Turkey and against Varyag (and any ships found in company with her).

 

Next, the game is afoot!

Part 6. Game Start - NATO Attacks

 

At game start, you will almost immediately detect two enemy units, courtesy of your electronic warfare, reconnaissance and AEW&C assets, these enemy units being: (1) a US Navy E-2C Hawkeye, giving you a good idea of the rough position of the Saratoga; (2) probably an EA-6B Prowler along much the same bearing; and (3) multiple F-15C Eagles operating out of Greece.

 

Things began to develop very quickly after that.

 

i. The Demise of Group ZKS

 

Remember group ZKS, our little merry band of three Tarantul III missile craft ordered to confront the enemy surface force?

 

Well, that's a lofty goal at the best of times. In this particular scenario, its an entirely pointless order. Here's why ...

 

They are too far out from under defensive cover to survive for very long at all, and secondly, they have little hope of penetrating Saratoga's defensive screen on their own.

 

Group ZKS will always appear (when it appears) at the western edge of the Sea of Crete, more than 200 nm west of the nearest friendly ship.

 

It is badly exposed, and because of the lack of a terrain model in HCE, it cannot hope to hide out among the islands and wait for a chance to strike.

 

Instead, it is always quickly detected by the E-2C Hawkeye patrol from the Saratoga, and then subjected to NATO antiship attack.

 

Typically this comes as a combination of Kormoran 2 missiles launched from Italian Tornado IDS strike aircraft, as well as Tomahawk Anti-Ship Missile (TASM) variants courtesy of the US Navy.

 

NATO's attack is brutally effective, amounts to overkill, and rapidly ends the adventures of our little band of Tarantuls.

 

ii. NATO strikes

 

Your Yak-44 (aka E-2C) and/or BARCAP will also soon detect a horde of NATO aircraft streaming out from the airfields in Greece.

 

These are an assortment of strike aircraft (including Tornado IDS, F-111F and several flavours of Mirage), together with USAF F-15s and Italian F-104ASA Starfighters conducting 'sweep and escort'.

 

Its quite possible that you won't pick up the strikers (which are flying low and maintaining radar silence) until they are quite close to your Turkish airfields at Antalya and Konya, but the F-15s should show up nicely.

 

The NATO jets headed to Akrotiri (in Cyprus) will also have to pass closely by the Varyag and Tashkent groups, and will be more readily detected by your Yak-44.

 

In either case, here's where you should immediately start launching MiG-23ML Flogger G fighters to respond.

 

You could send MiG-21 Fishbed N fighters from Konya, but these do not play well against the F-15.

 

Heck, the MiG-23 only plays slightly better against the F-15, but at least it has medium range missiles and decent speed and maneuverability.

 

You should resist the urge to use up your BARCAP (the MiG-31 and Su-27K patrols), and also resist the urge to send land based MiG-29 or seaborne MiG-29K. You will need these later.

 

Instead, pair your MiG-23s with the MiG-25M Foxbat E.

 

That way, the MiG-25 can go head to head with the Eagles while your Floggers concentrate their efforts on the strike packages.

 

Flying at well over Mach 2, the MiG-25s can easily slip in and out of AIM-7M Sparrow range while loosing their own longer range AA-6A Acrids.

 

The Acrids don't have a great kill probability (PK), but at least they will disrupt the F-15s' efforts at escort and give your more plentiful MiG-23s a better chance of dealing with them.

 

You will probably have to use a sizeable portion of your MiG-23s and most or all of the MiG-25s in this defensive counter-air encounter, but with any luck you will ravage the NATO strike packages and your airfields will remain completely intact.

 

If you're especially successful, you will take out more than a few F-15s.

 

Just as the NATO attack is melting away, this is when the Tomcats of Navy air wing CVW-17 arrive.

 

iii. Beyond Visual Range - Tackling the Turkeys

 

The US Navy F-14 Tomcats will typically appear near Crete, having responded to both your orbiting Yak-44 and your BARCAP.

 

Because the range of their AIM-54 Phoenix missile is so immense (still 110 nm in this battleset ... yay, says Tony), your MiG-31 and/or Su-27K might already be within range when the F-14s pop into view.

 

But don't panic. What will follow is almost always an exercise in geometry.

 

I should add that the BARCAP has been placed with the MiG-31s loitering at Vhigh altitude, while the Su-27K Flankers are loitering at Low.

 

This is not only to provide better radar coverage (because at this point their radars are active), but also to set up an F-14 attack for likely failure.

 

As a further note, as soon as the enemy F-14s appear, immediately launch another full BARCAP patrol to replenish the first as the latter will soon be out of missiles and/or fuel.

 

I usually let the F-14s close the distance, and often shoot Phoenix first, before I respond.

 

If your Flankers are slightly further out than the Foxhounds, they will get first attention and you will see the Phoenixes go after them.

 

They can turn and run away, while the MiG-31s are free to engage the F-14s.

 

You may have to take turns doing this, depending on the number of F-14s, but eventually they will be out of Phoenix and you can pick them apart with AA-9 Amos and AA-10 Alamo C.

 

Under no circumstances should you ever permit F-14s to get within missile range of your AEW&C or formation patrols.

 

It is likely that you will face two or three groups of F-14s, all at once or in rapid succession.

 

In either case, tackling the Turkeys will occupy and exhaust a sizeable portion of your available BARCAP.

 

But these F-14 raids will subside, and that's when you strike with the heavies.