May 27, 201214 yr From what I've been reading, Europe and its vicinity in 2020 might a lot like the "Great Powers" before World War I. The main players... * E.U. * Russia and its allies (Belarus, some of the Black Sea nations, etc.) * An alliance of Turkey and Israel (and some of their allies, perhaps Georgia) Wild card players who are trying to be independent of these blocs include Norway (not part of the E.U.), Ukraine, and Kazakhstan; the major North African states don't qualify as great powers but are strong enough to make a difference in a conflict (e.g., Russia and Egypt are stronger than Russia by itself). I am assuming that Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Algeria do not form a united power bloc and, in fact, might be at odds with each other at times, especially as new governments rise and fall following the Arab Spring. They represent four additional wild cards. How likely is this scenario, on a scale of 1 to 10? This is with 1 being "Okay, Mark, time for your medication" and 10 being "This is what will happen. No doubt." Assuming it is a likely overview of the power blocs we might see in 10 years, what are the most likely points of conflict...who is most likely to start shooting at whom, and what would they be quarreling over?
May 28, 201214 yr The odds of Russia allying with any of the Baltic states is a 1 (it's closer to .00000001, but for the sake of your question I'll make it a 1 - extremely slim due to existing animosities). An alliance between TUrkey and Israel is also a 1 (although they enjoyed very good relations in the past, they are currently on the outs due to the Palestinian issue). One possible alliance that is very plausible (about a 6 to 7) is the EE forces of the BlackSeaFor (Romania and Bulgaria) joing Ukraine, in coming to the aide of Georgia, if Russia were again to try sme shenanigans. Turkey would likely sit things, because they are in NATO and to prevent hostilities from entering the Med (an utlerior motive would be to enter the power vacuum after the hostilities are over with). A NA alliance could be a likelihood (about a 6 to 7), buillt on the Muslim Brotherhood foundation. The newly formed Egyptian and Libyan governments stand with Algeria and Morocco to oppose European expansionism (perceived from businesses trying to capitalize off of market and business development by European companies after the dust settles from the various Arab revolts). Mgellis - There is fodder here for numerous scenarios. Thanks for letting me think utside the box.
May 30, 201214 yr An alliance between TUrkey and Israel is also a 1 (although they enjoyed very good relations in the past, they are currently on the outs due to the Palestinian issue). Latest take on that break up here.
Create an account or sign in to comment